pawatch Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Blizzard as warm as the temps will be aloft you have to wonder how much of that will be sleet. To me it looks like 2-3" of snow with a good amount of sleet mixed in. Let's see how things look tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I agree, this looks like a typical 2-4 inch snow to ice event, maybe ending as a little rain. This type of event is nice because the precip shield is already well established to our west & we already have cold enough air in place. We don’t need to rely on a wave on a front or an upper low to try to produce with this storm on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, this looks like a typical 2-4 inch snow to ice event, maybe ending as a little rain. This type of event is nice because the precip shield is already well established to our west & we already have cold enough air in place. We don’t need to rely on a wave on a front or an upper low to try to produce with this storm on Monday I don't think anyone close to us gets close to 4". I don't believe this setup will produce 2" down this way. Where you live...maybe. A big maybe. I do believe ice will be a significant problem for a whole lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 No one last November thought that MDT would get over 8 inches of snow with that storm. It was supposed to be 2-4 with a changeover. 6 hours of heavy snow produced the 8 inches before the changeover in the early evening. I certainly don’t think anyone has a chance of getting near 8 inches of snow on Monday. However, If the initial precip comes in a heavy shield, some areas could end up with closer to 4 inches with the storm on Monday. Each model run is trending colder. There is no deepening low heading for Detroit with this event that would overwhelm us with a warm air push aloft or at the surface. We need to watch the development of the front running precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No one last November thought that MDT would get over 8 inches of snow with that storm. It was supposed to be 2-4 with a changeover. 6 hours of heavy snow produced the 8 inches before the changeover in the early evening. I certainly don’t think anyone has a chance of getting near 8 inches of snow on Monday. However, If the initial precip comes in a heavy shield, some areas could end up with closer to 4 inches with the storm on Monday. Each model run is trending colder. There is no deepening low heading for Detroit with this event that would overwhelm us with a warm air push aloft or at the surface. We need to watch the development of the front running precip shield. You could very well be right! And I hope you are...I just don't see it that way. I agree that trends favor more frozen. I just believe we flip sooner than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 hours ago, pawatch said: Blizzard as warm as the temps will be aloft you have to wonder how much of that will be sleet. To me it looks like 2-3" of snow with a good amount of sleet mixed in. Let's see how things look tonight. I've got NO probem with that. Seeing the nooners adjust slightly further south still says that we are close to at least an appreciable front end period of frozen, and it we get 2 more ticks south, would likely be mostly frozen as thermal boundary would likely follow south. Looking further beyond, a week from today all eyes could be on a pre Christmas doozy, that could give a white christmas to some that rarely see it. Looking forward to seeing how the pattern shakes out for next week and beyond. Fun times ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You could very well be right! And I hope you are...I just don't see it that way. I agree that trends favor more frozen. I just believe we flip sooner than expected. I agree, by no means is this a major storm, but this is the first widespread region wide winter storm of the season for us. It all depends on the front running precip shield. If that is a solid shield with heavier bands embedded, then some of us could over perform. If it is weak & scattered, then we will underperform & flip to ice more quickly. I will be happy with a solid 2 inches of snow, but I will hold out for hope of closer to 4. In reality, as with most cases, the answer probably will end up in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: I've got NO probem with that. Seeing the nooners adjust slightly further south still says that we are close to at least an appreciable front end period of frozen, and it we get 2 more ticks south, would likely be mostly frozen as thermal boundary would likely follow south. Looking further beyond, a week from today all eyes could be on a pre Christmas doozy, that could give a white christmas to some that rarely see it. Looking forward to seeing how the pattern shakes out for next week and beyond. Fun times ahead. Yes sir, & I’m looking forward to tracking it all with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Trend is south...we just need that waa precip to bulk up some and we're in good shape for some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No one last November thought that MDT would get over 8 inches of snow with that storm. It was supposed to be 2-4 with a changeover. 6 hours of heavy snow produced the 8 inches before the changeover in the early evening. I certainly don’t think anyone has a chance of getting near 8 inches of snow on Monday. However, If the initial precip comes in a heavy shield, some areas could end up with closer to 4 inches with the storm on Monday. Each model run is trending colder. There is no deepening low heading for Detroit with this event that would overwhelm us with a warm air push aloft or at the surface. We need to watch the development of the front running precip shield. Bingo buddy boy.... E/W orientation pf WAA precip shield looks to limit Nward progression of thermal boundary. I do agree w/ Mr. Trainer guy that taint is also likely, even to some rain, but we are close to all frozen (as per GFS which has been the warm on in the group). IF the Euro stays south, I'm hedging bets that our first widespread wintery event happens on Monday. Upper air flow is conducive