pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: It’s all about location with this one. For my area complete bust so far. One county west they are well with in range. I'v always found it intriguing, how micro climates still exist within general regions (ie peidmont). While in general Trainers mindset of being burnt more than not is true for most everyone in the forum, like you stated someone still cashes in while others largely sit on sidelines...thats my point. In fairness to Trainer, it was always a light qpf event for part 1, but if you look in the MA forum, many are on the snow board this morning (best forcing was slated a little south of, so its understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just south of us in parts Maryland they had 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'v always found it intriguing, how micro climates still exist within general regions (ie peidmont). While in general Trainers mindset of being burnt more than not is true for most everyone in the forum, like you stated someone still cashes in while others largely sit on sidelines...thats my point. In fairness to Trainer, it was always a light qpf event for part 1, but if you look in the MA forum, many are on the snow board this morning (best forcing was slated a little south of, so its understandable. Yea...closer to the actual warm front really helped. You could see the precip riding along it. As you stated best forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Perusing the radar it doesn't look like much of anything is going to happen for quite some time. I imagine when precip arrives it will be wet and not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Right at the 1 inch mark here with the first round, at least I got that out of the way finally (first 1"+ snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 boy i wish i was north of 80 tonight. Looks like a nice little event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 and to add to above, it was largely a rainer on GFS well into the weekend. If we can mute warmup a bit more, looks like a shot at white christmas for parts of I 80 and N. Here is the hot panel i'm concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well, @ItstrainingtimeSorry to say you busted for me. I've ended up with a dusting. Nothing on sidewalks, maybe at best 0.2" on cartops and the grass. Congrats bubbler and cashtown. I thought last night we were headed for 2" for real this time. Any white before January is a bonus for these parts. Like you I just keep my expectations low. We'll see what round 2 decides to do. Temp now 31.1 degrees with 28 degree dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Over the fall I removed a large tree from my front yard. I wanted to open a spot to get a second snow measurement during north winds as the front is more sheltered. There’s no wind with this storm, but I clearly see the difference 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: boy i wish i was north of 80 tonight. Looks like a nice little event for them. I was just looking at that full length 12z HRRR too. Looks like I'll be riding the mix line for awhile as per usual. I'm hoping to at least maintain sleet for awhile over freezing rain as well as seeing maybe a couple more hours of snow on the front end of the main precip. That main batch of precip looks like it will be moderate to heavy, so that may hold down the column enough where it's marginal to perhaps score some more snowfall in the counties between the turnpike and I-80. 6z NAM kind of hinted at that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and to add to above, it was largely a rainer on GFS well into the weekend. If we can mute warmup a bit more, looks like a shot at white christmas for parts of I 80 and N. Here is the hot panel i'm concerned about. Man, that sucks. On Christmas Eve too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I was just looking at that full length 12z HRRR too. Looks like I'll be riding the mix line for awhile as per usual. I'm hoping to at least maintain sleet for awhile over freezing rain as well as seeing maybe a couple more hours of snow on the front end of the main precip. That main batch of precip looks like it will be moderate to heavy, so that may hold down the column enough where it's marginal to perhaps score some more snowfall in the counties between the turnpike and I-80. 6z NAM kind of hinted at that too. unfortunaely dp's are up so not much help there. Yeah, we need good rates to score frozen down here. Heh...just looked at the nooner NAM's and tippy top of Lanco flirts w/ frozen for round 2 through the whole next round. If you look at snow panels (and understand the flaws within) - one can see the wet/frozen lines - and thats what i use them for in situ's like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Man, that sucks. On Christmas Eve too. member that time a couple years ago.................. skorts for everyone..... thank goodness we will have plenty of liquids for hydration.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 32 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well, @ItstrainingtimeSorry to say you busted for me. I've ended up with a dusting. Nothing on sidewalks, maybe at best 0.2" on cartops and the grass. Congrats bubbler and cashtown. I thought last night we were headed for 2" for real this time. Any white before January is a bonus for these parts. Like you I just keep my expectations low. We'll see what round 2 decides to do. Temp now 31.1 degrees with 28 degree dew point. I busted for a whole lot of us. On to the next one! (I don't expect any more snow down here from round #2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, anotherman said: Man, that sucks. On Christmas Eve too. Mowing greens and changing cups isn’t on my Christmas list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: unfortunaely dp's are up so not much help there. Yeah, we need good rates to score frozen down here. Heh...just looked at the nooner NAM's and tippy top of Lanco flirts w/ frozen for round 2 through the whole next round. If you look at snow panels (and understand the flaws within) - one can see the wet/white lines - and thats what i use them for in situ's like this. Yea obviously the TT snowmaps are quite flawed with mix scenarios, but the 12z NAM does continue to show the first few hours of the heavy precip temporarily cooling the column just a bit at the 850 and 925mb levels, and for places like State College and Harrisburg north and west that may be just enough for several hours of frozen before WAA aloft eventually does win out overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, pasnownut said: member that time a couple years ago.................. skorts for everyone..... thank goodness we will have plenty of liquids for hydration.... Was it 2013 it was 70 on Christmas Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Was it 2013 it was 70 on Christmas Eve? I've tried hard to forget, but thought it was 15 or 16. I do remember the temp though... 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I've tried hard to forget, but thought it was 15 or 16. I do remember the temp though... 76 2015. Had high dews to go with it. AC ran all night long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea obviously the TT snowmaps are quite flawed with mix scenarios, but the 12z NAM does continue to show the first few hours of the heavy precip temporarily cooling the column just a bit at the 850 and 925mb levels, and for places like State College and Harrisburg north and west that may be just enough for several hours of frozen before WAA aloft eventually does win out overnight. I edited my bolded part after you got to it, as i changed snow to frozen, as that is the delineation that i was meaning to highlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 WRF/NAM's look rather similar so it may be a little bit of snow/ice before we change over. 2001kx and Voyager look to be in the fun zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1.9” snow officially mix of pellets and freezing rain now 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 1.9” snow officially mix of pellets and freezing rain now 29 You're ahead of me by 1.899" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 light snowflakes falling...#mood snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Friend just outside Gettysburg said they had 2.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Overcast and 31 up here, hoping for an inch before changeover this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Friend just outside Gettysburg said they had 2.75". Pics or it didn’t happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Pics or it didn’t happen I wish they'd had sent some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I wish they'd had sent some! Cam shots from that area looked like they had a good burst of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 34.4/28.2 here now. Don't think ice will be a significant issue here but we might drop just enough at the onset of the heavier precip to glaze up some elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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