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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Might not be a lot of accumulation but it could be a fun little dynamic event for a while.

Exactly!  But if some areas can stay in the more intense banding for awhile they may squeeze out a couple inches.  It will be fun to watch it develop.

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I agree though the EC quick withdrawal of moisture bothers me.  I still think Eastern LSV has the best chance being the closest to the departing surface low. 

The 6z EPS ensemble still keeps the LSV in the in the game for 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow.

3508FC0F-BD05-4902-925B-DCB068DC7AF6.png

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2 minutes ago, daxx said:

Exactly!  But if some areas can stay in the more intense banding for awhile they may squeeze out a couple inches.  It will be fun to watch it develop.

I just ripped this gem of an HRRR run from the Mid Atlantic thread that was recently posted there.

 

E784B140-E4AE-4B28-8783-A13E960F01B0.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just ripped this gem of an HRRR run from the Mid Atlantic thread that was recently posted there.

 

E784B140-E4AE-4B28-8783-A13E960F01B0.jpeg

What’s the time for that? I pre salted some medical facilities last night for this morning but that looks nearly plow worthy. Nice!

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

If only the hrrr was accurate this far out. Sigh!

The hrrr plays the retrograde surface low game.  In fairness the Nam also did this for a panel.   Surface temps are above freezing for almost all of PA during this time so rates, rates, rates. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The hrrr plays the retrograde surface low game.  In fairness the Nam also did this for a panel. 

Yes, if we get into the wrap around deform band for a little while, we could be in store for a little more snow. We just need to see how it all plays out.

Here is that 12z NAM panel & another view of the snow map.

 

0768F023-4960-4348-B95D-EA0AECD053FA.png

B2820868-C206-4C8E-9DB4-EEFAB18833F8.png

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, if we get into the wrap around deform band for a little while, we could be in store for a little more snow. We just need to see how it all plays out.

Here is that 12z NAM panel & another view of the snow map.

 

 

 

Icon is sort of on board as well though a bit warmer so the precip is there but not as much coverage of snow. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon is sort of on board as well though a bit warmer so the precip is there but not as much coverage of snow. 

If we get any kind of intense band over us, I would not worry too much about surface temps. If it is a lot of light junk then yes. Of course the band would have to sit over an area for a time to cool everything down.  Right now I'm hoping to see snow fall from the sky.  Anything more would be great.  I picked up 1.4 inches last weekend on a fluke event,  maybe we can do the same here.

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23 minutes ago, daxx said:

I have good amount of sleet mixing in with the rain here.

We had some way down here as well.  Happened with the heavier rates.  Temps dipped to 34 but now back up to 37. 

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Short range Canadian models say yes to snow tomorrow in the LSV.

 

 

417D277E-9928-4989-9DF9-4DDB8802B33C.png

We know winter weather is near when the Herps Derps makes its first appearance. 

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12 minutes ago, daxx said:

Lucky you!  Still not set in stone where this sets up but it definitely has my attention now.

One thing I am going to point out...IF (stated in all Cap's with all the usual disclosures of what IF means) Lanco or really anyone in the LSV gets 4-6" of snow tomorrow and the rates are street stick worthy the NWS is going to be dished out some disdain.  The Zone's say rain/snow showers ending by 1PM with a high of 41.  Tomorrow is still a fairly busy travel day. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing I am going to point out...IF (stated in all Cap's with all the usual disclosures of what IF means) Lanco or really anyone in the LSV gets 4-6" of snow tomorrow and the rates are street stick worthy the NWS is going to be dished out some disdain.  The Zone's say rain/snow showers ending by 1PM with a high of 41.  Tomorrow is still a fairly buys travel day. 

This is all happening pretty fast on models.  Last night I had very little interest with setup. 

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

This is all happening pretty fast on models.  Last night I had very little interest with setup. 

I think it was something they probably should have been warning about a few days but everyone's focus was on today when today was never really a threat with the warm weather preceding it. An inch or two of snow and no one will say much but a plow-able snow will bring about complaints. 

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