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George BM

October Discobs 2019

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9 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

The old Srefs which are now part of the new HREFs look juicy thru 48 . I think that some of the old arw , nmm sref members and now Hrrr, nam nest and  I believe the Gfs to a certain extent and some others are included in the bundle but I could be wrong.

       Sorry to be "that guy", but yeah, you're wrong.   B)        The SREF and HREF are independent systems.    The SREF is 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs, all at 16 km.     The HREF is simply aggregating existing high-resolution (~3 km) model runs (NAM nest, and the Hi-Res Windows NMMB, ARW, and ARW2) into means and probabilities.     The HRRR will be included in the HREF computations starting next summer.

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1 hour ago, George BM said:

0z run..... NAM'd. :P

Quite a crushing... 2"+ for many

00z 3km NAM is pretty good too... over an inch for many

Precip comes in hot and heavy around dawn Sunday

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Quite a crushing... 2"+ for many

00z 3km NAM is pretty good too... over an inch for many

Precip comes in hot and heavy around dawn Sunday

00z CMC was a move SE by about 75 miles for Sunday... around 0.5" QPF now for just south of EZF into S MD... DCA and BWI near 0.15" total

00z GFS also a SE move compared to 18z... 0.5" line barely into S MD... barely any precip (0.15") back into i95 corridor and the metros

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0z Euro run is much wetter for the I-95 corridor and points east than 12z. 0.5" for DC, 0.6" for Dover. Over an inch for SBY.

Still pretty dry NW of Baltimore. Only about a tenth for Westminster.

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I’m up in sykesville for a baseball game already and plenty of frost here. 

 

Low of 40 at home. Meh.

 

edit... down to 39

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Looking through all the latest guidance, seems a pretty good bet at least the southern two-thirds of the region weill see some decent rain tomorrow.

My forecast is for a half inch, and looks like an inch or more down towards the beaches.

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8 hours ago, high risk said:

       Sorry to be "that guy", but yeah, you're wrong.   B)        The SREF and HREF are independent systems.    The SREF is 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs, all at 16 km.     The HREF is simply aggregating existing high-resolution (~3 km) model runs (NAM nest, and the Hi-Res Windows NMMB, ARW, and ARW2) into means and probabilities.     The HRRR will be included in the HREF computations starting next summer.

I thought I might be lol. 16 k vs 3k ...yea that's a huge resolution difference. Thanks for replying. 

 

Here's the Noaa link to the HREF . Under "More information"- click members and that's where I saw a list with Hrrr included and also it appears some Gfs physics are incorporated in? No?. This also appears to be the 2nd version of this model just starting this past April 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=qpf_024h_mean&sector=ma&rd=20191018&rt=1200#

 

Screenshot_20191019-075233_Chrome_crop_353x555.jpg

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10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

1st frost of year, and a pretty heavy one at that. JUST stayed above freezing though, 32.7 degrees.

Pretty much the exact same obs here in the creek valley....

Tomatoes and peppers just kept producing pretty well this year....those day are over now.  On to winter!

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Looks like the Nams shifted towards the globals for tomorrow.  No big surprise.  All show zippo here which actually is fine . Been a while since I've taken the GN cruisin :D

 

Ninjd 

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18 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Just got 18z NAM'd like the good ole days. I can just picture us in 8 weeks hanging on to this small thread of hope.

Nams keep bouncing back and forth lol. My yard is back to 1 inch from 12z s zippo . HRRR 36 hr matches up with the 12z nam :whistle:fwiw 

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