Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[daxx]

59 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm going to go with 1". Sounds like it might have been a bit more given what @anotherman and a few others around me measured. With 1", I'm now at 3.3" for the season. 

Which makes sense as you are the local snow magnet! 

You and I are really close in totals so far. I would not call 0.1”more than you a snow magnet. Lol!

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, daxx said:

You and I are really close in totals so far. I would not call 0.1”more than you a snow magnet. Lol!

I agree, but my point was you typically have more snow seasonally than I do. Going into last night's "event" I was running a little ahead of you for the season. That's been fixed now.  

[Blizzard of 93]

10 hours ago, canderson said:

Did it even snow at MDT? No signs of anything if so. 

MDT recorded a Trace for this event.

I happen to work less than 1 mile from MDT & the car tops in my lot still had a light coating of snow on them as of 8 am. I thought they might record a couple of tenths of snow, but clearly they just mailed in a T for the event.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded a Trace for this event.

I happen to work less than 1 mile from MDT & the car tops in my lot still had a light coating of snow on them as of 8 am. I thought they might record a couple of tenths of snow, but clearly they just mailed in a T for the event.

I was outside at 7:05 and snow wasn’t on any car in downtown. It was quite dry, I think we missed precip. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I was outside at 7:05 and snow wasn’t on any car in downtown. It was quite dry, I think we missed precip. 

Yes, same thing at my house in Marysville. I saw a few flakes overnight, but nothing that accumulated anywhere.

In Middletown, right across the street from MDT, the car tops all had a light coating of snow as of 8. It went from nothing to a very light dusting on some surfaces as soon as I got off of the highway in Highspire.

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I was outside at 7:05 and snow wasn’t on any car in downtown. It was quite dry, I think we missed precip. 

 

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, same thing at my house in Marysville. I saw a few flakes overnight, but nothing that accumulated anywhere.

In Middletown, right across the street from MDT, the car tops all had a light coating of snow as of 8. It went from nothing to a very light dusting on some surfaces as soon as I got off of the highway in Highspire.

I believe CTP posted a snow map on Twitter that showed that the accumulating snow stopped right at MDT.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I believe CTP posted a snow map on Twitter that showed that the accumulating snow stopped right at MDT.

That makes sense, the line certainly wasn’t far from MDT as I drove to work this morning. Then I went to Manheim this afternoon for work, & there was still over an inch on some shaded surfaces.

[Blizzard of 93]

Now, it’s on to our next winter storm threat on Monday night & Tuesday. The Euro & Canadian agree on the storm tracking toward the Ohio Valley & then transferring just under our region, bringing a snow to mix scenario. The GFS is on its own with cutting the storm well to our west bringing mostly rain.  

I would be happy with a solid 3 to 6 inch thump of snow & then a changeover to a mix. I have had enough of tracking car toppers & light coatings. The appetizers have been nice for some of us, but now I’m ready to track a legit solid region wide event to begin our main course!

[MAG5035]

Some surprise snow flying around this evening. And it's 28ºF so it's even sticking to the streets too for a change (dusting).

[Wmsptwx]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Now, it’s on to our next winter storm threat on Monday night & Tuesday. The Euro & Canadian agree on the storm tracking toward the Ohio Valley & then transferring just under our region, bringing a snow to mix scenario. The GFS is on its own with cutting the storm well to our west bringing mostly rain.  

I would be happy with a solid 3 to 6 inch thump of snow & then a changeover to a mix. I have had enough of tracking car toppers & light coatings. The appetizers have been nice for some of us, but now I’m ready to track a legit solid region wide event to begin our main course!

Is this looking like swfe or Miller B type deal?

[MAG5035]

25 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Is this looking like swfe or Miller B type deal?

Depends on the model, the Canadian was showing a Miller B type solution on it's 12z run today. The latest 0z run has that particular model tracking somewhat northwest of 12z, running the primary surface low right up the Ohio River. Some semblance of a eventual transfer but the solution is mixy/rainy in PA after a period of accumulating snow for most of our region. 

Models are generally similar with storm evolution, running a decent wave originating in the Lower Mississippi Valley tracking into the Ohio Valley on the approach to our region. So yea, I guess it does look to be more of a straight up SWFE over a miller B scenario. I'm not seeing much high pressure to the north being progged so in turn I'm not seeing this potential wave getting heavily forced to transfer to the coast. For the most part the biggest difference in the models is track right now. The GFS (surprisingly) continues to be on the NW envelope of guidance, running the low into the Lower Lakes, while the new Canadian tracks as mentioned up the Ohio River to SW PA and then starts an ambiguous looking transfer to the coast. Today's 12z Euro has the same evolution but is notably SE with the low track, running it out of the Lower MS Valley towards VA and the DelMarVA coast. The Canadian shifted north tonight so we'll see what the Euro does later. 

Even if the NW GFS track were to verify, the setup in place should be adequate enough for some wintry issues in our region on the front end at least. It's not the greatest look ever, obviously I would like to see a stronger high in place to the north. Even the 12z Euro's favorable track with not much high pressure to the north would probably introduce p-type issues to the Lower Sus Valley. Issues aside, this thing has a good chance at being our first region-wide frozen event (even if it ends up as rain at the end). 

[Wmsptwx]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Depends on the model, the Canadian was showing a Miller B type solution on it's 12z run today. The latest 0z run has that particular model tracking somewhat northwest of 12z, running the primary surface low right up the Ohio River. Some semblance of a eventual transfer but the solution is mixy/rainy in PA after a period of accumulating snow for most of our region. 

