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Ji

Is next winter looking like a disaster?

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16 hours ago, frd said:

Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ?  If so, no guarantee of a change.   

Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall.   

Seems to be more at play here.  So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome.  

I rather have a  +PDO, favorable PAC , etc. 

 

 

 

I like the PDO too. These summertime storms off of New Foundland are a great sign for the Winter.

f0-1.gif

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On 7/17/2019 at 8:26 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

Last 2 weak Nina winters(16-17, 17-18) had the big early January beach snowstorms. Let's do that again.

I learned my lesson last time...I am definitely chasing.

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Let's hope it's HORRIBLE!

That's what most people call a winter that I enjoy.  I do like snow.  Not mixed or pure ZR (although it's pretty) but snow.  Enough to plow the lanes out! 

A combo of 95-96 and 09-10 would be perfect!  Anyone remember that crazy storm in Nov '95?  I was in Towson and it dropped from near 70°F down to mid 30s and Putty Hill Ave was nearly impassible due to slush.  And the derecho like wind gusts 60-70 mph when it blew through.  We've had some crazy wind storms in Nov.  I remember 1989 had a few too.

If it's not going to snow over a foot at least have some decent wind.  Light powder drifts like crazy around here.

It's rare for our area but getting a blizzard warning with the stars shining at night is super awesome!  Could've had that this past Jan with the wind and cold if there was a 10" of fresh powder...

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10 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

Let's hope it's HORRIBLE!

That's what most people call a winter that I enjoy.  I do like snow.  Not mixed or pure ZR (although it's pretty) but snow.  Enough to plow the lanes out! 

A combo of 95-96 and 09-10 would be perfect!  Anyone remember that crazy storm in Nov '95?  I was in Towson and it dropped from near 70°F down to mid 30s and Putty Hill Ave was nearly impassible due to slush.  And the derecho like wind gusts 60-70 mph when it blew through.  We've had some crazy wind storms in Nov.  I remember 1989 had a few too.

If it's not going to snow over a foot at least have some decent wind.  Light powder drifts like crazy around here.

It's rare for our area but getting a blizzard warning with the stars shining at night is super awesome!  Could've had that this past Jan with the wind and cold if there was a 10" of fresh powder...

Now, I’m a student, and I want a ton of snow too. On December 9th and 10th of this past winter we had that storm that gave the Central Virginia area around 10” of snow. They had the roads plowed so quickly that it was pretty disappointing we had to be back to class so quickly. I’m hoping for a lot of storms that drop just enough to close for a few days, but not enough for them to feel the need to plow off the side roads.

After that storm though, there wasn’t a single snow storm as far as i can remember... just rain, and may some snow that accumulated north of Central VA.

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We are gonna have a neutral ENSO.

That means a massive snow winter for the entire Mid Atlantic! Get your Jebman Shovels and ice melter!

You're gonna need em!

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This record would be cool in the winter months.  Maybe yes, maybe no, but 83 days, wow !

Seems the cold pool was responsible for the long cycle of the -NAO. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

 

This record would be cool in the winter months.  Maybe yes, maybe no, but 83 days, wow !

Seems the cold pool was responsible for the long cycle of the -NAO. 

 

 

A painful sight! Can't get it to do this during winter for...how many years now? 10? Lol Hope this is just on a decade cycle or something...because then you'd hope we'd be due!

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Hoping we have one of the warmest winters of all time. I could use highs in the 50s straight through January.

 

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4 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Hoping we have one of the warmest winters of all time. I could use highs in the 50s straight through January.

 

*Inserts virtual trap door for you to fall through*

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From Don S.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

 

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5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Coming soon: NAO- anyone? After being in a positive phase from late november to early march, the NAO has finally turned to negative.

Your comment completely contradicts the tweet from above... did you type that correctly?

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2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Your comment completely contradicts the tweet from above... did you type that correctly?

They're just (somewhat) joking is all! (We need help...) They're acting as though we're going to have a positive NAO stretching from late November, all the way to early March! 

