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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did just notice some colder temps at MDT, 34 York which apparently had some clouds breaking and down to 31.  That's something at least. 

I'm at 30.7 right now.

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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm at 30.7 right now.

Get some temps into the mid to upper 20's then we have some chaos. Seems some of these temps are a few degrees below modeled. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Get some temps into the mid to upper 20's then we have some chaos. Seems some of these temps are a few degrees below modeled. 

Like you said, some breaks in the cloud cover here. Once they thicken back up I'm sure they will rise some.

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I'm down to 31.6 now just before 9:30.  Was at my sister's in northern NJ and returned home a few hours ago.  What I couldn't figure out is how Mt. Holly has them (Morris County) going from a mix over to all snow Monday morning with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation forecast by Monday night.  How can they be going from a mix to all snow during Monday while we are forecast to go from a mix over to all rain during Monday with no accumulations?  That difference does not make any sense to me.

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53 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'm down to 31.6 now just before 9:30.  Was at my sister's in northern NJ and returned home a few hours ago.  What I couldn't figure out is how Mt. Holly has them (Morris County) going from a mix over to all snow Monday morning with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation forecast by Monday night.  How can they be going from a mix to all snow during Monday while we are forecast to go from a mix over to all rain during Monday with no accumulations?  That difference does not make any sense to me.

CCB? I think rates are part of it.

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CCB? I think rates are part of it.

I guess so.  Intensity would definitely make a difference.  But the models have been consistently painting 1-2" for us by the end of the storm.  Most of that should be the Sunday night/Monday event.  Yet, State College says virtually no accumulations from part 2 for LSV region.  My own feeling is that once we go over to snow early Monday it won't go back to rain and temps will never reach 40 for highs like they currently are forecasting.  If the ULL does in fact pass right over us or just south of us that is where the lowest heights are located which should translate into frozen precip and not liquid IMHO.

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I post starting in the winter to give some perspective of what is going on in NEPA. I am in Waverly at mile marker 197 on 81 and '1540 elevation. 22 degrees at 10:30PM.

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Winter Storm Warning is up for 9-15 inches which would be big for the time of year. Have had three snow "events" to date with all three less than 2". 

It seems like prior  to the past  two years I spent most of my time from 2010-2017 smoking cirrus why you guys south of me have been getting crushed. Good end of winter in 2017 and decent snows in 2018. Hopefully we get widespread Miller B storms across the forum in 2019-fingers crossed!

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1 hour ago, daxx said:

Like you said, some breaks in the cloud cover here. Once they thicken back up I'm sure they will rise some.

Dew points are in the low to mid 20’s for most of CTP. Surface Temps will go down even further when precip begins.

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42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Dew points are in the low to mid 20’s for most of CTP. Surface Temps will go down even further when precip begins.

True, however I’m up to 35.7 degrees as of now. A 1.3 degree increase into 11:30 pm.

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29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

36 here at 6:45am. Hoping for a non-event so my wife can get out on the roads for North Carolina.

I think it's wet roads only.  Ec is also minoring out the Monday "event" as of now...for most except NE PA.  

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think it's wet roads only.  Ec is also minoring out the Monday "event" as of now.  

Nice batch of precip moving up into Adams/Franklin...my wife is heading over to 81 and taking it all the way down to 77. Think any of that precip is freezing on contact? 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Nice batch of precip moving up into Adams/Franklin...my wife is heading over to 81 and taking it all the way down to 77. Think any of that precip is freezing on contact? 

I do not think it is   Its 35 on my side of the mountain and plain rain and the Wunderground map shows just a station or two at or below freezing as of now and rain has already passed through all these locations.  So this morning, if I were driving, I would treat it like one of those "bridge freezes before roads" situations if on a small side road but I still cannot see any interstates freezing with all the traffic.  FWIW, the WWA was dropped south of the Mason Dixon. 

 

image.thumb.png.d13dd1f31d2fb0f35b0a425f872a0b62.png

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I do not think it is   Its 35 on my side of the mountain and plain rain and the Wunderground map shows just a station or two at or below freezing as of now and rain has already passed through all these locations.  So this morning, if I were driving, I would treat it like one of those "bridge freezes before roads" situations if on a small side road but I still cannot see any interstates freezing with all the traffic.  FWIW, the WWA was dropped south of the Mason Dixon. 

 

image.thumb.png.d13dd1f31d2fb0f35b0a425f872a0b62.png

 

Thank you very much! What you told me is what I told her. Appreciate your thoughts...

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Thank you very much! What you told me is what I told her. Appreciate your thoughts...

Hope and prayers for her trip.  Still a bit stressful with just regular wet roads. 

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks and yes...she's got 500 miles to Boone, NC. 

There is also traffic cams of course....let you see the rate of traffic down 81.   Here is one from Carlisle and Chambersburg. 

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=40.18684,-77.211774

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=39.963996,-77.578003

 

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I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

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The lack of moisture early led to no ice issues down this way. It’s up to 37 now. 

Yeah, heading to Steelers game and despite cold temps near Carlisle, no icing issues on main roads. Now approaching somerset and above freezing already.

 

 

.

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10 minutes ago, daxx said:

I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

I agree though the EC quick withdrawal of moisture bothers me.  I still think Eastern LSV has the best chance being the closest to the departing surface low. 

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I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

NAM sucking us back in


.

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


NAM sucking us back in


.

A couple days ago the NAM was showing a general 2-4" snowfall in the LSV so going to mention that it case it comes full back.  It is halfway back now.  Surprised this is the final output as the simulated radar maps look more impressive. 

 

image.thumb.png.3032035f8d39ce3ad3f105921d7b445f.png

 

 

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26 minutes ago, daxx said:

I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

Might not be a lot of accumulation but it could be a fun little dynamic event for a while.

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