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pasnownut

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, but if you look at the 12z, its a cutter.  I really only posted for fun as an "I'm baaaack" kinda thing cause some of you may know i like snow.

Gotta look deeper to see where the base state is headed to see what fits storm/pattern wise.  

All said, still nice to see blues replacing greens on precip panels :).  

edit - Just looked at the ENS run at same time and its nowhere close to the OP....but its better, so I'll hug it for now :).

 

 

yeah, I know you did. I was really just joking about it. I'll also HUG anything that shows SNOW that is a for sure! Glad to see you back.

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30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That, and we're all resting up for our 100" winter. :sled:

There is a half truth to that statement.  Just because we got snow (well some/most) earlier this week, and most are on the proverbial snow board....it really is quite early to be knee deep in tracking, as climo says close be not quite yet. 

I will say it has been rather wintry up in the northern tier, as they've had multiple snow events, but southern tier is still a late fall feel.  Looking at the nooners, says we should continue to progress towards show time round here. I'm happy to see normalish with no anomalous warm/cold.  Good by me... for now....

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That, and we're all resting up for our 100" winter. :sled:

Closest I've ever come to a 100" winter was this one. Another one of these would make most in this sub-forum quite happy...

 

snowfall02_03.gif

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23 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

Closest I've ever come to a 100" winter was this one. Another one of these would make most in this sub-forum quite happy...

 

snowfall02_03.gif

I had 44" that winter...28" of which came from one storm. Plenty of worse outcomes here, above average for sure,  but at least here I've done far better. 09-10 I had about 70".

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2 hours ago, Voyager said:

I can always tell when the models aren't showing anything good. The forum goes silent...

The 12Z Euro suggests you will be getting your favored Florida weather, in PA, next weekend.  

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 12Z Euro suggests you will be getting your favored Florida weather, in PA, next weekend.  

But back to reality on Monday...lol

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I think the biggest issue the next 6-10 days is a bit of a progressive pattern and not much western ridging to be had.. keeping us vulnerable to cutters despite what looks to be a pretty decent cold shot behind the storm progged for early next week. Models are quite insistent on something fairly significant in that D8 realm. The problem is it appears the cold air is pretty well displaced from the eastern seaboard even in the 12z GFS case of having a coastal low run right up the coastline (no high in place either). There's a lot of time for that to evolve but that's where we're at with that currently.

NAO realm has shifted to postive as well, after the downstream blocking was a big factor in us very nearly being more directly in what was a blockbuster snowstorm not all that far away from our subforum at the beginning of the week. Such is how it goes a lot of times this early. At the moment, I don't see anything particularly detrimental pattern wise in the longer range to say we won't have chances...but there are some limitations to consider.

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The follow up wave on the cold front on Tuesday night into Wednesday is gaining momentum.

The 18z EPS continued to juice up the wave. 

Hopefully we can score a few inches of snow if this secondary wave times up well with the fresh cold air.

76565AE4-B305-409F-95D9-EA1528B2EFE9.png

4D2FBB23-7981-4E24-B576-EBB47FEB16B1.png

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I remember looking at the Canadian in late August and it showed us getting 3-4” snow. 

That model is wack. 

I cannot honestly recall a single time EVER (I'm sure that it has) that the Canadian model verified. For as much abuse that the NAM gets on these boards I'll take that model to the bank compared to the Canadian. 

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26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I cannot honestly recall a single time EVER (I'm sure that it has) that the Canadian model verified. For as much abuse that the NAM gets on these boards I'll take that model to the bank compared to the Canadian. 

I will chime in my agreement to this thought.  The Canadian is the Jim Carrey "so your saying there's a chance" model.  Its on par with the NOGAPS/NAV outside of a day or two range. 

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Current mid range models really suggest an unsettled, up and down week for the LSV...a soaking rain Monday, temps near 60 on Tuesday, Snow on Wed (at least falling), potential for 2-3" of rain over the rest of the week then up near 60 again Sat. 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Current mid range models really suggest an unsettled, up and down week for the LSV...a soaking rain Monday, temps near 60 on Tuesday, Snow on Wed (at least falling), potential for 2-3" of rain over the rest of the week then up near 60 again Sat. 

& then a great pattern setting up with cold & snow chances for the week before Christmas!

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

& then a great pattern setting up with cold & snow chances for the week before Christmas!

Let's hope so.  I will be tired of hearing how the changes between warm and cold are making everyone sick.  Time to just be cold.  

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10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

& then a great pattern setting up with cold & snow chances for the week before Christmas!

was thinking the same thing, as yeah this week is a rollercoaster w/ temp/precip/mood swings :)., then next week looks to be another step in the right direction.  Still doesnt look to lock in, but flow thickness's are getting right that as long as we keep thrown precip this way, were gonna hit on some of them.  Typical for our region...especially at this time of year.  Beats the blazes outta warm n dry....

 

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41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

NAM’d indeed !

 

396D8631-A2A0-40EF-926A-D6E72C6D598B.png

342788AC-B11E-454A-B629-778AA980B9CE.png

divide by 2 and I'm betting most would be happy.  I am.  Lets see if you can go 2 for 2 bud.  

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0 divided by 2 is....zero! I'm back lol. Happy Holiday season to all of you, had a job change and a move(not far South Williamsport to Montgomery, PA and wasn't really keeping up with weather all that much and Canderson and itsrainingtime will send pms on stuff I previously tried to get you if info is same I'll be able to do so now. Hope you guys are all doing well and you cash in Wednesday!

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fwiw, GFS is a tick colder thru 60  should help, and is only a couple ticks away from a nice little event to make it feel festive around here.

 

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12z GFS colder surface reflected in snowfall distribution as it also ticked SE.  

But if its still the GFS we know and love....its right where CTP wants it :).

Going to get my tree today.  Nice way to start the day.  Have a good one gang.

 

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