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WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER


NYCSNOWMAN2020
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the last 25 years have seen great winters and horrible ones like this year,,,

since 1993-94  (26 years) the Number of times snowfall was

00-09.9".....3...97-98...01-02...11-12...

10-19.9".....6...94-95...96-97...98-99...99-00...06-07...07-08

20-29.9".....3...08-09...12-13...18-19...

30-39.9".....3...00-01..15-16...16-17...

40-49.9".....5...02-03...03-04...04-05...05-06...17-18...

50-59.9".....4...93-94...09-10...13-14...14-15...

60 plus".....2...95-96...10-11...

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

there's really no abnormally cold air anywhere.  I think we pull a perfect game/no hitter and go the way of the great snowless winters like 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02, etc.

Although 1997-98 did have one meaningless wet snowfall event on the first day of Spring.

 

And holy sht what a storm that was. 17" of tree snapping glue! It fell in just a few hours with insane winds and the temp dropped 30 degrees while it was happening. That was one of the most memorable and damaging storms of the last 25 years where I live.

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the last 25 years have seen great winters and horrible ones like this year,,,

since 1993-94  (26 years) the Number of times snowfall was

00-09.9".....3...97-98...01-02...11-12...

10-19.9".....6...94-95...96-97...98-99...99-00...06-07...07-08

20-29.9".....3...08-09...12-13...18-19...

30-39.9".....3...15-16...16-17...

40-49.9".....5...02-03...03-04...04-05...05-06...17-18...

50-59.9".....4...93-94...09-10...13-14...14-15...

60 plus".....2...95-96...10-11...

 

 

Utilizing NOAA data, I did a couple of quick calculations. NYC-Central Park's mean snowfall for 1990-2020 is 30.1", and their median snowfall is about 27". The median, as you know, is a very indicative number, as it represents the relative frequency of above versus below normal snowfall winters. So, the 27" is fairly good, given the proximity to the mean, suggesting that there's an almost equal split of snowier than normal versus less snow than normal winters in NYC (I would guess probably 45% snowier than normal / 55% less snow than normal). The farther south one heads, the worse the median. For example, Washington DC sees much more below normal snowfall winters than above normal, so their mean snowfall is arguably inflated by a relatively small number of major winters. Conversely, I would guess Boston's median is almost identical to their mean.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This will go down as one of the worst winters of my lifetime. Just endless rain and mild weather. I can’t get over the lack of cold weather. It has literally been March here for the last three months. It most definitely can’t get any worse IMBY next winter. So I guess there is that...

I agree with the 3 months of March comparison.

The rainy weather has really ramped up after a rather benign January, which just ups the dreariness of it all. 

Don't see the active pattern ending anytime soon.

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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Utilizing NOAA data, I did a couple of quick calculations. NYC-Central Park's mean snowfall for 1990-2020 is 30.1", and their median snowfall is about 27". The median, as you know, is a very indicative number, as it represents the relative frequency of above versus below normal snowfall winters. So, the 27" is fairly good, given the proximity to the mean, suggesting that there's an almost equal split of snowier than normal versus less snow than normal winters in NYC (I would guess probably 45% snowier than normal / 55% less snow than normal). The farther south one heads, the worse the median. For example, Washington DC sees much more below normal snowfall winters than above normal, so their mean snowfall is arguably inflated by a relatively small number of major winters. Conversely, I would guess Boston's median is almost identical to their mean.

In the 151 years of record keeping at Central Park, the average snow fall is 28.8 inches per season and the median is 27.1 inches so very little variation in the two numbers. I've never run the numbers for Boston and WDC but I would agree with your guess. I would think Bostons mean and median like NYC's are within a few inches of each other.  In a place like Washington where the average snowfall is in the mid teens, a couple of 50 inch seasons will skew the average much more than a couple of 5 inch winters will.

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is disappointing. From having read his past tweets, it’s difficult to see any rational basis for the suspension.

I agree. They think that it was a mistake or some type of targeted troll activity. He has one of the best climatology related accounts on twitter.
 

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/2020-01-30-cloudiest-stretch-january-midwest-chicago-minneapolis

Aren't Midwest Winters Always Cloudy?

In much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, an average January day is at least 70 percent cloud covered, according to an analysis from Alaska-based climatologist, Brian Brettschneider.

 

 

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is disappointing. From having read his past tweets, it’s difficult to see any rational basis for the suspension.

I agree.  He is absolutely not controversial from what I've seen.  He publishes incredibly insightful maps on a regular basis.  He has opinons for sure (who doesn't), and goes about defending them in quite the personable way that encourages discussion and debate. 'Happy warrior' is an apt description I'd say. 

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And Britain is getting the East Coast's winter - the tabloid Daily Mail's UK front page (not the US, the UK) is half full of stories on "Storm Ciara" which is blasting, with 90+ and 8+ mph winds, a story on surfers riding wages up a river, disruptions at airports.  Here's one: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7988499/Britain-faces-fresh-SNOW-ice-warning-tonight-tomorrow.html

They are already anticipating that this storm hitting now will be battering them this weekend.

