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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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From the looks of the pattern and my model reading the heat is not done... after Thursday we’ll have some nice days but at least the potential is there for more heat at the end of August and beginning of September but this heat will not be accompanied by high humidity, it looks to be the dry heat effect instead which would be good news. Have a good night folks

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

No big heat or humidity for a while after this week. The WAR and Bermuda high gets replaced by the high over SE Canada. So we get into a NE to E flow from the Canadian Maritimes. 

 

E49DD8FD-D114-41B1-A35B-FCF83ADBA8B1.thumb.png.4c35de084ab2ee390f9f1bda50287c03.png

There is heat coming again it won’t be as intense and as humid but look out late August early September some 90’s are possible

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

There is heat coming again it won’t be as intense and as humid but look out late August early September some 90’s are possible

Doesn’t look like anything too impressive at this time as the high will still be east of New England near the end of the month. Maybe a few warmer days before the next cold front and high moves in first week of September. But September is usually good for a few more 90 degree days. 

 

96BE3DE3-1FD3-43F8-AF7F-C4B7CD069E31.thumb.png.769542c29647e5325fa326c2c8571d7b.png

 

 

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Doesn’t look like anything too impressive at this time as the high will still be east of New England near the end of the month. Maybe a few warmer days before the next cold front and high moves in first week of September. But September is usually good for a few more 90 degree days. 

 

96BE3DE3-1FD3-43F8-AF7F-C4B7CD069E31.thumb.png.769542c29647e5325fa326c2c8571d7b.png

 

 

The euro weeklies were crazy warm for September-will have to see if they were over-done....

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Pending on clouds on Thu 58/22) 850's again approach 19-22c so another chance for mid 90s with sunshine. We'll see if the warmer spots can grab 90 today even with the NE flow.

11AM Roundup

PHL: 86
ACY: 86
TEB: 85
New Bnswk: 85  
ISP: 84
JFK: 84
EWR: 84
NYC: 82
TTN: 82
LGA: 81
BLM: 81

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2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

There is heat coming again it won’t be as intense and as humid but look out late August early September some 90’s are possible

Far out there but do see some transient ridging possible with some warmer/heat transport on/around  Fri-Sun (labor day weekend)

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43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The euro weeklies were crazy warm for September-will have to see if they were over-done....

It looks we’ll probably finish August with under 10 days reaching 90 degrees. The Septembers that followed this pattern since 2010 usually featured 0 to 3 days reaching 90 degrees at Newark. Missing count column has the number of September 90 degree days.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
2019 3  
2018 14 4
2017 2 3
2016 13 5
2015 13 5
2014 2 3
2013 3 1
2012 7 2
2011 4 0
2010 11 6

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

You could've made an accurate long distance forecast for the past year by looking at the Euro Weeklies and predicting the exact opposite.

I agree-they were horrid last winter.   I certainly look at them based on past successes, but it's only one of many tools....

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52 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

For what it's worth - The Old Farmer's Almanac appears to be forecasting another non-winter in the Northeast for the second consecutive year.

image.thumb.png.8ea6b9b36f54ec2624f9d4b1bbf40645.png

looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map.  If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially.

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map.  If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially.

If the previous Fast PAC Jet recurs, I hope the North East, Mid Atlantic zones and the continental shelf waters are on the pill. as always ....

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