• Member Statistics

    15,684
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Donahoe_WX
    Newest Member
    Donahoe_WX
    Joined
Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

49 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We really need some snow threats around here, and fast! :lol:

Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week.  Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week.  Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution.

garbage model

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

garbage model

It still has it's known biases. But, at least they're a known quantity, lol.  It should be catching on any day now. I like the GEFS current projection. Need a little slower, a little more phasing, and a little less cutting of the SLP and I'll be in the game. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.thumb.png.a98b77030c87036c1443176f55e816bd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is maybe not what you want to see if you are from Minnesota or Wisconsin, but the 12z GFS has -23 degrees at the Twin Cities at hour 144 (December 11th), and the 00z Euro has -19 degrees.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.thumb.png.a98b77030c87036c1443176f55e816bd.png

Trending towards the garbage model

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.thumb.png.a98b77030c87036c1443176f55e816bd.png

 

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is maybe not what you want to see if you are from Minnesota or Wisconsin, but the 12z GFS has -23 degrees at the Twin Cities at hour 144 (December 11th), and the 00z Euro has -19 degrees.

Will be a sad day in the wx world if nothing noteworthy comes of such an arctic intrusion as being depicted. Seems like something would take advantage of such a dynamic movement in the upper levels. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/2/2019 at 1:22 PM, buckeye said:

So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb.   Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and  2002/03 SST.    Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs.  

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after :shiver: in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after :shiver: in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

Sounds like my winter of 1994 in NMI. I totally get it

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/20/2019 at 5:24 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Not sure who's off to a worse start this winter, joe or the gfs

thanks for playing.

14dTDeptUS.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

thanks for playing.

14dTDeptUS.png

Now do 10/31 to 11/21 added in since you cherry picked the only warm period since snow started falling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Now do 10/31 to 11/21 added in since you cherry picked the only warm period since snow started falling.

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless.

Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

On 11/18/2019 at 11:49 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a mild and wet pattern could set up into at least early December.

Guidance has been trending towards a -PNA, along with a neutral to perhaps +NAO/AO.

Might be a delayed, but not denied kind of situation for indian summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless.

Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

0-4 above normal is barely noteworthy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

0-4 above normal is barely anything.

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself.

Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself.

Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

It has been wet and seasonably mild that's about it. Though that is down here, up north it has been the opposite.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

Hopefully we'll be in a better place by then.

Would be nice to have a solid white Christmas. '17, '16 and '13 were, but only featured 1-2"...the last solid one was '10 later.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

Especially once the cold sets in for next week. Regardless of how long it lasts it's sure to have me begging for snow.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CoachLB said:

Last call 12/5/2019

4E4BDCC4-EA13-4EBA-8DCD-5C79689153F8.png

EA155D43-3F18-4F5C-8672-CDCCFE3310EB.png

Above normal for all the major cities in the east, color me shocked. He should just issue this forecast every year September 1st.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th.  00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th.  00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.

That storm looks great. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.