Models are generally similar with storm evolution, running a decent wave originating in the Lower Mississippi Valley tracking into the Ohio Valley on the approach to our region. So yea, I guess it does look to be more of a straight up SWFE over a miller B scenario. I'm not seeing much high pressure to the north being progged so in turn I'm not seeing this potential wave getting heavily forced to transfer to the coast. For the most part the biggest difference in the models is track right now. The GFS (surprisingly) continues to be on the NW envelope of guidance, running the low into the Lower Lakes, while the new Canadian tracks as mentioned up the Ohio River to SW PA and then starts an ambiguous looking transfer to the coast. Today's 12z Euro has the same evolution but is notably SE with the low track, running it out of the Lower MS Valley towards VA and the DelMarVA coast. The Canadian shifted north tonight so we'll see what the Euro does later. 

Even if the NW GFS track were to verify, the setup in place should be adequate enough for some wintry issues in our region on the front end at least. It's not the greatest look ever, obviously I would like to see a stronger high in place to the north. Even the 12z Euro's favorable track with not much high pressure to the north would probably introduce p-type issues to the Lower Sus Valley. Issues aside, this thing has a good chance at being our first region-wide frozen event (even if it ends up as rain at the end). 

Thanks for post Mag...maybe solid region wide advisory type deal?

[pawatch]

19 degrees here this morning...rain heading our way Friday/Saturday. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Thanks for post Mag...maybe solid region wide advisory type deal?

Yes, according to the 0z Euro. Snow to ice for most of us.

 

 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, according to the 0z Euro. Snow to ice for most of us.

 

 

Seasons first Winter Storm Watch is in the queue waiting to be released Saturday. 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

19 degrees here this morning...rain heading our way Friday/Saturday. 

 

I really don't need rain Saturday morning. Anyway you can stop it, please?

I'm actually liking upcoming for Monday. 

[Wmsptwx]

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I really don't need rain Saturday morning. Anyway you can stop it, please?

I'm actually liking upcoming for Monday. 

Yuck, some Saturday....hoping we get less.

[sauss06]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Yuck, some Saturday....hoping we get less.

This month is crazy for me. Saturday is only day to cut down a tree, so yeah, a lil less rain would be awesome.

Tuesday morning may be a plowable event

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

This month is crazy for me. Saturday is only day to cut down a tree, so yeah, a lil less rain would be awesome.

Tuesday morning may be a plowable event

I'm liking early next week for wintry precip...

My personal rule of thumb is anytime a primary goes west I set my bar for 2". There have been storms over the years that have brought me more than that, but most times models depict higher amounts than what we end up with. Happened more than once last year...changeover (from all snow) consistently happens sooner than forecast. And 9 times out of 10, 2" is pretty much the max. 

I'm speaking for my area...Jon, you might be looking at a solid 3".   

[Atomixwx]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm speaking for my area...Jon, you might be looking at a solid 3".   

You're being generous. And that's way too much snow, too. 

[Itstrainingtime]

26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You're being generous. And that's way too much snow, too. 

Poor Jon...

It might be too much snow. We'll see...

[sauss06]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Poor Jon...

It might be too much snow. We'll see...

we will shoot for a heavy dusting 

[pasnownut]

@Atomixwx Way too early to speak with any finality about early next weeks outcome.  If you are solely going off the GFS then sure, but Euro/CMC and Ukie all show a more southerly track of the primary, as flow at 500 are showing less ridging east of the Miss.  If that system speeds up or stays close to weekend event, that will better the chance for more frozen.  IMO we really wont know till Saturday as there will be a couple subtle shift that could have a notable impact on outcome.  Its not far away from a decent event, even if we do taint. 

Stay tuned.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

@Atomixwx Way too early to speak with any finality about early next weeks outcome.  If you are solely going off the GFS then sure, but Euro/CMC and Ukie all show a more southerly track of the primary, as flow at 500 are showing less ridging east of the Miss.  If that system speeds up or stays close to weekend event, that will better the chance for more frozen.  IMO we really wont know till Saturday as there will be a couple subtle shift that could have a notable impact on outcome.  Its not far away from a decent event, even if we do taint. 

Stay tuned.

 

Lot of truth in your words. One thing about weather is there are no absolutes until it's actually happening. I've been burned a few too many times thinking something was definitely going to happen only to end up looking bad.

This is a very humbling hobby.

[canderson]

I've had a gut feeling all fall this winter will be a very poor one for us LSV folks so I'm not getting any hopes up at all. We had such a good year last year (no big, big storm after that first one but we were above climo) that we have to pay the piper. 

[Wmsptwx]

I'll take one warning event and call it a good winter, anything 6 or 7 up and I'm pleased.

[Flatheadsickness]

 Animal behavior patterns and weights this fall where conducive to  long and cold or long and snow packed .  Mycelium fruiting body varieties and distribution also conducive to same. Most importantly  Vespa crabro and vespula queens where talking loudly this fall if you where listening (Numerous and long running queen emergence)   . Not goning to waste to much time writing about anything here anymore. My ASD makes writing anything a real task for me  and most you guys have been complete nazi D- bags when I have, but yet you have nothing to offer other than what you read on fake google.

[daxx]

26 minutes ago, canderson said:

I've had a gut feeling all fall this winter will be a very poor one for us LSV folks so I'm not getting any hopes up at all. We had such a good year last year (no big, big storm after that first one but we were above climo) that we have to pay the piper. 

My thoughts are the exact opposite of this.  I believe we are headed for at least an average if not above average snowfall this Winter.   We still have three months to go. 

[Flatheadsickness]

Yes I was wrong about the sun it was and not not quit solor minimum yet

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, daxx said:

My thoughts are the exact opposite of this.  I believe we are headed for at least an average if not above average snowfall this Winter.   We still have three months to go. 

I hope you're right!

I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit. 

Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong.