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Still the same at 5:00

5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.2°N 74.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
 

Recon won't be there for a while - still over the GOM

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43 minutes ago, Solak said:

Still the same at 5:00

5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.2°N 74.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
 

Recon won't be there for a while - still over the GOM

Typo?

Or are they investigating what's over the Yucatan Peninsula ?

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The plane took off from MS or West FL, approaching the islands.

Another plane took off from FL and is now in the Bahamas.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS back to a NC hit...at least for this run

 

HP seems to be weaker and further North this run, allows it to come closer to coast.

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0z and 6z were the same for the gfs. Too close for comfort. Another 50 miles NW and you have a floyd type track inland.

Of course climo says recurve and the other models are offshore.

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8 hours ago, downeastnc said:

GFS back to a NC hit...at least for this run

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.thumb.png.0c58d0668f51efd12c293848d2f71f58.png

The 0z Canadian and Icon still show landfall in FL. 

Canadian follows 95 to about Charleston then goes back over water south of MB and Wilmington. 

I think it's safe to say it's going to curve.

But when and where?

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Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

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15 minutes ago, Solak said:
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

With gusts over 200 mph !   Strongest hurricane on record this far north in the Atlantic

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22 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

With gusts over 200 mph !   Strongest hurricane on record this far north in the Atlantic

Absurd to say the least. I'm amazed it's gone this long without a ewc...wonder what the record for that is too?

20 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island.  https://twitter.com/iCyclone

Always liked josh but him tempting fate with storms like this are a real gamble. Is there anyway structures survive 200mph winds...never mind the storm surge. 

 

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

Absurd to say the least. I'm amazed it's gone this long without a ewc...wonder what the record for that is too?

I think Irma has the record for longest time as category five hurricane--36 hours. What's really interesting about Dorian and ERCs is that it had one as a category one hurricane, which only happens about 10% of the time. I wonder if that allowed it to create the internal stability that allowed it to maximize environmental conditions and resist future ERCs. It'll certainly be a research topic in the future for some.  

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30 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

Wow, grim to say the least; hopefully, this means eyewall replacement very soon.

There is no signs of a ERC happening anytime soon, the storm is pretty annular so i wouldn't think one would happen in the next 12-24 hrs but you never know.....pressure down to 910 or so once the winds catch up this will be the strongest ATL hurricane ever recorded of there is a plane out to sample it when it peaks.

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Bastardi comments specific to Wilmington Area

Joe Bastardi just said prepare for wind gusts at least 75 to 100 along NC Coast with 120 to 140 possible in places.  Similar to Hurricane Helene in 1958 for Wilmington relative to impacts.

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ICON finally caved to the Euro/GFS with the turn off Fl  and movement up the east coast offshore.....then it does this.....

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_37.thumb.png.1da215f531b2a3b368fc4cbf38c6eb77.png

 

12Z GFS also hits this looks like mid to late Thursday so 4 days from now....starting to think I might get some decent winds here luckily it looks Cat1 weak Cat 2 at worse....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.thumb.png.630dcbdf370f0b493378626b1fbc77b9.png

 

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The models are not digging the second shortwave over the norther plains/great lakes quite as much. In fact, the trend has been that direction for several runs now. It would allow dorian to curve NNE as opposed to NE or ENE. This is obviously significant for the Carolinas.

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So far major changes on the Canadian from 0z to 12z.

12z holds Dorian back near the Bahamas(Freeport).

Slower, looks poised to do a sharp right turn.

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Someone from the low country can correct me if I'm wrong but isnt this the worst possible angle for them for storm surge? 

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Canadian model still makes landfall south of Titusville,FL @ 980 mb.  Heads north. East of Orlando re emerges off of Palm Coast, Fl.

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