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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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Looks like we'll be waking up to white on Wednesday morning.  As shown there's almost enough for winter storm warning amounts.  I love events that go from rain to snow to accumulations. If it has to start out warm, then temps fall through the 30's and the changeover occurs.

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11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Looks like we'll be waking up to white on Wednesday morning.  As shown there's almost enough for winter storm warning amounts.  I love events that go from rain to snow to accumulations. If it has to start out warm, then temps fall through the 30's and the changeover occurs.

with NAM/GFS and Euro all coming around to the idea, I think we might have a legit threat here.  Never a fan of changover deals here in the LSV, but with such a consensus, it's not impossible. I wish best accums were still south of the MD line for me to feel comfy.  Looks like a Chambersburg to Allentown special IMO.  Maybe a slushy inch or 2 down here if were lucky....but hey, even I get lucky once in a while....

 

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46 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

with NAM/GFS and Euro all coming around to the idea, I think we might have a legit threat here.  Never a fan of changover deals here in the LSV, but with such a consensus, it's not impossible. I wish best accums were still south of the MD line for me to feel comfy.  Looks like a Chambersburg to Allentown special IMO.  Maybe a slushy inch or 2 down here if were lucky....but hey, even I get lucky once in a while....

 

I think that the LSV is in a good spot for this event. Our snow totals will depend on the track & timing of the follow up wave. Most models for the last few days have consistently kept us in the game.

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Its kinda like an App runner, interesting.

It’s a follow up wave on a cold front.

i think most of us in the LSV will like tonight’s 0z GFS. The Kuchera ratio map is even better.

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Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning:

Boundary layer temps slip to critical changeover levels for wet snow beginning in the early evening Tuesday across the Central Mtns and Mid Susq Valley, then across our SE zones around 03-05Z Wednesday. A second, post-frontal period of rain Tuesday afternoon/evening will likely change to a several to 6-8 hour period of light to moderate wet snow with 1-3 inches of accumulation looking increasingly likely SE of a KAOO to KSEG and KMPO line with the highest amounts occurring across the ridges. Could see a few higher amounts on the ridges. Depending on the temperature and snowfall rates, some travel impacts are possible for the morning commute to work and school Wednesday.

 

A374834C-1A5E-4C9C-B216-57A5CCA5137D.png

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I've been following/tracking this weekend and haven't said much mainly because these setups do not enthuse me...we don't usually do well down this way with this type of situation. Can we get accumulating snow? Absolutely. Experience over many years tells me to be leery. However, I'm speaking specifically for MY location...I'd feel much better about snow chances closer to the I-81 corridor. 

I hate cold chasing precip. 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS still looks good for our snow opportunity on Wednesday morning.

 

F4C5C8F8-CEA8-47AA-AD03-9996EFD19206.png

Saw the 6z earlier at home, and yeah, thats what I was hoping for, a little south tick, as we all know how things "adjust" come go time.  Hey, were inside 48 so its likely somethings happening, just need to see who gets lucky and who's watching.  As I stated last evening, we typically struggle to get to cold enough down east of the blue ridge, but if rates get decent, we could get slush bombs for a while.  

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Saw the 6z earlier at home, and yeah, thats what I was hoping for, a little south tick, as we all know how things "adjust" come go time.  Hey, were inside 48 so its likely somethings happening, just need to see who gets lucky and who's watching.  As I stated last evening, we typically struggle to get to cold enough down east of the blue ridge, but if rates get decent, we could get slush bombs for a while.  

HBG tends to feast or famine - either barely anything or the cold arrives and we get hit harder than expected. Always a really tough call for mets, thankfully it looks like the timing of this is mostly overnight so you'll know what's happening by the time of the morning commute. 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been following/tracking this weekend and haven't said much mainly because these setups do not enthuse me...we don't usually do well down this way with this type of situation. Can we get accumulating snow? Absolutely. Experience over many years tells me to be leery. However, I'm speaking specifically for MY location...I'd feel much better about snow chances closer to the I-81 corridor. 

I hate cold chasing precip. 

Very true. We have seen this fail many times around here.  There is times we do luck out but I'm not counting on it.  Im sure there are some on here that would be happy with another coating. I'm hoping for at least an inch.  

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10 minutes ago, daxx said:

What a wet week ahead. Another big soaker Friday night and Saturday morning.  Maybe a couple inches to several inches of rain this week. December rain sucks!

Worst part of it is we're going from cold and wet to warmer and wet...not the progression we want right now. Long way to go though...

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The 12z euro looks a little interesting next Tuesday. Has snow moving inTuesday morning with a change to a mix in the lsv.  North and west stays snow.  Not a huge storm but maybe several inches for some.  Long way out. It will likely change a dozen times until then.  

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0z models minus Euro is a nonevent for anyone NW of Harrisburg, maybe an inch or so there (so another rooftop we only) running NE up to the Lehigh Vallet, and Central to NE MD and extreme SE PA get the goods. A Maryland special. 

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10 hours ago, daxx said:

The 12z euro looks a little interesting next Tuesday. Has snow moving inTuesday morning with a change to a mix in the lsv.  North and west stays snow.  Not a huge storm but maybe several inches for some.  Long way out. It will likely change a dozen times until then.  

The 0z GFS looks good as well for Next Tuesday into Wednesday with a storm tracking to our southeast that brings some mixed precip that changes to potentially good amount of snow as depicted this run.

We are Still a week out, but’s it’s nice to see some early agreement between the Euro & GFS on the potential for next week.

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00z Euro for next Tuesday has a significant snowfall for most us on this forum.   We see mixing in lsv but still a decent snowfall.  Surface temps stay below freezing for the entire event. Still have seven days to go either way. 

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29 minutes ago, daxx said:

00z Euro for next Tuesday has a significant snowfall for most us on this forum.   We see mixing in lsv but still a decent snowfall.  Surface temps stay below freezing for the entire event. Still have seven days to go either way. 

Yes, for next Tuesday, the 0z Euro has a winter storm with significant snow for all of CTP. Long way to go, but the 0z runs tonight say that we will be very busy in here this week tracking this potential !

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Most of the globals have generally showed this kicker system early next week behind the weekend storm.

Speaking of the weekend storm, some of the central counties may see initial mixing.. if it times a bit faster (say more on Friday). Mainly this is probably going to be another wasted opportunity. Cutters like the current storm are one thing, but a Gulf Low taking a just inside the coastline track but not having the available cold air in mid-Dec is a real bummer. Strong high over New England midweek quickly retreats in the progressive pattern ahead of that system, and the lack of western ridge and a pretty positive NAO (and AO) don't do any favors either. The result being a mostly wet coastal. 

My obvious concern for the following system potentially in the D7 or so range is for a trend toward another cutter. The positive NAO is forecast to neutralize getting toward that timeframe and we have a bit of a better look up top overall (Canada/northern latitudes), so we'll see if that remains more workable. A very active looking pattern the next 10 days either way. I think we still have a good chance of landing something in the region before the holiday.

With regards to the potential changeover tomorrow night into Wed, I'm not particularly enthused about it. I think you might need to be in the Laurel's or E and SE of MDT for the best chance of seeing any kind of actual accumulation, and even then I think the best our subforum might see is an inch or so. Most models not named the GFS seem to give the I-95 corridor more of the focus for something that could be of the advisory variety. Been starting to watch the HRRR on the major z times (0,6,12,18) that extends out to 36hr. It does bring another wave of precip up through PA later this morning, but the cold air isn't in yet. 

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Being a pro driver, one of the things I hate about winter is salt spray on the roads. Nothing worse than a 1-2 inch minor event that brings every Penndot truck out. It's needed and welcomed as I'd rather drive on a wet road vs an icy one, but the dirty salt spray and having to hit the washers every 5 minutes gets annoying when you spend 6+ hours behind the wheel each day...

That being said, I'd gladly take a pass on the post front slop tomorrow and hope for a warning event for next week.

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CTP posted this for the LSV for tonight into early tomorrow.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 306 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 PAZ036-057>059-063>066-110815- Franklin-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 306 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .

DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Rain will turn to snow after midnight. Accumulations of up to 2 inches are possible by sunrise Wednesday. The snow will stick mainly on the grass.

 

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Here is more from CTP this morning:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Temps continue to fall all night. The initial 40s over the Lower Susq will take much if not all night to dip near freezing. A wave rolling up the old front and strong jet circulation/forcing will touch off a band of perhaps heavy snow over the SE during the second half of the night. Many places in the major metro areas of the SE (Harrisburg, Lancaster and York) may not even get below freezing by sunrise Wed. The outlying areas, esp in the higher elevations nearby will get cold enough for snow to accumulate everywhere. The snow will have trouble sticking at first, and may only make the roads wet. But, the intensity of the snow could be enough to make it stick to the roads. Accumulations will be generally an inch with 2 inches possible on the high ground. The 2" amounts do not look widespread, so we will not issue an advy at this point. But, the dayshift will have plenty of time to get the word out if it looks like more snow will stick. Overall, we have held the snow amounts as is for this package. The snow should be ending at sunrise in Lancaster, and may be over in Harrisburg and York an hour or two before sunrise. Thus, the morning commute will be largely snow- free, but may catch the early birds.

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6 hours ago, daxx said:

00z Euro for next Tuesday has a significant snowfall for most us on this forum.   We see mixing in lsv but still a decent snowfall.  Surface temps stay below freezing for the entire event. Still have seven days to go either way. 

As you and @MAG5035 have pointed out, the pattern is at the very least looking less hostile than it has recently. We're going to need some luck with timing of various features but we can see how things could come together to bring us some fun. At a 7 day lead that's all we're looking for. 

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On 12/9/2019 at 7:34 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been following/tracking this weekend and haven't said much mainly because these setups do not enthuse me...we don't usually do well down this way with this type of situation. Can we get accumulating snow? Absolutely. Experience over many years tells me to be leery. However, I'm speaking specifically for MY location...I'd feel much better about snow chances closer to the I-81 corridor. 

I hate cold chasing precip. 

It certainly looks like I could be wrong with my thought process yesterday. A lot of guidance is suddenly painting advisory criteria snows well south and east of me...I didn't see that coming. 

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Never had a good feeling about tonight and still don't.  I think some late night mood snows that whiten the ground here and there are in the offing, but not much more than that.  Post frontal has to be timed right and while column cools, we still have warm ground to overcome, and with light qpf, its going to be hard to get much out of it.  I'm happy to be talking about it all the same.  2" pop in CASHTOWN is my bet and i'm stickin with it ;).  (thats more of a joke btw).

I said it in the MA forum yesterday that while there is no strong/overwhelming signal, there is enough in the neutral camp to not write of next week, but timing is even more critical.  Looks like overnights timed next week favorably.  Another one to track....i'm game.  No shutout pattern is and has been my bar for many years, as I'm a realist.  LIke mag said, NAO headed to neutral is workable if timed right.  IMO we need the ridging out west to to stay neutral or +.  Otherwise, we get a trough in the SW and without NAO/AO help....that never bodes well round here.  

 

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