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I am actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather and hopefully plenty of severe weather chances. By mid February I usually start getting tired of winter unless it has been a good winter for cold/snow. I wouldn't mind seeing a few high end storm threats develop though for the rest of February/March regardless of precipitation type.

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44 minutes ago, Pellice said:

And Britain is getting the East Coast's winter - the tabloid Daily Mail's UK front page (not the US, the UK) is half full of stories on "Storm Ciara" which is blasting, with 90+ and 8+ mph winds, a story on surfers riding wages up a river, disruptions at airports.  Here's one: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7988499/Britain-faces-fresh-SNOW-ice-warning-tonight-tomorrow.html

They are already anticipating that this storm hitting now will be battering them this weekend.

there's not much cold in Europe-they are also having a historically warm winter

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2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am actually starting to look forward to the warmer weather and hopefully plenty of severe weather chances. By mid February I usually start getting tired of winter unless it has been a good winter for cold/snow. I wouldn't mind seeing a few high end storm threats develop though for the rest of February/March regardless of precipitation type.

Its likely going to just be a continuation of drab miserable weather

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19 hours ago, gravitylover said:

And holy sht what a storm that was. 17" of tree snapping glue! It fell in just a few hours with insane winds and the temp dropped 30 degrees while it was happening. That was one of the most memorable and damaging storms of the last 25 years where I live.

wow we supposedly had 5" here but I dont remember it at all, sounds like it was a really wet kind of snow?  I guess Philly didn't get diddly as they ended up with a T for the entire season!

 

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18 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

Utilizing NOAA data, I did a couple of quick calculations. NYC-Central Park's mean snowfall for 1990-2020 is 30.1", and their median snowfall is about 27". The median, as you know, is a very indicative number, as it represents the relative frequency of above versus below normal snowfall winters. So, the 27" is fairly good, given the proximity to the mean, suggesting that there's an almost equal split of snowier than normal versus less snow than normal winters in NYC (I would guess probably 45% snowier than normal / 55% less snow than normal). The farther south one heads, the worse the median. For example, Washington DC sees much more below normal snowfall winters than above normal, so their mean snowfall is arguably inflated by a relatively small number of major winters. Conversely, I would guess Boston's median is almost identical to their mean.

funny thing is the standard deviation must be high since it's fairly uncommon around here to see winters close to the median or the mean, they're either much higher or much lower.

 

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15 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

In the 151 years of record keeping at Central Park, the average snow fall is 28.8 inches per season and the median is 27.1 inches so very little variation in the two numbers. I've never run the numbers for Boston and WDC but I would agree with your guess. I would think Bostons mean and median like NYC's are within a few inches of each other.  In a place like Washington where the average snowfall is in the mid teens, a couple of 50 inch seasons will skew the average much more than a couple of 5 inch winters will.

Notice how it was consistently above 30 inches and close to 35 inches a year at NYC during the first several decades of that dataset.

 

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2 hours ago, Pellice said:

And Britain is getting the East Coast's winter - the tabloid Daily Mail's UK front page (not the US, the UK) is half full of stories on "Storm Ciara" which is blasting, with 90+ and 8+ mph winds, a story on surfers riding wages up a river, disruptions at airports.  Here's one: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7988499/Britain-faces-fresh-SNOW-ice-warning-tonight-tomorrow.html

They are already anticipating that this storm hitting now will be battering them this weekend.

its rainy just like it is here.  A friend in Norway told me they haven't had any snow there at sea level either.

 

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21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow we supposedly had 5" here but I dont remember it at all, sounds like it was a really wet kind of snow?  I guess Philly didn't get diddly as they ended up with a T for the entire season!

 

If I recall it melted in 6 hours. I remember waking up to a couple slushy inches. It was a surprise as the night before it was forecast to stay rain and maybe end as snow showers 

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If I recall it melted in 6 hours. I remember waking up to a couple slushy inches. It was a surprise as the night before it was forecast to stay rain and maybe end as snow showers 

if that storm had gone as forecast we would have set a new record low for snowfall at 0.5"!

I think that would have been more memorable than slush that lasted for six hours lol.

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

if that storm had gone as forecast we would have set a new record low for snowfall at 0.5"!

I think that would have been more memorable than slush that lasted for six hours lol.

 

Yeah winter was long over by that point and I doubt any of that even stuck to pavement. But it still counted and kept us from breaking the record 

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6 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I agree.  He is absolutely not controversial from what I've seen.  He publishes incredibly insightful maps on a regular basis.  He has opinons for sure (who doesn't), and goes about defending them in quite the personable way that encourages discussion and debate. 'Happy warrior' is an apt description I'd say. 

he's a climate scientist who posts about warm records. the denier mob hates him

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

funny thing is the standard deviation must be high since it's fairly uncommon around here to see winters close to the median or the mean, they're either much higher or much lower.

 

The mode might be even more useful....what is the most common snowfall in an event, and what is the most common total for the winter....

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