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IWXwx

Autumn/Winter 2019-2020 Banter/Complaint Thread

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm surprised at the relative lack of big lake snows there.  Ever since you moved from LAF back to where you are now I can't remember you having a major lake event there.  Maybe I just forgot lol.  I always figured anywhere from the IN/IL border and points east got blasted all the time during the winter.  Guess it isn't as common as I thought.

I wish that were true.  If I had to guess I'd say Lake county IN gets a les event of 6+ (talking all or mostly les, not 5" of synoptic followed by a couple inches of les) once every few years on average, with the eastern part of the county having a little better chance than west.  Probably the standout event since I moved back was 3/14/2017.  It had the heaviest snow rates I have ever witnessed... a little over 4"/hr and it was actually the whole hour and not an extrapolated thing of it snowing an inch in 15 minutes.  Wish I would've been here for the Jan 2014 event, that was a real big dog les with about 2 feet that fell very quickly.  

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Was looking at some tornado data from 2019 and it appears something very unusual happened in Illinois.  No (E)F2+ tornadoes.  That has only happened a couple times in the official record.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This winter really is pretty awful.  I'd give it a D or D- at this point.  The thing saving it from an F is the Halloween snow, which was pretty cool.  But other than that, it checks all the boxes for failure whether it's a lack of snow overall, lack of any remotely decent storm imby, terrible December (a month I prioritize), etc.  

It reminds me of some of those 1990s winters growing up.  Getting a 4-6" snow was a pretty big deal.  Really got spoiled between 1998 and 2007... off the top of my head I can think of 5 double digit storms in that timeframe with 2 of them being near/over a foot and a half.  It's been so bad I'd even take the GHD sleet repeat at this point lol  

Uhhhh...NO

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36 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Uhhhh...NO

Desperate times.  I wonder if my former LAF brother would agree.  I'm guessing not.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Desperate times.  I wonder if my former LAF brother would agree.  I'm guessing not.

Yeah, no. :D

I think this is just payback for us, for the run of winters in the LAF, from Feb 2007 to 2015. Had to pay the piper at some point...

Regardless, winter 2013-14 was my Cubs winning the WS moment. I still hope for good things, but I'm good if it doesn't happen. 

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I am beginning to wonder if we see the sun again this month. I dont understand why even the dry days have to be cloudy. Is it really that difficult to get one sunny day a week ?

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We might see the moon one night lol..

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday
Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Cloudy, with a high near 36.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 28.
Wednesday
A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Friday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

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1 hour ago, Snownado said:

I am beginning to wonder if we see the sun again this month. I dont understand why even the dry days have to be cloudy. Is it really that difficult to get one sunny day a week ?

What is the sun, this word does not compute.

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  No science here obviously lol.  But I really feel like this is going to be a bookend winter with a bunch of piss in the middle.  My area is below normal precip wise, liquid/frozen -30%, and above normal temp wise +10%.  Vegas odds are the rubber band snaps towards the middle to latter half of Feb to early March.  The overall storm track tendency hasn't really changed since Aug/Sept and is very favorable for a big dog around here if one of these can just tap some cold air.  Halloween cold air tap was a surprise.  The split flow ninoesque pattern that followed was a surprise.  But the potential deep winter cold air tap that is lurking to the north, and you can see it there, combined with this consistent storm track could very well lay down a late winter big dog.  Models are trending colder in fantasy land for once this season, not just cold but some real arctic air intrusion but without deep suppressive ridging. I just feel like something has to give this winter to make the stars align, we are way overdue.  All my years living next to the ocean and dealing with the tropics in the SE taught me one thing, it only takes one big one to even the score during years of drought.  

  Or maybe it's just me having visions of Hank Stram when I was 8 years old thinking anything is possible lol.

  

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On 1/24/2020 at 4:57 PM, IWXwx said:

ZZZZZZZZZZZ........

Sunday
Cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday
Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Monday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Wednesday
Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 29.
Thursday
Cloudy, with a high near 39.
On 1/24/2020 at 4:59 PM, Hoosier said:

No sun in sight.   A Spartman special.

9 hours ago, Snownado said:

I am beginning to wonder if we see the sun again this month. I dont understand why even the dry days have to be cloudy. Is it really that difficult to get one sunny day a week ?

January 2017 analog unfolding. Maybe worse......the late December 1991-early January 1992 analog, as well. :devilsmiley:
Based on observations from wunderground.com, during the latter analog, Dayton was without sunshine for 11 consecutive days from December 28, 1991 to January 7, 1992.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1991-12-28
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1991-12-29
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1991-12-30
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1991-12-31
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-1
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-2
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-3
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-4
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-5
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-6
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/oh/vandalia/KDAY/date/1992-1-7

I see Chicago last had any sunshine back on last Tuesday. NWS in Chicago has no sunshine through at least Wednesday. If that happens, it would at least tie the 4th cloudiest stretch on record of 8 days that occurred just back on January 22-29, 2017.
 

