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Rtd208

October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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I wonder if it will be like 2007 when we peaked in mid November.  Though that year the heat remained well into October 

“With seasons like this, you usually have an extended period of color,” said Frank Lombardo, a meteorologist and chief executive officer of the WeatherWorks forecasting company, based in Warren County. “The trees that are susceptible to drier weather will start turning leaves early. The trees that are healthy and aren’t stressed will start to turn their leaves later, so you’ll get an extended season.”

A big factor contributing to colorful fall foliage seasons in New Jersey is adequate rain, which helps keep the root system of trees strong, Lombardo noted.

“We had a very wet spring," he said. "So a lot of trees are healthy, with a lot of leaves hanging on.”

Despite some trees that are shedding their leaves a little early, Tom Sheppard also is confident New Jersey will have a colorful autumn.

“I think we’ll have a nice fall foliage season,” said Sheppard, chief park naturalist for the Hunterdon County Division of Parks and Recreation. “Will we have the best one? I wouldn’t say that, but I think we’ll have a solid one. I think all the rain we had early in the year has been enough to keep the trees in good condition.”

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11 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like the NAO will be negative  as we head into October.

Great. Then it will disappear in December and not return again til April.....

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18 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Been nothing but swells on the ocean punctuated by rough seas; can't get out to the fish. of course the weather will cool and the fish will move out of range now. For the first time, thinking about moving south and living near a lake. Winter really is too long here, even if it doesn't always seem that way.

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The first 8 days of October are averaging 65degs.,  or about 4 or 5degs. AN.

EURO, GFS shaking hands now on the first 3 days of October:  Both> 82, 88, 73.    EURO lower for this weekend:  58, 68 vs. 64, 65.

64.2* here at 6am.   67.5* by 10am.    69.5* at 11am.    71.0* at Noon.   78.0* by 4pm.   79.1* at 4:30pm.(just saw a 95* output from Cincinnati)   80.4* at 5pm.

For anyone interested, this is CFSv2 500mb predictions currently  for weeks centered on date shown":

Oct. 01  AN+,    Oct. 08   N,    Oct. 15   N,     Oct. 22    BN,    Oct.  29  AN,    Nov. 05   N.

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This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating

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44 minutes ago, Sal Blandino said:

This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating

Welcome to weather models

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1 hour ago, Sal Blandino said:

This constant changing thinking of the weather models just really upsets me. Two days ago I was watching an animation of the precip on map and it forecasted nothing after Thursdays system until the very end of next week at the earliest and now today it has a ton of rain here from late Sunday through Tuesday. I mean this is just aggravating and frustrating that models never know anything. What I would like is that cold front to just please move through with any precip from late Sunday and be out of here by Monday with high pressure back in control from Monday through next week. This just makes looking at the forecast very frustrating

The solution is to stop practicing modelology and learn more about the weather and how things work so you can make your own determinations. The models are really only supposed to be used as more tools in your kit that enable you to make the best decision as to how you see the weather unfolding for the next period of time. 

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...............................................................

October temperature and precipitation for NYC...

decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min......Rainfall

1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6......76.0...34.1......85...29......3.55"

1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17"

1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59"

1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39"

1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41"

1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"

1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22"

1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42"

1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"

1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45"

1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88"

1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01"

1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85"

2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23"

2010's.....59.1.......64.1....57.1......80.7...38.7......86...33......3.99"...2010-2018

1870---

2009........56.8.......63.6....48.6......80.0...36.8......94...28......3.66"

1980---

2009........57.2.......64.1....52.8......78.9...38.0......87...31......4.36"

Warmest...

64.1 in 2017

63.6 in 1947

63.6 in 2007

63.1 in 1949

62.7 in 1971

61.9 in 1990

Coolest...

48.6 in 1888

49.7 in 1889

50.6 in 1925

50.6 in 1876

50.9 in 1869

wettest"...

16.73 in 2005

13.31 in 1903

12.97 in 1913

09.00 in 1927

08.63 in 1983

driest...

0.14 in 1963

0.28 in 1924

0.36 in 2013

0.43 in 1879

0.59 in 1892

0.66 in 2001

0.66 in 1909

Snowiest"...

2.9" in 2011

0.8" in 1925

0.5" in 1876

0.5" in 1952

Hottest max..

94 in 1941 10/5

91 in 1939 10/10

90 in 1927 10/2

90 in 1941 10/6

90 in 1938 10/17

89 in 1922 10/5

Coolest monthly max...

66 in 1888

70 in 1894

70 in 1895

70 in 1977

71 in 1981

Coldest min...

28 in 1936 10/27

29 in 1879 10/25

29 in 1976 10/27

29 in 1976 10/28

29 in 1925 10/31

29 in 1887 10/31

warmest monthly min...

45 in 1946

45 in 1971

44 in 2004

43 in 1994

43 in 1927

Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...

1876...32

1879...29

1877...29

1889...32

1904...32

1917...32

1925...29

1928...32

1933...32

1936...28

1940...30

1965...32

1969...31

1972...32

1974...31

1975...31

1976...29

1988...31

.................................................................

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

New all time record October high temperature in Cincinnati today.

 

and cleveland, and louisville, and indy, and lexington, and nashville, and birmingham...

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bet tomorrow busts high unless the clouds/front come too early.    Midwest warmth was impressive today and that's coming east

Agree, widespread low 90s, maybe even mid 90s?

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bet tomorrow busts high unless the clouds/front come too early.   

agreed. warm spots may end up being JFK, adjacent parts of the south shore and the jersey shore. think we'll have some spotty thunderstorms with the late afternoon front, too.

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

October all-time records:

JFK: 90 on 10/8/2007

LGA and EWR: 93 on 10/5/1941

NYC: 94 on 10/5/1941

ISP: 88 on 10/8/2007

westerly compressing flow ahead of a BDCF is money for big heat here

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21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

westerly compressing flow ahead of a BDCF is money for big heat here

I guess the only thing stopping it would be debris cirrus from whatever complex survives out of the Midwest/Lakes tonight.

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

and cleveland, and louisville, and indy, and lexington, and nashville, and birmingham...

Looks like Syracuse also set a new all time October record high of 88 degrees.

 

 
 
Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1963 87 0
2 1951 86 0
- 1950 86 0
- 1949 86 0
 
 

 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

I guess the only thing stopping it would be debris cirrus from whatever complex survives out of the Midwest/Lakes tonight.

i forgot about that because of the time of year 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Syracuse also set a new all time October record high of 88 degrees.

 

 
 
Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1963 87 0
2 1951 86 0
- 1950 86 0
- 1949 86 0
 
 

 

1963 had a mild October and November but very cold December...coldest week and month came in December that winter...

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The 18z GFS has a pretty sizeable rain event/coastal storm for the early and middle part of next week. Still a little ways out but nice to see things becoming active again.

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