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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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20 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm starting to get excited for tomorrow.   Euro looked pretty damn good.  It has snow falling almost all day tomorrow.  

Yes sir, it sure does. The Euro is the best model run yet for the LSV & most of CTP. Solid Advisory level event if this verified.

 

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Tomorrow probably will be an extreme gradient over Lancaster county, 6” to the East and virtually nothing for the western border. Happens very often in these setups.

Which model is showing this?

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think it was something they probably should have been warning about a few days but everyone's focus was on today when today was never really a threat with the warm weather preceding it. An inch or two of snow and no one will say much but a plow-able snow will bring about complaints. 

I'm not going to lie a couple days ago I thought our only hope was the waa precip.   The way it looks now I was wrong.  Then again the models could be baiting us in only to rip our hearts out tomorrow. Lol

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One thing I am going to point out...IF (stated in all Cap's with all the usual disclosures of what IF means) Lanco or really anyone in the LSV gets 4-6" of snow tomorrow and the rates are street stick worthy the NWS is going to be dished out some disdain.  The Zone's say rain/snow showers ending by 1PM with a high of 41.  Tomorrow is still a fairly busy travel day. 

They must have read your post.
@NWSStateCollege
42m
#pawx Sleet and freezing rain are moving to the east this afternoon. However, the precipitation may stall before it exits the northeastern mountains and Poconos. It should then turn to snow, and accumulate through the night. pic.twitter.com/53SXOm2ow3

 

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm not going to lie a couple days ago I thought our only hope was the waa precip.   The way it looks now I was wrong.  Then again the models could be baiting us in only to rip our hearts out tomorrow. Lol

I guess since I am more focused on snow I was looking at the second half.  Those 500MB maps the last few days have screamed for attention though I still worry about it being too warm. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I guess since I am more focused on snow I was looking at the second half.  Those 500MB maps the last few days have screamed for attention though I still worry about it being too warm. 

For sure, just been bitten too many times with this setup.  I and we still might be. I will be happy just to see some snow in December.  Our December's have really sucked in recent years.

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Just now, daxx said:

For sure, just been bitten too many times with this setup.  I and we still might be. I will be happy just to see some snow in December.  Our December's have really sucked in recent years.

That is what is exciting about tomorrow. I have zero expectations (and no one else in our immediate area should) so with that, it will  be fun to see if we have a few passing rain/snow showers, a few inches of snow, or something in between. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That is what is exciting about tomorrow. I have zero expectations (and no one else in our immediate area should) so with that, it will  be fun to see if we have a few passing rain/snow showers, a few inches of snow, or something in between. 

Yes...It will be fun just to watch it evolve on radar.  Folks northeast of us are all but a lock for a nice snowfall.

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

Poor Voyager.

 

27 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea...I forgot he was driving in that. Yikes!

Currently sitting in the parking lot at MetLife Stadium, but have to get back to Dickson City, Wilkes-Barre, and then Hazleton before going home. Then tomorrow I'm supposed to leave out at 7:15am for 10:15am at the Manhattan Cruise Terminal to pick up returning passengers.

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Back in Altoona from camp for a few hours. The area of precip I went through coming from Huntingdon County turned to snow and there's a light accumulation back in town. Ice was relatively minor today, mainly just on the ridgetops by the afternoon. Tomorrow looks interesting. 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 18Z Nam makes Lanco the screw zone.  LOL  Crazy models. 

image.png.4f46fe792bc755a1fe3fb705c9feb974.png

 

I think that most of us know not to take ANY map seriously whatsoever, especially in a situation like this. Pick your favorite dart, let 'er rip and see what happens...

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think that most of us know not to take ANY map seriously whatsoever, especially in a situation like this. Pick your favorite dart, let 'er rip and see what happens...

I know but modeling is still part of the fun with the board.  It should not have changed to bullseye so far west in 6 hours. 

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The differences between the State College & Mt. Holly forecast offices are striking. Western Chester & Berks counties are under Winter weather advisories for 3 to 5 inches of snow. Meanwhile, CTP only has 1 inch or less forecast for Lancaster & Lebanon counties. Mt. Holly has 4 inches for Reading & 2 for Coatesville.

CTP basically ignored the snow last week when many places in the LSV got their first inch or 2 of snow, so maybe things will work out better for us if they ignore tomorrow as well.

It’s just hard to believe that they ignored completely the 12z model suite that showed multiple models giving the LSV a couple of inches of snow. Maybe they will wait until after 0z runs tonight before they make a call for the LSV?

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I know but modeling is still part of the fun with the board.  It should not have changed to bullseye so far west in 6 hours. 

I agree with you...I guess I take pretty much any snow map with a grain of salt and nothing more than that. 

@daxx and I have had a few "discussions" on snow maps. :lol:

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree with you...I guess I take pretty much any snow map with a grain of salt and nothing more than that. 

@daxx and I have had a few "discussions" on snow maps. :lol:

Yes, but the general public & businesses need something better to go on. It’s not really a dependable forecast if they wait until the event is underway to make a call. I understand that’s it’s best to make a conservative forecast. However, if the 12z models are close to correct, & we get a few inches of snow tomorrow, then most people are going to be caught off guard.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, but the general public & businesses need something better to go on. It’s not really a dependable forecast if they wait until the event is underway to make a call. I understand that’s it’s best to make a conservative forecast. However, if the 12z models are close to correct, & we get a few inches of snow tomorrow, then most people are going to be caught off guard.

I'm sorry I wasn't clear...I'm not talking about CTP's maps, I'm talking about snow maps from models. I think @daxx actually kept track of how much snow he was to get based on one of the weather models last year (might have been the Euro) and it was over 300". 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sorry I wasn't clear...I'm not talking about CTP's maps, I'm talking about snow maps from models. I think @daxx actually kept track of how much snow he was to get based on one of hte weather models last year (might have been the Euro) and it was over 300". 

That sounds like the FV3.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sorry I wasn't clear...I'm not talking about CTP's maps, I'm talking about snow maps from models. I think @daxx actually kept track of how much snow he was to get based on one of the weather models last year (might have been the Euro) and it was over 300". 

Yea I despise snowfall maps. I know they look pretty and all but by the end of the season you will most like have far less than what was shown.  Unless you live on tug hill or any of the snow belts. Anyway 18z Euro is not what we saw at 12z.  We still see some snow but nothing like the 12z had. North and east still looks good. Need to start looking at short term models now.

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16 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea I despise snowfall maps. I know they look pretty and all but by the end of the season you will most like have far less than what was shown.  Unless you live on tug hill or any of the snow belts. Anyway 18z Euro is not what we saw at 12z.  We still see some snow but nothing like the 12z had. North and east still looks good. Need to start looking at short term models now.

Here are some short term models. The 18z NAM & 18z HRDPS. The LSV is still in the game.

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@CarlislePaWx will like the 0z nam's predict of 4-8" in central Cumberland County.  Temps still questionable but fun to see the lollipops of extreme snow with the upper low interaction. 

I wouldn’t mind the 2 to 3 inches that the 0z NAM shows for my yard either.

 

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