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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Man, that would be a perfect scenario for me.

My company is no where near the beach (Ocala) so it is just like going to Alabama or Mississippi.  LOL.  It is warm in the winter though!

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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My company is no where near the beach (Ocala) so it is just like going to Alabama or Mississippi.  LOL.  It is warm in the winter though!

That's all that matters to me... :sizzle:

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's been raining here nonstop for at least 3 hours...wasn't expecting THIS much in the way of precip today. Had a few parachutes mixed in earlier but it's been 99% rain. 

And I'm of course in Mount Pocono today, so it's snowing again here...

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Just now, daxx said:

The year of the coating!

I'm looking forward to getting the upgraded coating which includes roads.

I'm actually being sort of serious...I've always felt that snow seems...more legit when it accumulates on all surfaces.

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm looking forward to getting the upgraded coating which includes roads.

I'm actually being sort of serious...I've always felt that snow seems...more legit when it accumulates on all surfaces.

Absolutely...If we are going to keep getting coatings, let's get temperatures to drop a few more degrees. 

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Finally getting the ground whitened up this evening with some of the lake effect making it off the Laurel's. This could have been a 2-3" type of day here between the several hours of steady light snow this afternoon and a relatively robust NW flow LES regime but temps in the mid 30s made for nothing to show for this afternoon. Temp is still in fact 34ºF at this hour so the snow falling currently isn't affecting paved surfaces. Took the 4 mile drive up to the top of Wopsy Mountain not too long ago.. 29ºF up there with snow and blowing snow. There's easily 4-5" up there (a lot of that from Sun/Mon) plus most of the ice storm ice remaining encasing the trees almost completely in white. Insane how fast it changes in just 3-4 miles.

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and....now that I'm back (and digging out from emails/work), I'm looking for the next chance for snow (down here though).

After frontal passage/ rainer, it looks to set the table for some love from above next weekend.  Its at 10 days so it should be something to watch.  Will dig in more in the next few days to see if this is legit.  Lotsa catchin up to do.

Nut

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

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9 minutes ago, canderson said:

What's generating this wind that hit early this am, today? It didn't see anything that'd create it so blustery, but we're getting pretty frequent gusts in the upper 20s. 

namconus_z500_vort_us_2.png

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

What's generating this wind that hit early this am, today? It didn't see anything that'd create it so blustery, but we're getting pretty frequent gusts in the upper 20s. 

I'm sick of wind already. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

What's generating this wind that hit early this am, today? It didn't see anything that'd create it so blustery, but we're getting pretty frequent gusts in the upper 20s. 

Yup. Got blown all over the place coming down 81 today. Now sitting at 7th and Division Sts in the 'burg until 4:00pm...

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@pasnownut Nice pictures...I'm sure it's not easy leaving nice snow cover and coming home to...well, nothing. 

One of the biggest gut punches for me was many years ago on one of my frequent trips to and from Florida...I was driving home and started hitting snow cover in South Carolina which only got deeper and deeper as I came up through the Tar Heel state and into southern VA. By that point it was well over 1'. Alas, by the time I hit DC metro it was down to a few inches and by the time I hit the Mason/Dixon...nada. That was a tough one to swallow. 

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

and....now that I'm back (and digging out from emails/work), I'm looking for the next chance for snow (down here though).

After frontal passage/ rainer, it looks to set the table for some love from above next weekend.  Its at 10 days so it should be something to watch.  Will dig in more in the next few days to see if this is legit.  Lotsa catchin up to do.

Nut

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

WXRisk (Dave) is calling for it in this time period so lock it in LOL. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@pasnownut Nice pictures...I'm sure it's not easy leaving nice snow cover and coming home to...well, nothing. 

One of the biggest gut punches for me was many years ago on one of my frequent trips to and from Florida...I was driving home and started hitting snow cover in South Carolina which only got deeper and deeper as I came up through the Tar Heel state and into southern VA. By that point it was well over 1'. Alas, by the time I hit DC metro it was down to a few inches and by the time I hit the Mason/Dixon...nada. That was a tough one to swallow. 

Yeah, we can get screwed more than one way round here.  That's for sure.  Over the last few seasons, there's been more than enough southern fun for me to be jealous of those areas.  Here's hoping we are in the thick of it this season.  

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11 minutes ago, paweather said:

WXRisk (Dave) is calling for it in this time period so lock it in LOL. 

Yeah, but if you look at the 12z, its a cutter.  I really only posted for fun as an "I'm baaaack" kinda thing cause some of you may know i like snow.

Gotta look deeper to see where the base state is headed to see what fits storm/pattern wise.  

All said, still nice to see blues replacing greens on precip panels :).  

edit - Just looked at the ENS run at same time and its nowhere close to the OP....but its better, so I'll hug it for now :).

 

 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, but if you look at the 12z, its a cutter.  I really only posted for fun as an "I'm baaaack" kinda thing cause some of you may know i like snow.

Gotta look deeper to see where the base state is headed to see what fits storm/pattern wise.  

All said, still nice to see blues replacing greens :).

 

There seems to be a lot that can go wrong next weekend, and a cutter is probably more likely than not. Having said that, a cold air mass with a well timed short wave attacking from the SW can certainly provide us with some front-end love. And, we have like 9-10 days to improve our possibilities. I'm not even going to consider anything to the contrary. ;)

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47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There seems to be a lot that can go wrong next weekend, and a cutter is probably more likely than not. Having said that, a cold air mass with a well timed short wave attacking from the SW can certainly provide us with some front-end love. And, we have like 9-10 days to improve our possibilities. I'm not even going to consider anything to the contrary. ;)

You know you're dreaming of a dusting :lmao:

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