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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, OceanStWx said:

We don't hold. We update the forecast so that it at least has likely PoP. With the Euro and EPS supporting a NAM-lite scenario I need to have some moderate snow accumulation Tuesday.

Doesn't look like it because it has hourly enhancement all the way west to EEN or LEB. Maybe a weenie finger of f-gen.

Time to nap and then head in. I’m on TAF duty. Yay.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Here's our second map. Although I do believe in the dry slot for some portion of southern/eastern CT, I'm not quite a believer that we see as expansive a dry slot in CT or all that much rain near New Haven and points west. Already getting crap for cutting back in the 8-14 and 6-12 zones lol. 

second-map-for-12-1-to-12-3_orig.jpg

Where do u guys wharehouse prior storm maps

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19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I would go with 6-12 for you, wide range to account for variability with round 2 but i think you're a lock for a half a foot at that latitude and elevation.

I'll take 6 and be happy on 12/3... seems everyone gets that four days out pants off high, only to come back to reality with the numbers...qpf, H7, H85, all the thermodynamics at play, most like the clown maps and repost as gospel, no dgz explanation or anything, I personally got excited because we were talking possible retro, or creeping low just rotting and slowly exiting, haven't had one of those in quite a while. seems all the storms of late have been quick hitter type. sorry just ranting. enjoy the snow everyone!

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but that is more iffy....need to get in the banding. 

Looking more likely.

 

I was honestly underwhelmed by the clown maps...not much difference, but it sounds like it was better aloft, I guess.

The evolution and track were not much different then the 12z Euro for round 2 but it handled the qpf differently at 18z up here which i think was underdone in all honesty.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The evolution and track were not much different then the 12z Euro for round 2 but it handled the qpf differently at 18z up here which i think was underdone in all honesty.

10:1 Map def. doesn't do rd 2 justice, agree with Steve, there.

I'd probably be closer to 20"

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Here's our second map. Although I do believe in the dry slot for some portion of southern/eastern CT, I'm not quite a believer that we see as expansive a dry slot in CT or all that much rain near New Haven and points west. Already getting crap for cutting back in the 8-14 and 6-12 zones lol. 

 

Damn, going big, my map def going to be more bearish than that.

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