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40/70 Benchmark

Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well climo for a -4 SD 850mb U-Wind Anomaly storm.  We've seen this before, it helps make educated guesses?

Go with climo when you have a big closed low going underneath....not some random monthly snow climo :lol:.

Well climo is based on random stuff, like air temps, water temps. Let’s hope u winds in early Dec produce the same result as early Jan

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Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

ICON is third in accuracy ahead of the GFS in the past 90 days and seems to have lead the way this whole time as Well.well done.

Icon is garbage

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If this thing pulls a Boxing Day move I’ll expect a rebound ala 2010-11.....I’d willingly give up an early storm for that....if not this winter can GFI

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After reviewing all the model suites, bufkit, soundings etc, this is what i came up with. I will adjust and issue a final call tomorrow morning before flakes start flying if needed. It's on the bearish side of most. Again confidence is low for rd 2. First WAA shot most pick up a couple to a few inches.

11_30.19_forecast_1.thumb.jpg.c393bbb5ef57bb6235887bd097e08fad.jpg

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It didn't take me awhile to warm up to the storm, imI just suspected precip type issues.

Pretty sure you were saying it wouldn’t be a blockbuster 2 days ago

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Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Yet it’s ahead of the GFS in accuracy. And the NAM just trended torward the solution it’s been showing for three days. Extending snows into Syracuse and buffalo now even

Gfs is the worst model no I’ll use inside 24 hours

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i listen to brad field weather person from ct he is going for more i 84 area in ct than some tv stations like 5-10 inches and he is on podcast and facebook . i say many going to low on totals in ct . i say cold air will be stronger than models show with low south of sne area. i also seen to many times that where models show the heavy snow and bands dont end up in that area. their is lots of cold air in the north east east.  i m forecasting 8 -- 12 inches for along i 84 in ct and north of that dont be surprise if it goes up .  near 10 inches in boston area. 4- 8 inches south of i 84 to i 95 in ct . prove 6- 10 inches.   THIS  forecast for sne area.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Snow. At least at that moment. 

Yea have been watching this for a bunch of cycles, eventually sleet for sure but those precip type maps are confusing. What will be will be but that’s not a sleet bitch

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