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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The last time we had a coastal storm like this was October 27th 2018. While that was a slightly different setup, the wind gusts were forecasted to be similar to this week storms but under performed big time however moderate to major coastal flooding did occur for some areas.

 

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Next 8 days averaging 58degs., or maybe 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +3.4[64.0].         Should be near  +1.9[61.0] by the 16th.

59.1* here at 6am.

Both the EURO/GFS are under 0.5" through Sunday.

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15 hours ago, uncle W said:

reminds me of the early January 2018 storm only its rain this time...

..yeah..this would have/could have been a great "east end special" snowstorm..

signs of a blocky winter??

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Looking forward to the toasty weather past mid October, we should see widespread 70s and even 80s for some. 

I do think November turns much colder though, the last several years have had colder Novembers along with March. 

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13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

They keep doing the smiley emoji at you...

But so far you have been spot on. 

A few cool days. This week is masked by this storm...but it is 60 at 7am. Sat thru Wed all look AN.

Long story short, this cool stretch isnt that cool

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

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A strong and slow-moving offshore storm will likely bring a moderate rainfall to the New York City area. East of New York City, especially Suffolk County and also the eastern half of New England will pick up a heavy rainfall over the next several days.

While New York City will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" rain, 1"-3" is likely in such locations as Bridgeport, New Haven, and Islip. 2"-4" rain is likely in Boston, New London, Providence, and Westhampton. Parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket could see 3"-6" with some locally higher amounts.

Daily rainfall records for select locations for today are:

Bridgeport: 1.30", 1992
Islip: 1.97", 1977
New Haven: 1.58", 1977
New London: 0.83", 2016
Westhampton: 0.95", 1959 and 1995

Through 8 am, rainfall totals for today were:

Bridgeport: None
Islip: 0.01"
New Haven: 0.01"
New London: 0.12"
Westhampton: 0.15"

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13 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

I’m in Westchester… I woke up this morning and it was 59.5° out ...well above normal.

We will be in that uniform temperature environment with BN days and AN nights for the next few days. 

once the storm passes it looks like we’re normal to above normal quite quickly.

 

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17 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

 

7dTDeptNRCC.png

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18 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

Not seeing any 'below' average within 2 hours of the city. Data are data...

30dTDeptNRCC.png

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This October seems to be a continuation of the same general 2019 pattern. Above normal temperatures in the East with cooler temperatures over portions of the West. 
 

0313784C-B905-4407-BDCD-4B787D80FF56.png.bbfb31e3b62a5bd0cc7815bcd465603f.png

AC47D464-1F4F-4F71-BE2A-DA95F84F1E8B.png.739f2c90f21d5c3f591c57193c3840b9.png

 

 

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56 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

They keep doing the smiley emoji at you...

But so far you have been spot on. 

A few cool days. This week is masked by this storm...but it is 60 at 7am. Sat thru Wed all look AN.

Long story short, this cool stretch isnt that cool

It's very mild despite what people think. In years past we'd frequently see 30s to low 40s by now even near the city and we can't even drop below 50. 

And we're lucky to be just north enough to avoid the torrid heat the Mid-Atlantic has experienced for months.

The cold is out west and the east is mild, it's been that way for a few years now and I don't see that changing with a raging Pacific jet pattern. 

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41 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not seeing any 'below' average within 2 hours of the city. Data are data...

30dTDeptNRCC.png

In fairness, that map is heavily skewed to the one 90 degree day we had.

If you took it out, temperatures would be slightly below normal because of this weekend. But that would balance out to above normal again at the end of this week. So your point is valid

 

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28 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

In fairness, that map is heavily skewed to the one 90 degree day we had.

If you took it out, temperatures would be slightly below normal because of this weekend. But that would balance out to above normal again at the end of this week. So your point is valid

 

Yes I realized that, but that is why I posted the last 30 days map later. But still no below average within an hour’s drive of NYC metro, largely because as you pointed out the above average overnight lows. We are right around to just above average which seems to be the theme lately.

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

I’m in Westchester… I woke up this morning and it was 59.5° out ...well above normal.

We will be in that uniform temperature environment with BN days and AN nights for the next few days. 

once the storm passes it looks like we’re normal to above normal quite quickly.

 

Where was the 59.5? Seems at least a few degrees high compared to most stations in the area.

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13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes I realized that, but that is why I posted the last 30 days map later. But still no below average within an hour’s drive of NYC metro, largely because as you pointed out the above average overnight lows. We are right around to just above average which seems to be the theme lately.

The minimum temperature departures this month have actually been higher outside NYC.

POU...Max...+1.5...Min...+4.3...Avg...+2.8

HPN...Max...+3.9..Min...+4.2...Avg....+4.0

LGA...Max...+4.0...Min...+1.7..Avg....+2.8

NYC...Max...+4.3...Min...+2.2..Avg....+3.3

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Moderate rain here in Brooklyn

 

I didnt expect heavy rain this early.

 

56 degrees

el busto.    Western edge of rain is much further west than modeled.

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27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

el busto.    Western edge of rain is much further west than modeled.

I'm giddy :D

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looking forward to the toasty weather past mid October, we should see widespread 70s and even 80s for some. 

I do think November turns much colder though, the last several years have had colder Novembers along with March. 

80’s??? Did you have your coffee this morning! Fall is here there’s not going to be 80’s anymore sorry to break it to you.

Moderate rain here in midtown Manhattan with a temperature of 54

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

80’s??? Did you have your coffee this morning! Fall is here there’s not going to be 80’s anymore sorry to break it to you.

Moderate rain here in midtown Manhattan with a temperature of 54

We've had 80 degree weather in late October in recent years. Just because it's cool now doesn't mean in can't warm up again, and we see strong signals that we'll see a warm stretch later in the month. We're done with 90 degree weather, but we can certainly see a couple more 80 degree days. At the very least we'll see some more mid-upper 70s.

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Finally the long duration soaking rain we desperately needed! The prolonged nature of the rain will allow the ground to slowly moisten and begin absorbing the rain. You do not want Short duration heavy convective rain when the Ground is dried to a hard shell as it just runs off.

Winds are pretty meh so far on the island. I was surfing earlier and the waves are increasing. There should be some good erosion at prone locations. Long Beach is going to loose a ton of the dredged sand.

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10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting watching the 2 areas of precip intersect over central nj

 

inxr1kphla (1).gif

No rain here yet this morning. To me it doesn't look as if much rain will make it west of NYC for this whole event. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if we're lucky.

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Finally the long duration soaking rain we desperately needed! The prolonged nature of the rain will allow the ground to slowly moisten and begin absorbing the rain. You do not want Short duration heavy convective rain when the Ground is dried to a hard shell as it just runs off.

Winds are pretty meh so far on the island. I was surfing earlier and the waves are increasing. There should be some good erosion at prone locations. Long Beach is going to loose a ton of the dredged sand.

saw it elsewhere but we should see the best winds tonight into tomorrow morning.    Same up here-heavy to moderate rains all day so far.   down to 50 degrees.

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17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

80’s??? Did you have your coffee this morning! Fall is here there’s not going to be 80’s anymore sorry to break it to you.

Moderate rain here in midtown Manhattan with a temperature of 54

How did your no 90 in October call work out?

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