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Thanks to some help from another forum, I found the 2003-04 winter and it looks like a semi-decent analog right now. We were coming off a prior El Nino winter, ENSO turned weak Nino/Neutral for the winter, Positive PDO, Positive AMO, and there was low solar activity. I expect all of the same for this upcoming winter. However, the summer of 2003 transitioned into a neutral phase much quicker than what is currently forecasted for this summer/fall/winter. I would throw in 2004-05 in case we remain more El Nino, rather than completely neutral. I like 2004's QBO transition into winter as well. It's much better than 2003 and it's close to what I think we could see this winter. A later transition of the QBO could yield later stratospheric impacts deep into winter (February and March, but things like that are fickle and require other variables to look at). 2004-05 also had a warm Atlantic and low solar, but not as warm of a Pacific. 1966-67 is a solid analog with regards to the positive ONI values maintaining closer toward fall/winter. And in case we go more Nina/neutral, it's even greater. I thought about 1959-60 as well. That winter was very very similar to 2003-04 with a transition to neutral much quicker than what is expected this year. It was coming off a weaker El Nino, +AMO, +PDO, low-ish solar activity. But again, the QBO went easterly to westerly during the winter. I like a 2003/1959 winter looking at a warm Atlantic, a fairly warm Pacific, weak El Nino/Neutral ENSO,  lower solar, and then throw in a similar QBO progression seen entering the 2004-05 winter with a switch from westerly to easterly and a later transition from weak El Nino to neutral conditions seen in 1966-67 and you have something like this:

cd24.115.116.101.204.11.55.44.prcp.png

cd24.115.116.101.204.12.2.27.prcp.png

 

Obviously, be aware there is more to a winter than just the variables I pointed out. AAM tendencies, the NAO background state, etc. all are important variables among others. Last year we got killed with a Pacific that would not slow down. We'll see how the Pacific cooperates this year. A lousy Pacific is always more concerning over a lousy Atlantic pattern. I'm excited for fall and the introduction of winter to see what we got on our hands this year.

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17 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

 

Seriously? :facepalm:

lol.  Really went out on a limb with that map.  McHenry is in the "worst of winter" so i'll take the forecast.  :p

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Even though it probably doesn’t mean much this far out, it’s relieving to watch it flip from warmer to colder slowly after each run.

A5A2C2B2-FB3A-499E-B3C8-356E0885D631.png

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3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Keep in mind, examination of teleconnection indices / other proxies in a vacuum is much less salutary than collective usage/relative weighting. That is, the solar cycle in and of itself, or the QBO phase in and of itself, is not too beneficial re: prognostication of polar indices. And of course, it's easy to state, "weight the indices/assign percent contribution" but the inherent challenge is correctly weighting them such that the outcome is a veracious forecast [obviously a non-stationary target]. Some variables supersede and take precedence over others, as evidenced most notably by the progression of last winter.

So, I assume it’s pretty difficult to find out which index / indice will have more of an affect over others. Is the most we can do just look at the past, and the (even with questionable accuracy) predicted strength of the future ones?

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46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CanSIPS is jacked up for some winter in the east.

cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_5.thumb.png.47f672e94ca83ac43f5edc04cc7051b4.png

 

This last day of July initial release may be totally fine, but recently the CanSIPS has been having some issues as alluded to by Ventrice 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CanSIPS is jacked up for some winter in the east.

cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_5.thumb.png.47f672e94ca83ac43f5edc04cc7051b4.png

Damn, walking out the door now for our trip and just took a quick glance at this. CANSIPs is on steroids with the higher heights/blocking in the upper latitudes for a very long duration. We see this verify and I would put good money on our having a very nice winter. Not only that but it would be wall to wall Nov-March. Hell, if not even longer for the favored/colder/elevated locations. But what do they say about the boy... errr.. the CANSIP's that cried wolf?

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Damn, walking out the door now for our trip and just took a quick glance at this. CANSIPs is on steroids with the higher heights/blocking in the upper latitudes for a very long duration. We see this verify and I would put good money on our having a very nice winter. Not only that but it would be wall to wall Nov-March. Hell, if not even longer for the favored/colder/elevated locations. But what do they say about the boy... errr.. the CANSIP's that cried wolf?

Yeah its fun to look at. It literally has HL blocking straight through until April, and  the EPAC looks generally very favorable. The NAO has maintained a negative phase overall for a while now, so who knows. Based on recent years though, during the winter months, we clearly know better.:yikes:

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This last day of July initial release may be totally fine, but recently the CanSIPS has been having some issues as alluded to by Ventrice 

 

lol this probably explains it. I mean, none of these super LR forecasts are ever very good, but that really looked completely whacked out.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol this probably explains it. I mean, none of these super LR forecasts are ever very good, but that really looked completely whacked out.

How quickly we forget when the seasonals nailed the la nina pattern a couple years back. :)

My basic philosophy anymore is if the seasonals are predicting a crap winter then odds are strongly in their favor. A good winter then odds are strongly against. 

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