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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

They pounded West Virginia in the tournament a few years back. I'm not too surprised that they beat Duke. In Cameron Indoor? Yeah, but not in general. 

That was the best sporting event I've ever attended live (and I've seen three World Series games). They should've beat ND but didn't get an obvious over the back call at the buzzer on a tipin and lost. F ND. 

They also beat a Shaka Smart VCU team in the tourney, which is funny now that Shaka is sucking it up at Texas. I'm so ready for him to be fired, he's awful. 

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Along the themes of a PBP, the EC continues the theme of Saturday being totally dry to the point that even night is fairly dry but nice area of mix/frz Sunday morning

image.thumb.png.c8e906490689cbe51c01c78eca960df7.png

 

 

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14 minutes ago, canderson said:

If this weekend is anything like today then it’ll be sunny and 10 degrees above forecast. What a bust here. 

There is Wind Advisory tonight & tomorrow! In your honor, I secured my trash cans !

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I need some advice concerning this High Wind Advisory for tonight & tomorrow.        

I am roasting a 20 pound turkey tomorrow morning and I am a little concerned about the possibility of a power outage ruining my family’s Thanksgiving Turkey.

Do you guys think that there will be many power outages in the area ? If so, should I consider roasting the turkey this evening & then heating it up tomorrow before I carve it ? I just don’t want an outage tomorrow to mess up the turkey in the middle of the roasting.

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57 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I need some advice concerning this High Wind Advisory for tonight & tomorrow.        

I am roasting a 20 pound turkey tomorrow morning and I am a little concerned about the possibility of a power outage ruining my family’s Thanksgiving Turkey.

Do you guys think that there will be many power outages in the area ? If so, should I consider roasting the turkey this evening & then heating it up tomorrow before I carve it ? I just don’t want an outage tomorrow to mess up the turkey in the middle of the roasting.

I’d seriously doubt it. These winds won’t be anything more than what we see every month or so, plus trees are mostly bare and it’s dry. Only gusting to the low 30s, that’s nothing.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Along the themes of a PBP, the EC continues the theme of Saturday being totally dry to the point that even night is fairly dry but nice area of mix/frz Sunday morning

image.thumb.png.c8e906490689cbe51c01c78eca960df7.png

 

 

Hopefully road, street, and sidewalk temps are 33 or above or there is nothing nice about that. I have to pick up in Wilkes-Barre @ 6:30am to go to the game. Unlike other charters which can be postponed if the roads are bad, this cannot since it's an NFL game and they will be tailgating...

And before anyone says anything...yes, I should move to Florida or back to Arizona, but the ONLY way that happens is via divorce.

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4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Hopefully road, street, and sidewalk temps are 33 or above or there is nothing nice about that. I have to pick up in Wilkes-Barre @ 6:30am to go to the game. Unlike other charters which can be postponed if the roads are bad, this cannot since it's an NFL game and they will be tailgating...

And before anyone says anything...yes, I should move to Florida or back to Arizona, but the ONLY way that happens is via divorce.

I think it’ll be fine. This thing looks to slow down so much there is no interaction. 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z EPS came in a little colder & provided a slight uptick in snow amounts for the weekend storm.

008F12BD-2054-49DC-AAE7-12EEBA55B41F.png

Having the nam on board makes me think our first travellers advisory (go old school) of the year is on tap sat nite.

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4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Wind is impressive! When will the fans get turned off?

happy thanksgiving men!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I just stepped outside to grab something out of the car trunk & I thought that I was going to have lift off down the street!

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I just stepped outside to grab something out of the car trunk & I thought that I was going to have lift off down the street!

I had to run to the store as I forgot potato’s 

I struggled to keep my truck on the road

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Personally, I thought the winds here around sunrise were worse than during times we're under High Wind Warnings. My house was shaking repeatedly.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

We have had a gust to 46 so far.  That is higher than anytime during the great wind storm of 2019 last winter.   Looking for some decent snow showers out here today. 

 

 

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Happy Turk Day all!

Hope we see some white this weekend.  Headed to cabin tomorrow so I will be largely MIA till Wed. 

Hope everyone gets some action (snow too :).

 

Nut

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro looks pretty close to something for us...

Yes...It looks interesting.   Waa precip looks much better than gfs frozen wise.  It even has some good precip on Monday. I still have my doubts for backside on Monday.  Hopefully it works out and we get frozen both days.

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26 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yes...It looks interesting.   Waa precip looks much better than gfs frozen wise.  It even has some good precip on Monday. I still have my doubts for backside on Monday.  Hopefully it works out and we get frozen both days.

Agree especially about Monday and the coastal development. I have zero expectations, just was noting that the European model verbatim would be awfully close to something.

Problem is...we do close misses really well.

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Agree especially about Monday and the coastal development. I have zero expectations, just was noting that the European model verbatim would be awfully close to something.
Problem is...we do close misses really well.

Key is the ULL pass. It keeps trending in the right direction and it’s game on.


.

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On 11/27/2019 at 2:34 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

I need some advice concerning this High Wind Advisory for tonight & tomorrow.        

I am roasting a 20 pound turkey tomorrow morning and I am a little concerned about the possibility of a power outage ruining my family’s Thanksgiving Turkey.

Do you guys think that there will be many power outages in the area ? If so, should I consider roasting the turkey this evening & then heating it up tomorrow before I carve it ? I just don’t want an outage tomorrow to mess up the turkey in the middle of the roasting.

So, we lost power in Marysville around 830am! The turkey had been roasting for 2 & a half hours when the power went out. I did some quick googling & learned that a turkey can be cooked on the grill. I fired up the gas grill & transferred the turkey from the oven to the grill. Thankfully I didn’t run out of propane. 3 hours later, the turkey was done right on time despite the power problem. It turned out to be good & tasty & was enjoyed by our family. Luckily, the power came back by the time our guests arrived around Noon. This will certainly be a memorable Thanksgiving!

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The last 2 runs of the EPS get most of CTP  into a few inches of snow with the passing of the upper level low & the coastal low.

It will be interesting to see how these pieces interact & track over the next couple of days. Either way, it looks like Sunday morning will be an icy mess of sleet & freezing rain. Hopefully the front end trends slightly colder so we could mix in a little snow before the flip to ice. Then the waiting game will be underway to see how nicely the upper level low & coastal decide to play.

96F6574E-E1EA-4451-A31C-66084DEB596C.png

3FB97AA6-EB08-4ECB-977F-4E9269D9177D.png

DD6BF96C-6CCD-4C04-9C7D-C3C1277749F0.png

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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep.

North half of PA gets nam'ed.  ULL goes a bit south and all of Pa is nam'ed.  Pipeline of moisture off the coast back into the cold air...coastal far enough away to not steal all the "thunder" 

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The 12z NAM brings in the sleet & freezing rain Overnight Saturday night & lasts through at least midday Sunday. Then Sunday night into Monday we flip back to snow with the interaction of the upper level low & the coastal. Snow amounts will depend on the final track & if anyone in CTP gets under any decent banding.

 

FE854879-CF6B-470A-9833-B10EB022677B.png

4B708B85-86F9-442B-9FAD-A26D4C61916B.png

BE41355C-502B-4B35-A8FC-49544102B8CD.png

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