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October 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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3 hours ago, eco94 said:

My concerns about the flash drought- and I'm near JFK- were in regards to vegetation.  for everyone dismissing that, it's really important, too. Luckily most young trees seemed to make it through this one, and more rain this week is extremely  welcome too. Just because it didn't affect the water supply doesn't mean it was/is something to shake off- I'm still pretty concerned about the tree canopy.

We are fortunate that lower end DO to D2 drought conditions have been the worst we have experienced here since 2002. The rest of the country hasn’t been so lucky with extended periods of D3 and D4 drought. So occasionally we have to put up with low soil moisture like the last month. This is mainly a concern for landscape and agricultural interests rather water supply managers.

Great animation showing how lucky we have been compared to other parts of the country since 2002:

https://twitter.com/akrherz

Simple lapse of the CONUS portion of the US Drought Monitor since 2000. Please feel free to use however you wish. Raw mp4 here:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/pickup/usdm/2000_2019_lapse.mp4

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Whether or not the potential system verifies, this paper provides useful insight for November through April (the potential event is just outside the timeframe):

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1

Nice article on the the link you posted Don,  Thanks

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The coolest air mass so far this fall sent the temperature to 45° in Central Park and 43° in Newark. That was New York City's lowest temperature since May 15 when the temperature fell to 44° and Newark's lowest temperature since May 13 when the temperature also reached 43°. Outside the cities, temperatures fell into the 30s.

Even as the historic autumn heat wave of 2019 continued to abate, several locations set new daily record high temperatures.

Records included:

Birmingham: 97°
Crestview, FL: 96° (12th consecutive daily record high temperature)
Huntsville, AL: 97°
Mobile: 94°
Muscle Schoals, AL: 98°
Nashville: 95°

Across the Atlantic, many locations in Norway set daily record low temperatures.

Moderation is likely over the next few days. However, by the middle of next week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. It remains uncertain whether this air mass will result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward.

However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could be come warmer than normal, especially during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -20.82 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.693.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November.

On October 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.417 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.673. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 14 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 11-25, 2017 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 56%.

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Next 8 are averaging 60degs., or about 1deg. AN.

62.9* here at 6am.

GFS/EURO more in line now on Total P at about 2",(Tues-Sat) which is down by a factor of 2 for the EURO.

The next action-packed thriller after this week's show/no-show, should be from Oct. 19-23.

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are often surprises with cutoff lows. This week there will be 2 under the near record Newfoundland block.  

@bluewave does this feature, the Newfoundland block  and its circulation at the surface, contribute to any significant SST adjustments up there off NE Canada?  Does it reinforce any cold pool  and /or possibly aide in the typical - NAO  sea surface pattern that some believe support a semi-seasonal -NAO ?

 

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some snowy years didn't need a negative nao to be snowy...

DJFM monthly nao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park...

season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date...

1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17

1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22

1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16

1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9

1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13

1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8

1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6

1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13

1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26

1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7

2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7

2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10

2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28

2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14

2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27

2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3

2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1

2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12

2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28

2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12

2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6

2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro is so strong with the block over Newfoundland, that the low forms further to the SE this run. So it has several days of clouds and onshore flow. But not much rain after the stalled front rains from Monday into early  Tuesday.

It wouldn't take much for the storm to retrograde in our area  . Anyway , this whole week looks crappy with periods of rain.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro is so strong with the block over Newfoundland, that the low forms further to the SE this run. So it has several days of clouds and onshore flow. But not much rain after the stalled front rains from Monday into early  Tuesday.

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The NAM/Euro/UKMET are in the further east camp with the track of the low. We could see some rains if the low loops back to the  west enough. It may come down to the strength of that block over Newfoundland. In any event, at least  an extended period of onshore flow and low clouds. 

Even if we don't see any/much rain from this there will be a prolonged period of coastal impacts that's for sure. There will probably be at least some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion.

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we'll get plenty of sunshine as the storm looks to be well offshore. Not much wind either and highs will be near normal with lows well above. 

Block will keep this too far away from us.  No deluge this time.

What are you looking at ?

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Milder air returned to the region today. Despite mainly cloudy skies, readings were generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. However, by the middle of this week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. It remains uncertain whether this air mass will result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward.

However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could become warmer than normal, especially during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase.

Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal.

The SOI was -11.22 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.693.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°.

The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November.

On October 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.419.

The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 11-25, 2017 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 55%.

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 1deg. AN.

68.7* here at 6am.    73.4* by 11am, with broken cloud cover.    74.4* at Noon.      75.5* by 1pm.

.

Apparently no more than 2" will fall by next Sunday AM, probably less, as storm stalls at sea on most models/runs, but does not combine with land precipitation directly.    Most rain will fall Wed.?   Some minor coastal flooding will take place later in the week,   eg.  Perth Amboy +3'.

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