Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Zones have a little white stuff mentioned next week. Should be some opportunities for most of us to get on the board in the next several weeks. All we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Happy one year anniversary: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Happy one year anniversary: The Turkey Bone Snowstorm of 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Happy one year anniversary: 6.5" here. My typical 20 minute drive home took 2 hours and 45 minutes that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 That storm dropped 8.25" here and it was a horrible day trying to get home for so many. A normal 20 minute drive turned into 4 or 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, canderson said: That storm dropped 8.25" here and it was a horrible day trying to get home for so many. A normal 20 minute drive turned into 4 or 5 hours. Yes, my 25 minute drive turned into a 2 hour adventure back home. That storm turned out to be the most snow that we got in a single storm last season. The rest of the winter we had to nickel & dime our way to get to our 40 inch seasonal total in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Should be some opportunities for most of us to get on the board in the next several weeks. All we can ask for at this point. Yes sir ! The pattern looks ripe for some winter weather opportunities starting next week. The 18z Happy hour GFS delivered snow for next weekend! I would sign up for this & run ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 The way the pattern appears to be shaping up for the second half of the month is certainly favorable for a potential early season event(s). Considering the month we're talking about is still November, the progged establishment/stability of what is pretty much a winter-type pattern is notable. It's not a "one off" type thing where we briefly might line up things for a snow event and it's back to being 60ºF and above average in a few days. It's more of a seasonal temps at best (generally below average) with a fairly suppressed storm track that keeps the cold air close and provides realistic opportunities for early snows. Going off some of today's runs (12 and 18z), GFS and Euro differ some in alignment in that D6-10 timeframe. The GFS seems more amplified with the western ridge and overall high height anomalies in the high latitudes (specifically Canada), providing a bit of a colder look and more suppression to the storm track. The Euro is flatter with the western ridge but more amplified with a Greenland ridge in the NAO realm. The flatter western ridge would imply a more zonal pattern that's a bit warmer (but still workable). I do think the more highly amped western ridge the GFS had provides the better potential. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 The 12z Euro Control run today has a Thanksgiving coastal snow storm treat for us as we prepare for our turkey feast ! Just as @MAG5035 said earlier, The pattern looks good for the second half of November. We should have chances to track for winter weather beginning later this week & into Turkey Day week. Oh yeah, here is the Euro Control Thanksgiving storm just to warm up our appetite for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Might be a sneaky slick commute Monday morning for the LSV. Sleet looks like it might want to play around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Thanksgiving storm would sure make things interesting. That's a big smoking turkeys day for me. Snowfall for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 There are some light snow flurries right now in Marysville! I was not expecting anything today. Maybe we can see a little more light snow tomorrow night? The pattern looks to be very active later this week & Thanksgiving week. Hopefully we can time something just right & get our first legit snow event to track this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: There are some light snow flurries right now in Marysville! I was not expecting anything today. Maybe we can see a little more light snow tomorrow night? The pattern looks to be very active later this week & Thanksgiving week. Hopefully we can time something just right & get our first legit snow event to track this season! Ironically the wife and I were at Home Depot buying a snow blower as the flurries were dropping. I figured it was a sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, Anduril said: Ironically the wife and I were at Home Depot buying a snow blower as the flurries were dropping. I figured it was a sign That’s great! You & I will get accused of jinxing this winter! I also bought a snow blower a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Saturday bears some watching. Air mass is probably not cold enough for a big one but the track is pretty decent. If we can get that Miss. Valley low to minor out a bit earlier, allowing a coastal to form a little south and east of the GFS prog, it could be a wintry day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Saturday bears some watching. Air mass is probably not cold enough for a big one but the track is pretty decent. If we can get that Miss. Valley low to minor out a bit earlier, allowing a coastal to form a little south and east of the GFS prog, it could be a wintry day. Yes, I agree. It all depends on the track of the initial low & then how quickly the primary low transfers its energy to the coast. The models will probably waffle back & forth for another couple of days with the track. Hopefully we are in a good spot to get a little snow by Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 16 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I agree. It all depends on the track of the initial low & then how quickly the primary low transfers its energy to the coast. The models will probably waffle back & forth for another couple of days with the track. Hopefully we are in a good spot to get a little snow by Saturday night. I just peeked at 12Z and not good for anything close to snow anymore...trends have been further to the west and north with the track before any redevelopment. This may have been our last chance of any Pre Winter (Met Winter) area wide accumulating snows. Actually looks toasty next week possibly pushing 60 (did not check EC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I just peeked at 12Z and not good for anything close to snow anymore...trends have been further to the west and north with the track before any redevelopment. This may have been our last chance of any Pre Winter (Met Winter) area wide accumulating snows. Actually looks toasty next week possibly pushing 60 (did not check EC). Still rain for Saturday though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: Still rain for Saturday though? Yep. Some. A little sleet or Freezing rain in N Central PA but closest snow is up in the Lakes. Here is GFS 12Z total QPF through Sunday Am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. Some. A little sleet or Freezing rain in N Central PA but closest snow is up in the Lakes. Here is GFS 12Z total QPF through Sunday Am. good day to stay in with a beer and fire and watch