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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Looks like a close miss here. Not by much. Whatever was left of it just skirted by to the west of me after this frame. Looks like it was dissipating a bit, but I'd rather not take my chances with a tree falling on my house anyway...

Screenshot_20190902-170356_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.987cc69c2d96951df7f18437d7d0d250.jpg

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Looks like we are still running 'Out of the Money' with Dorian.     Core misses BM by 165 miles and the City by about 400 miles.   

024806_most_likely_toa_34.png

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23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Media is starting to mention about Dorian possibly affecting our area 

:facepalm:Minimal effects with the exception of maybe Long Island as it stands now, subject to change.

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Hurricane Dorian will continue to gradually weaken tonight and tomorrow as continues its slow turn to the north. Nevertheless, Dorian will remain a powerful hurricane. Dorian will likely pass just off the Florida Peninsula. As Dorian comes northward and gradually takes a more eastward turn, portions of the Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas' coastlines will likely experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Coastal flooding is very likely.

Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian.

Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, the most recent round of excessive heat continues to dissipate in Europe. Nevertheless, as the area of warmth headed north and east, a number of records were set.

Select records included: Kecskemet, Hungary: 91°, Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 72° (tied September record); Kruunupyy, Finland: 73°; Murmansk, Russia: 75° (new September record); Oulu, Finland: 75°; Pecs, Hungary: 90°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 72°; Szolnok, Hungary: 91°; and, Vadso, Norway: 68°.

In the United States, Denver recorded a 100° high temperature, its latest 100° reading on record. The prior latest such temperature occurred on August 16, 2002. Pueblo, CO also saw the temperature set a new September record at 102°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -20.86 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.419.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

On September 1, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.881 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.039.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 48%.

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Sky lighting up to the north from those storms way up in central/northern CT.

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 09/02/19 TORNADO EVENT...

.Preliminary survey results for Suffolk County, NY...

Start Location...Manorville in Suffolk County, NY
End Location...Manorville in Suffolk County, NY
Date...September 2 2019
Estimated Time...4:33 to 4:38 pm EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph
Maximum Path Width...50 yards
Path Length...1.6 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...40.8417/-72.8313
Ending Lat/Lon...40.8646/-72.8235
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...
A severe thunderstorm moving northeast over Mastic/Shirley and
then into Manorville in southeast Suffolk County produced an EF0
tornado. The tornado first touched down on Dayton Street, about
400 yards south of the intersection of South Street and Dayton
Avenue in Manorville. It sheared large tree limbs and the tops off
of dozens of oak, maple and pine trees, as well as uprooting at
least a dozen shallow rooted large trees. Several electric poles
were downed by falling trees on this block, with collateral tree
damage noted to a few houses in the neighborhood. The tornado
continued northeast through the south end of neighboring Rosewood
Street and then across its intersecting cross street of South
Street. Several more trees were uprooted, large limbs broken, or
tree tops sheared on this leg of its path. Facing houses on the
north and south side of South Street had widespread tree damage
and uprooting. A shed was destroyed in this location as well,
with damage to residences in the form of sporadic blown off
shingles and siding, missing storm screens, and a couple of broken
windows. The tornado then continued northeast through a wooded
area, where more tree damage was noted, before crossing the Long
Island Expressway near Exit 69 while lifting. The path of tree
damage and debris ended on the service road on the north side of
the LIE near the intersection with Wading River Road.

Many thanks to Suffolk County Fire, Rescue and Emergency Services,
Brookhaven Highway Department, and local residents for their
assistance in conducting this storm survey.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$
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1 hour ago, uofmiami said:
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 09/02/19 TORNADO EVENT...

.Preliminary survey results for Suffolk County, NY...

Start Location...Manorville in Suffolk County, NY
End Location...Manorville in Suffolk County, NY
Date...September 2 2019
Estimated Time...4:33 to 4:38 pm EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph
Maximum Path Width...50 yards
Path Length...1.6 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...40.8417/-72.8313
Ending Lat/Lon...40.8646/-72.8235
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...
A severe thunderstorm moving northeast over Mastic/Shirley and
then into Manorville in southeast Suffolk County produced an EF0
tornado. The tornado first touched down on Dayton Street, about
400 yards south of the intersection of South Street and Dayton
Avenue in Manorville. It sheared large tree limbs and the tops off
of dozens of oak, maple and pine trees, as well as uprooting at
least a dozen shallow rooted large trees. Several electric poles
were downed by falling trees on this block, with collateral tree
damage noted to a few houses in the neighborhood. The tornado
continued northeast through the south end of neighboring Rosewood
Street and then across its intersecting cross street of South
Street. Several more trees were uprooted, large limbs broken, or
tree tops sheared on this leg of its path. Facing houses on the
north and south side of South Street had widespread tree damage
and uprooting. A shed was destroyed in this location as well,
with damage to residences in the form of sporadic blown off
shingles and siding, missing storm screens, and a couple of broken
windows. The tornado then continued northeast through a wooded
area, where more tree damage was noted, before crossing the Long
Island Expressway near Exit 69 while lifting. The path of tree
damage and debris ended on the service road on the north side of
the LIE near the intersection with Wading River Road.

Many thanks to Suffolk County Fire, Rescue and Emergency Services,
Brookhaven Highway Department, and local residents for their
assistance in conducting this storm survey.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

Even light structural damage. Was an EF0 but still pretty strong. Broken windows, siding ripped off, shed destroyed 

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7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Even light structural damage. Was an EF0 but still pretty strong. Broken windows, siding ripped off, shed destroyed 

There was obvious low level rotation and strong rising motion into a low ceiling when I passed through that storm about 15 miles west of there on the way home from out East.  Told my wife it might drop something as we drove by and she told me to keep my ****ing storm chasing to my storm chasing trips and to keep driving, buster.

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2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Was this tornado the same one as the waterspout off of Fire island? 

That would of had to travel a long distance to be the same one.

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The GFS develops the next wave coming off Africa. Takes a very similar track to Dorian. Ends up getting captured and rocketed up the coast lol

GotlrY9.gif

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS develops the next wave coming off Africa. Takes a very similar track to Dorian. Ends up getting captured and rocketed up the coast lol

GotlrY9.gif

Yup, there's a train of waves coming from Africa right now and the pattern seems favorable for a coastal track.

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Dorian has moved slowly away from the Bahamas and is now moving northwestward off the Florida Peninsula. Tomorrow, Dorian will gradually accelerate and eventually add an easterly component to its motion. In addition to Florida's east coast, portions of the Georgia's, South Carolina's, North Carolina's, and Virginia's coastlines will likely experience heavy rain and at least some damaging winds. Coastal flooding is very likely.

Afterward, Dorian will likely pass far enough to the east to avoid having a significant impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents. Parts of Long Island and eastern New England could still receive some periods of rain or heavier showers and gusty winds associated with Dorian. The storm will likely eventually make landfall in Newfoundland.

Dorian's principal impact might be the amplification of the larger circulation. As a result, an unseasonably cool air mass could push into the region for the latter part of this week. Beyond that, the timing for a return to normal and then above normal temperatures could be slow. Some of the guidance is signaling a rebound to notably warmer conditions after mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around August 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -16.70 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.835.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely, though the persistence of Dorian's impact on the larger circulation has reduced the probability of a warmer than normal September, though a warm monthly anomaly remains the base case. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

On September 2, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.031 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.879.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is 53%.

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