to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Trend is south...we just need that waa precip to bulk up some and we're in good shape for some frozen. One thing that is in our favor, is that WAA usually is under modeled, and we tend to overachieve with setups like this. I think thats what Blizzy is suggesting. You are sitting in a nice spot pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I just got that feeling we are in for a fun and exciting Winter this year. We are going to have our bad periods but I just don't see them being weeks on end. For Monday I could see a 1-3 or even a 2-4. One thing is for sure the models are getting a better handle on 2m temps being a tad cooler. I don't think the entire event will be frozen. It will rain. Next Thursday through Saturday morning look mighty cold. Nice shot of cold coming into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Does anyone know a time it is to start Monday. I know little far out to get fine details. But I have a flight from York taking off around 9ish then NYC to Cape May. Then heading back to york around 1ish. Any advice would be great trying to beat the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 35 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Bingo buddy boy.... E/W orientation pf WAA precip shield looks to limit Nward progression of thermal boundary. I do agree w/ Mr. Trainer guy that taint is also likely, even to some rain, but we are close to all frozen (as per GFS which has been the warm on in the group). IF the Euro stays south, I'm hedging bets that our first widespread wintery event happens on Monday. Upper air flow is conducive to it. Just to be perfectly clear...I think we're going to get an extended period of frozen. I also think it will be disruptive to the point that it will be a significant event. I'm specifically leery of how much pure white gold falls. Guys I hope I'm wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just to be perfectly clear...I think we're going to get an extended period of frozen. I also think it will be disruptive to the point that it will be a significant event. I'm specifically leery of how much pure white gold falls. Guys I hope I'm wrong... It is only Saturday, it is very possible by tomorrow morning all short term models bump north and we rain. I'm just basing off model trends today. We have seen this happen many times. Models pull us in then they slowly back off to just about nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 It is only Saturday, it is very possible by tomorrow morning all short term models bump north and we rain. I'm just basing off model trends today. We have seen this happen many times. Models pull us in then they slowly back off to just about nothing.Could go the other way too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro is kind of weak with waa. Some light snow to some freezing. I'm sure someone will post a snowfall map that looks good but they usually do when it shows surface temps near freezing. Euro/ Maytown combo! Uh oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Then again Euro might be too dry with the waa precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 That seems to be biggest issue, usually waa is nice precip thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, daxx said: It is only Saturday, it is very possible by tomorrow morning all short term models bump north and we rain. I'm just basing off model trends today. We have seen this happen many times. Models pull us in then they slowly back off to just about nothing. yeah thats a definite possibility with this deal. We are close either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 59 minutes ago, daxx said: Then again Euro might be too dry with the waa precip. this happens with WAA. I think as we close in, the models will come around...or we just see Meso's pick up on it closer to show time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: this happens with WAA. I think as we close in, the models will come around...or we just see Meso's pick up on it closer to show time Yeah nam has me more worried about qpf than temps.... oddly dry waa event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Yeah nam has me more worried about qpf than temps.... oddly dry waa event. NAM is good at drying up at this juncture. It’ll likely back tomorrow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 State College dropped any reference to freezing rain here and infact says snow showers to start then all rain...guess we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: State College dropped any reference to freezing rain here and infact says snow showers to start then all rain...guess we will see what happens. They updated this morning, but they are still down playing the ice potential. I’m fairly confident that they will have some type of Advisory hoisted later today for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: They updated this morning, but they are still down playing the ice potential. I’m fairly confident that they will have some type of Advisory hoisted later today for most of us. Yea it still says only rain or snow for both Williamsport and Harrisburg forecasts no mention of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Here’s what I see when I click on the Williamsport area on CTP’s map : Monday Night Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before midnight, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between midnight and 3am, then rain after 3am. Low around 31. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Pa is going to be windy today. Look at the warm air in central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 I might have been a little too generous yesterday with my snowfall estimates...I was sorta afraid of that... Nothing is settled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I might have been a little too generous yesterday with my snowfall estimates...I was sorta afraid of that... Nothing is settled yet. I'm going with 1-3 with some glaze for our area. Maybe 2-4 out close to bubblerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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