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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@CarlislePaWx will like the 0z nam's predict of 4-8" in central Cumberland County.  Temps still questionable but fun to see the lollipops of extreme snow with the upper low interaction. 

Wow!  That's a nice looking surprise.  It's funny how many of the previous runs showed Cumberland county...especially central....as a sort of snow-hole.  Now it's flipped...haha.  Honestly, if I can just get 2" to cover the grass from this event it will be a win for December 2nd.  Like others have said I just can't figure out how CTP is playing down the snow potential big-time for the entire LSV.  Run after run from different models have painted 2" or more area-wide and yet they just say 'nah'.  Guess we'll have to wait until the overnight updates to see if they change their mind.  At least they've dropped the temps back from 41 to 37 for the high tomorrow for me last time I checked.  Regardless, it's an event to watch and filled with surprises yet to come.

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15 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP calls for less than half an inch for Harrisburg.

I posted a few hours back about the major differences between CTP & Mt. Holly with their snow forecasts for tomorrow.

CTP must be just waiting to see what happens before they forecast anything for the LSV. 

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I posted a few hours back about the major differences between CTP & Mt. Holly with their snow forecasts for tomorrow.
CTP must be just waiting to see what happens before they forecast anything for the LSV. 

That kind of defeats the purpose of making a forecast!

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7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow!  That's a nice looking surprise.  It's funny how many of the previous runs showed Cumberland county...especially central....as a sort of snow-hole.  Now it's flipped...haha.  Honestly, if I can just get 2" to cover the grass from this event it will be a win for December 2nd.  Like others have said I just can't figure out how CTP is playing down the snow potential big-time for the entire LSV.  Run after run from different models have painted 2" or more area-wide and yet they just say 'nah'.  Guess we'll have to wait until the overnight updates to see if they change their mind.  At least they've dropped the temps back from 41 to 37 for the high tomorrow for me last time I checked.  Regardless, it's an event to watch and filled with surprises yet to come.

 I am surprised by their zone forecast. Seems a small amount of people may get under bands and get big snow but everyone may get some decent periods of at least snow TV...and their zones make it sound like a passing shower.  

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 I am surprised by their zone forecast. Seems a small amount of people may get under bands and get big snow but everyone may get some decent periods of at least snow TV...and their zones make it sound like a passing shower.  

To CTPs credit they talk accumulations. It’ll be hard to get accumulating snow tomorrow given timing, marginal temps and (lack of) intensity.

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For those whom are interested. I just walked in my front door. Started today at 5:15am. Now I get to go right to bed so I can leave at 7:00am to go to NYC. 

No sympathy from the boss, either. If there's no ban, I'll likely have to go. Gotta love it. Get home and run right to bed (without supper) so I can be rested enough (barely) to safely run tomorrow...FML...

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33 minutes ago, canderson said:

To CTPs credit they talk accumulations. It’ll be hard to get accumulating snow tomorrow given timing, marginal temps and (lack of) intensity.

I know I'm probably going to be alone on this one, but I think they're handling tomorrow well. They were "aggressive" in forecasting today's ice event that ended up producing a 5 minute period of sleet and zero ice accretion down this way. Now they're being a bit more conservative for tomorrow and people are critical about that.

I believe, admittedly without numbers to back this up, that playing things conservatively will work out better more often than being bullish. At least it seems that way to me. 

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8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I know I'm probably going to be alone on this one, but I think they're handling tomorrow well. They were "aggressive" in forecasting today's ice event that ended up producing a 5 minute period of sleet and zero ice accretion down this way. Now they're being a bit more conservative for tomorrow and people are critical about that.

I believe, admittedly without numbers to back this up, that playing things conservatively will work out better more often than being bullish. At least it seems that way to me. 

HRRR suggests most get no snow now but I guess my thought in mentioning the NWS was they could have put in the zones something like "Local areas of briefly heavy snow possible".    I agree they should not have listed accums too high. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

HRRR suggests most get no snow now but I guess my thought in mentioning the NWS was they could have put in the zones something like "Local areas of briefly heavy snow possible".    I agree they should not have listed accums too high. 

I don't really disagree with you. My main point is that CTP is often in a no-win situation. Last winter they were so bullish a couple of times that their forecasted amounts didn't seem to match weather logic. There was a storm in late January that cut...it seemed obvious that warm air aloft was going to significantly limit snowfall amounts. The storm was arriving on a Saturday. Early in the day CTP was forecasting 8"-10" for MDT when previous storms typically produced no more than 2"-3" in this general area. MDT ended up with 3". It was a pretty big bust and it wasn't the only one. 

To your point, there are always opportunities to improve communication with the public and perhaps yesterday was one such time.

Right now I have light white rain and 36.

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Treestand ob is much different this morning than Saturday’s with a steady light snow falling and about 1.5” on the ground (with ice left over on the trees). This is Tussey ridge around 1700’ in NW Huntingdon County.

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So is Central/East PA the screw zone for today? Quite the hole in the precipitation over here.

Side note, New Jersey issued a full commercial vehicle ban so I'm back home and don't have to go to NYC today.

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3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So is Central/East PA the screw zone for today? Quite the hole in the precipitation over here.

Side note, New Jersey issued a full commercial vehicle ban so I'm back home and don't have to go to NYC today.

Glad you aren't having to drive through the snowstorm! Yeah, HRRR paints an ugly picture - we'll see what happens. 

So what happens to those customers at the cruise terminal? As someone who has taken cruises back to NYC and hired car services to bring us home, being stranded there during a snowstorm would be ... awful lol.

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Glad you aren't having to drive through the snowstorm! Yeah, HRRR paints an ugly picture - we'll see what happens. 

So what happens to those customers at the cruise terminal? As someone who has taken cruises back to NYC and hired car services to bring us home, being stranded there during a snowstorm would be ... awful lol.

I suppose they have to find motel rooms either in the city or NWNJ and get picked up tomorrow. I'm sure it does suck, but if there is a commercial ban, we can't legally go in or over to get them. I risk points on my license and a personal fine, and the company risks a fine as well as getting shut down in place until the ban is lifted.

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7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I suppose they have to find motel rooms either in the city or NWNJ and get picked up tomorrow. I'm sure it does suck, but if there is a commercial ban, we can't legally go in or over to get them. I risk points on my license and a personal fine, and the company risks a fine as well as getting shut down in place until the ban is lifted.

If they're in Manhattan they can get to Penn Station very easily and at least get to Philly, so better there than stranded in say, Bar Harbor, Maine. 

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Always a good time, starting the season with a bust. I'm not feeling it for this season. Going to be a lousy one. 

Well...today's event was a crapshoot to begin with. This isn't a real bust unless you rely on snow maps.

 But then again maybe you're being sarcastic...:)

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4 hours ago, canderson said:

If they're in Manhattan they can get to Penn Station very easily and at least get to Philly, so better there than stranded in say, Bar Harbor, Maine. 

One cannot get stranded in Bar Harbor.  It's paradise.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

One cannot get stranded in Bar Harbor.  It's paradise.

In December before the holidays it wouldn't be necessarily where you want to get stuck after a cruise, with no way out, though. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

In December before the holidays it wouldn't be necessarily where you want to get stuck after a cruise, with no way out, though. 

If there wasn't the ban, it looks like I could have went in for them. Even over there in NJ on I-80 it's mostly wet. But...one never knows exactly how it'll play out, and if it would have gotten bad, and something happened, we'd be on the hook for it with the "well you shouldn't have been there in the first place".

So I guess better safe than sorry...

 

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