 

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On 1/25/2020 at 5:37 PM, Jackstraw said:

We might see the moon one night lol..

Tonight
Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Monday
Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Cloudy, with a high near 36.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 28.
Wednesday
A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Friday
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

 

On 1/25/2020 at 6:08 PM, Stebo said:

What is the sun, this word does not compute.

 

i feel like its been cloudy, rainy, and 25-35F for three months. if we’re going to open the new “Australian and New Zealand subantarctic islands” subforum i at least want there to be god damn penguins

51A01D59-F1B6-4C7C-9148-D60F8053A163.jpeg.1c83d120f04014ab6c787a88e40659ff.jpeg

 

 

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actually we could have just merged with NE as the st pierre & miquelon sub-subforum but that’d be horrible and like, the southern cross flags are cooler than the tricolor anyway

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On 1/25/2020 at 4:59 PM, Snownado said:

I am beginning to wonder if we see the sun again this month. I dont understand why even the dry days have to be cloudy. Is it really that difficult to get one sunny day a week ?

This time of year arctic air masses bring the sun. Hence not much sun this month

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7 hours ago, sokolow said:

 

 

i feel like its been cloudy, rainy, and 25-35F for three months. if we’re going to open the new “Australian and New Zealand subantarctic islands” subforum i at least want there to be god damn penguins

51A01D59-F1B6-4C7C-9148-D60F8053A163.jpeg.1c83d120f04014ab6c787a88e40659ff.jpeg

 

 

Yessss I want penguins too!

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I had to laugh at Megan's opening to this afternoon's short term discussion from IWX:

WELL IF YOU'RE ANYTHING LIKE ME, YOU ARE GETTING KIND OF CRANKY 
REGARDING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DREARY CONDITIONS 
THIS WEEK. I WISH I COULD OFFER SOME HOPE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE 
STUCK WITH THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM.

Tell us what your really think. :lol:

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I had to laugh at Megan's opening to this afternoon's short term discussion from IWX:

WELL IF YOU'RE ANYTHING LIKE ME, YOU ARE GETTING KIND OF CRANKY 
REGARDING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DREARY CONDITIONS 
THIS WEEK. I WISH I COULD OFFER SOME HOPE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE 
STUCK WITH THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM.

Tell us what your really think. :lol:

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days.  Ain't no happy little trees or bushes.  Just dreary depression day after day after day. :facepalm:

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6 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I had to laugh at Megan's opening to this afternoon's short term discussion from IWX:

WELL IF YOU'RE ANYTHING LIKE ME, YOU ARE GETTING KIND OF CRANKY 
REGARDING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL DREARY CONDITIONS 
THIS WEEK. I WISH I COULD OFFER SOME HOPE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE 
STUCK WITH THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM.

Tell us what your really think. :lol:

4 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days.  Ain't no happy little trees or bushes.  Just dreary depression day after day after day. :facepalm:

Next week, guys. We're done. We can write off this week knowing how it's going to be. Next week ought to be a little bit more sunnier.

Indianapolis mets are apparently starting to hug the January 2017 analog already.
https://fox59.com/2020/01/27/too-many-cloudy-days-and-more-on-the-way-cloudiest-january-in-three-years/

Won't be long until Chicago mets start talking about the cloudiest January on record in 1998, as well as the top 4 cloudiest streaks below:
Chicago’s longest strings of cloudy weather:
1. 12 days: December 29, 1991 – January 9, 1992
2. 10 days: December 16-25, 1895
3. 9 days: February 4-12, 1897
4. 8 days: January 22-29, 2017

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Not that anyone cares about what winter should be...but it has been a complete joke in pretty much the entire Lower 48, with respect to getting more than 1-2 days of cold weather at a time.  I am reading in other sub-forums how there is no cold weather too; it's happening everywhere, not just here.  Usually, when one region is mild, another is cold...but not this year.

At ORD, in the 75-day period since November 15th, there have only been 11 days with a low temp colder than 19F.  That is ridiculous.  Even in our horribly bad climo, you'd expect about 50% of the days to have low temps colder than 19F...and it "should" be 75+% if we had anywhere close to a decent winter climate.  Most winter mornings should be colder than 19F.  Not 11 out of 75.  It's not even in the same ballpark compared to what it should be.

And, only 2 days in the single digits.  No sub-zero days.

Where is the cold air?  Where are the clippers?  I don't think there has been one clipper all winter, for anyone in our subforum...or in the entire Lower 48.  Am I missing something??  What is happening??  I know someone will chime in and say "we've had winters like this before"...but that only makes it worse, because it reinforces how bad our climo is.  I which people would stop with the sugar-coating.  It's ok to admit that something is bad.  We should all unite in our complaining, as opposed to arguing whose snowfall call is right 5 days out.  The result is what matters...and if it's not winter-like, who cares.

 

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15 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

  We should all unite in our complaining, as opposed to arguing whose snowfall call is right 5 days out.

Do you think that will change the weather?

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Winter is over.  We had it in November.  Now I look forward to spring.  Saw my first robin of the season today on grass at the base of a small tree by the Greenfield public library.  Yes, I know that some robins stay here thru the winter, going into deeper forest cover, and then come out to lawns when temps get warmer.  But today is the earliest in my life I can ever recall seeing the first robin of the season.  It will be interesting to see who wins out during the month of Feb......the robin or the CPC forecast of colder temps.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Not that anyone cares about what winter should be...but it has been a complete joke in pretty much the entire Lower 48, with respect to getting more than 1-2 days of cold weather at a time.  I am reading in other sub-forums how there is no cold weather too; it's happening everywhere, not just here.  Usually, when one region is mild, another is cold...but not this year.

At ORD, in the 75-day period since November 15th, there have only been 11 days with a low temp colder than 19F.  That is ridiculous.  Even in our horribly bad climo, you'd expect about 50% of the days to have low temps colder than 19F...and it "should" be 75+% if we had anywhere close to a decent winter climate.  Most winter mornings should be colder than 19F.  Not 11 out of 75.  It's not even in the same ballpark compared to what it should be.

And, only 2 days in the single digits.  No sub-zero days.

Where is the cold air?  Where are the clippers?  I don't think there has been one clipper all winter, for anyone in our subforum...or in the entire Lower 48.  Am I missing something??  What is happening??  I know someone will chime in and say "we've had winters like this before"...but that only makes it worse, because it reinforces how bad our climo is.  I which people would stop with the sugar-coating.  It's ok to admit that something is bad.  We should all unite in our complaining, as opposed to arguing whose snowfall call is right 5 days out.  The result is what matters...and if it's not winter-like, who cares.

 

Ive never seen a soapbox like yours lol.  You have a right to your opinion but so does everybody else. You literally just said the climo in the entire lower 48 is terrible. I don't know why you don't just move to the North Pole lol. I have seen nobody sugar coating this Winter, if anything, any optimism it is immediately shot down with negativity.  Yes, the Winter as a whole has sucked. Yes, we have had many winters like this before. And yes, most other sub forums have it worse than us.  I spent lots of time outdoors whenever there has been snow this season, and I highly suggest others do the same. I said it last week and I will say it again, it absolutely kills me when I see someone, assumably sitting inside, complaining about how the long range looks bad when they have snow outside their window. Then when its melted, i do indoor activities lol.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

I know someone will chime in and say "we've had winters like this before"...but that only makes it worse, because it reinforces how bad our climo is.  I which people would stop with the sugar-coating.  It's ok to admit that something is bad.  We should all unite in our complaining, as opposed to arguing whose snowfall call is right 5 days out.  The result is what matters...and if it's not winter-like, who cares.

 

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

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38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

I hear you, but it’s all relative to what you hope for. Yes, 2013-14 actually felt like winter...but that’s how winter should be. Cold and snow. But December 2013 wasn’t that great and there was no White Christmas, so it could have been better. But overall, I agree it was pretty good. 
 

The only cool summer I remember here was 1992. No argument there. But 98 out of 100 summers have a majority of days that are 80F+ from June 10th through September 10th. In other words, it consistently feels like summer during summer. I don’t wake up on August 1st and think that it might be a cold day. But February 1st is never guaranteed to be a wintry day. Not many winters here are consistently wintry. We are all smart people; we know this, but no one wants to admit it. “Wintry” means a high temp in the 20s or colder with 2+ inches of snow cover. 
 

For people who love severe weather, I imagine that Chicagoland is not the best place to be either, due to the cool lake messing things up in the spring. Occasional bouts of severe weather, but you can’t count on it. And in the open plains, the visibility and openness is much better, to actually see, enjoy, and/or chase the storms. I guess I’m the andyhb of winter weather. Can you believe it - I made a post about a non winter aspect of weather. :lmao:

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30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

How is our climo bad? It is what it is for where we live. We have cold/snowy winters...and we have mild/snow-less winters. Mind you, we just had a top 5 coldest/snowiest winter just a few years ago. No different than in the warm season either... We have cool or severe t'storm-less summers...and we have hot and active severe t'storm summers.

Actually, the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England have have had a lot of snowy winters the past 20 years.  Averages exist for a reason, and unfortunately balancing out does happen.

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