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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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16 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS develops the next wave coming off Africa. Takes a very similar track to Dorian. Ends up getting captured and rocketed up the coast lol

GotlrY9.gif

50 miles west and that's a disaster for LI. 1938 redux?

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Nothing will ever top Sandy, 1 in 250 year storm

More like 1 in 750. 

In fact we're far more likely to see a LI express than a Sandy. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

More like 1 in 750. 

In fact we're far more likely to see a LI express than a Sandy. 

True, but 38 was far far far worse for areas east of the Nassau Suffolk border. Cat 3 winds and a tremendous surge that can only be estimated between 15-20’.

Then there’s 1635 which is the king of north east hurricanes 

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

True, but 38 was far far far worse for areas east of the Nassau Suffolk border. Cat 3 winds and a tremendous surge that can only be estimated between 15-20’.

Then there’s 1635 which is the king of north east hurricanes 

Yeah based on sediment samples 1635 could've been a low end cat 4 apparently. 

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22 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah based on sediment samples 1635 could've been a low end cat 4 apparently. 

any track maps of that one?  Would be curious to see where it originated from

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

any track maps of that one?  Would be curious to see where it originated from

Details are pretty sketchy given the time period, but it brushed OBX before landfalling somewhere around RI with a nearly 20 foot surge. It is believed to have been a Cape Verde system, from what I understand. 

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Don't think we need a separate thread for local impacts from Dorian but a lot of the latest guidance brings some direct impacts into the area, especially for Eastern sections. 

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12z HMON pummels Long Island and the Jersey shore on Friday into Saturday with heavy rain and 40-50mph winds.

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Euro has a massive bomb way offshore. Imagine if it was near our area ?

 

The storm just missed the phase on the Euro. Really close to a hurricane up here.

 

Thanks to the positive NAO, that will not be happening.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HMON pummels Long Island and the Jersey shore on Friday into Saturday with heavy rain and 40-50mph winds.

I wouldn’t Call that “pummeling”. we get that in run of the mill nor’easters out here

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I wouldn’t Call that “pummeling”. we get that in run of the mill nor’easters out here

Verbatim it would be a good shellacking. Especially since a lot of the guidance deepens the storm again once past OBX.

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24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I wouldn’t Call that “pummeling”. we get that in run of the mill nor’easters out here

937 low offshore on the euro

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ANZ338-042030-
/O.CON.KOKX.MA.W.0122.000000T0000Z-190904T2030Z/
410 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

For the following areas...
New York Harbor...

At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts
was located over Upper New York Harbor, moving east at 25 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous seas. Boats could suffer significant structural
         damage in high winds. Small craft could capsize in suddenly
         higher waves.

The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters.

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