PSU with an upset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 hours ago, sauss06 said: good day to stay in with a beer and fire and watch PSU with an upset Man, that would be awesome... Looks like an uneventful couple of weeks with near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures and a couple of chances of some rain. No wintry weather in the foreseeable future for the LSV at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Man, that would be awesome... Looks like an uneventful couple of weeks with near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures and a couple of chances of some rain. No wintry weather in the foreseeable future for the LSV at least. If one looks at todays nooner GEFS, flow at 500 seems to be rather zonal, but there are a few times where there's thickness's would be close to fun if we can time it right. Good is that no SER popping up and some blockiness showing up upstairs in the AO/NAO domains. Verbatim it looks to erode towards the end of the run, but for now, we should just focus on 14 and under until some stability shows up and one feels confident enough to dab a toe into the LR and where things go. Anthony Maisello things fun times for early Dec. and as I've followed him for some time, he's a guy that us weenies watch when he gets the sock off and dabs the toe in :). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 TGIF all. Well its a couple days later than my last post, and next week looks to have changed for the warmer for sure as the storm cuts way west and drags the cold front south with another cutter on its heels. Looks like minimal/no chance of white prior to turning the calendar. Once that happens, it looks like things get better for us as a pig ridge pops in the Yukon territories and a split flow seems to develop in the jet. Pattern through the end of month has similarities to much of what we saw last year, but if one believes Ens guidance, then our wait SHOULD be over as we start Dec. NAO/PNA/AO while less favorable to start the month, still appear to be favorable, and there is enough spread in the tellies to give pause to any slam dunk predictions. So for now....the wait continues. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 58 minutes ago, pasnownut said: TGIF all. Well its a couple days later than my last post, and next week looks to have changed for the warmer for sure as the storm cuts way west and drags the cold front south with another cutter on its heels. Looks like minimal/no chance of white prior to turning the calendar. Once that happens, it looks like things get better for us as a pig ridge pops in the Yukon territories and a split flow seems to develop in the jet. Pattern through the end of month has similarities to much of what we saw last year, but if one believes Ens guidance, then our wait SHOULD be over as we start Dec. NAO/PNA/AO while less favorable to start the month, still appear to be favorable, and there is enough spread in the tellies to give pause to any slam dunk predictions. So for now....the wait continues. Nut so, you're saying we're having a white Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 On 11/20/2019 at 3:23 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Man, that would be awesome... Looks like an uneventful couple of weeks with near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures and a couple of chances of some rain. No wintry weather in the foreseeable future for the LSV at least. 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: TGIF all. Well its a couple days later than my last post, and next week looks to have changed for the warmer for sure as the storm cuts way west and drags the cold front south with another cutter on its heels. Looks like minimal/no chance of white prior to turning the calendar. Once that happens, it looks like things get better for us as a pig ridge pops in the Yukon territories and a split flow seems to develop in the jet. Pattern through the end of month has similarities to much of what we saw last year, but if one believes Ens guidance, then our wait SHOULD be over as we start Dec. NAO/PNA/AO while less favorable to start the month, still appear to be favorable, and there is enough spread in the tellies to give pause to any slam dunk predictions. So for now....the wait continues. Nut Yep, that's what I've been thinking for some time now...we're going to need to be patient a while longer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 13 hours ago, pasnownut said: TGIF all. Well its a couple days later than my last post, and next week looks to have changed for the warmer for sure as the storm cuts way west and drags the cold front south with another cutter on its heels. Looks like minimal/no chance of white prior to turning the calendar. Once that happens, it looks like things get better for us as a pig ridge pops in the Yukon territories and a split flow seems to develop in the jet. Pattern through the end of month has similarities to much of what we saw last year, but if one believes Ens guidance, then our wait SHOULD be over as we start Dec. NAO/PNA/AO while less favorable to start the month, still appear to be favorable, and there is enough spread in the tellies to give pause to any slam dunk predictions. So for now....the wait continues. Nut I agree that the first week of December looks very active with plenty of cold air & winter storm chances. The 18z GFS gets our winter storm chances going at the end of next weekend. It would be nice to get on the snow board early in December. I think that we will have plenty to track as we enjoy our Turkey this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Good Saturday morning everyone ! We might be able to flip to a little snow tomorrow morning according to this morning’s run of the 12k & 3k NAM. JB had mentioned a few times this week that he thought that there was a chance of a flip to a little snow for places north of the MD line with this event. He thought there was a chance because of the storm track & there being just cold enough air to cause the changeover. Earlier this week, a few models showed us getting a little snow out of this event. Let’s see if any more models agree later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Weather World @WeatherWorldPSU A weather rarity this November in State College: This November (to date) is the 10th coldest on record. All other Novembers this cold or colder have had measurable snowfall by this point. But, just a trace this year. #ctpwx #pawx #psuwx #SnowlessInStateCollege 10:53 AM - 23 Nov 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 The chance of a changeover to snow tomorrow morning is increasing for even the LSV. The 0z NAMs & even the 18z Euro bring a flip to snow tomorrow morning. Even if it doesn’t accumulate much, it would be nice to see some snow in the air for a couple of hours. Here’s to the 12k NAM for the win ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Some winter action to report on from nearby (4 miles up the road). The Allegheny front has some fairly notable ice accums ongoing. Wopsy Rd@Skyline Dr above Altoona: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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