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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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We will move into early June with another one of our famous repeating weather patterns. Maximum temperature cool down from the last week of May into the first week of June. This looks to be the 4th year out of the last 5 with a cooler maximum temperature at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature May 25 to May 31
Missing Count
2019-05-31 90 4
2018-05-31 92 0
2017-05-31 80 0
2016-05-31 96 0
2015-05-31 91
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 7
Missing Count
2018-06-07 87 0
2017-06-07 82 0
2016-06-07 87 0
2015-06-07 78

 

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Feeling once beyond this period and on/around Jun 8/9 we may see more ridging into the northeast. Perhaps the next and for most first chance at 90s.  We'll see if troughing wants to linger near the northeast.

 

test8.gif

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First 8 days of June averaging 71.5degs., or about 3degs. AN.

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Parts of the Northeast may need to turn on the heat early next week. Near record low 500 mb heights forecast over the region. So more severe potential with such a strong frontal system and steep midlevel lapse rates Sunday.

Very impressively cold upper low will be overhead Monday. Models
suggest 500 mb heights below 545 dam. A check of the SPC
sounding climatology page puts these values near record lows for
3 June. Same with 500 mb temps -25 to -30C and 850 mb temps
around 0C. It will feel decidedly un-June-like with highs
struggling to reach 60 in the Capital District and Glens Falls
area, and 40s and 50s across the high terrain. 

 

35DF3B82-80FB-472E-A9D1-C515F9CA52E1.thumb.gif.e3fa3ca645aa398fdfacf66080b1250f.gif

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Parts of the Northeast may need to turn on the heat early next week. Near record low 500 mb heights forecast over the region. So more severe potential with such a strong frontal system and steep midlevel lapse rates Sunday.

Very impressively cold upper low will be overhead Monday. Models
suggest 500 mb heights below 545 dam. A check of the SPC
sounding climatology page puts these values near record lows for
3 June. Same with 500 mb temps -25 to -30C and 850 mb temps
around 0C. It will feel decidedly un-June-like with highs
struggling to reach 60 in the Capital District and Glens Falls
area, and 40s and 50s across the high terrain.

 

I'll be impressed if highs can stay in the 60s under mostly sunny skies in early June. Lows also forecast to be in the upper 40s, both very rare without a major onshore flow event. 

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if NYC can pull off a low under 50 degrees in June. It hasn’t happened since 2000. But lows in the 40s for areas outside the city look like a good bet.

Highly doubt it

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

A little disappointing how much clouds and haze there is today

Yeah where did that rare mostly sunny day forecast go?

 

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In the past 24 hours, forecast models have increased the idea of severe weather in parts of our area tomorrow. It has gone from a completely linear solution to a multicellular one with the possibility of descrete supercells ahead of the main batch. The mid Hudson Valley through New York City is particularly catching my eye. Instability looks good as well. The main threat should be damaging winds with some hail but I don't think we can rule out an isolated tornado in some areas. 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There’s gotta be serious flash flooding there 

So far only .28" IMBY and I've been directly under the heavier echos. Some occasional thunder & lightning but nothing exciting. 

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38 minutes ago, snywx said:

So far only .28" IMBY and I've been directly under the heavier echos. Some occasional thunder & lightning but nothing exciting. 

Nothing here yet a few rumbles and flashes to my west. Slow movers.

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That’s a lot of rain and most likely a lot of flash flooding by the New Jersey/Pennsylvania border. It’s a slow moving batch so let’s see how east does it come. 

FBFD0C5E-E250-4564-8CE0-72B9D345A47B.png

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Not expecting much tonight as convection is weakening and could dry up before reaching Eastern sections. Tomorrow should see multiple rounds of storms.

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Parameters for tomorrow are rather favorable for landspouts if we can get any isolated development instead of line after line.

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21 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Parameters for tomorrow are rather favorable for landspouts if we can get any isolated development instead of line after line.

Yup. We'll have to keep an eye out for descrete cells just in front of linear activity.

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25 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Yup. We'll have to keep an eye out for descrete cells just in front of linear activity.

If today was any indication we should be ripe. Lots of moisture in play with peak insular heating.

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This is one of those years when the spring pattern continues right into early MET summer. Strong vortex and SST cold pool near New England. This limits the warmth potential for us with a continuing active convection pattern. The 2010’s have been famous for these stuck weather patterns.

 

6607AE01-C516-4AF9-8F0C-B4C4331B224D.thumb.png.1da9190c3a0adae1b56a9d93d8c04dea.png

1F3BB00A-11B9-4184-98E8-6C9B42133599.thumb.png.663e56d6514c4a232e4650ed5c25c30b.png

5847EC19-CE1E-4638-A2C9-4FF97955777A.png.cec6da2b696d595bca5f8437be46605b.png

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is one of those years when the spring pattern continues right into early MET summer. Strong vortex and SST cold pool near New England. This limits the warmth potential for us with a continuing active convection pattern. The 2010’s have been famous for these stuck weather patterns.

 

6607AE01-C516-4AF9-8F0C-B4C4331B224D.thumb.png.1da9190c3a0adae1b56a9d93d8c04dea.png

1F3BB00A-11B9-4184-98E8-6C9B42133599.thumb.png.663e56d6514c4a232e4650ed5c25c30b.png

5847EC19-CE1E-4638-A2C9-4FF97955777A.png.cec6da2b696d595bca5f8437be46605b.png

Haven't put in the air conditioners yet, and won't need them next week either.  Latest they've gone in for quite awhile.  Usually we get some kind of early season heat, even if it cools down afterward.

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8 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Yup. We'll have to keep an eye out for descrete cells just in front of linear activity.

Anything that pops on a sea breeze boundary will have ~9C/KM lapse rate to stretch vorticity with, deep moisture, and some low-level spin.  Tube time.

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7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Haven't put in the air conditioners yet, and won't need them next week either.  Latest they've gone in for quite awhile.  Usually we get some kind of early season heat, even if it cools down afterward.

It has delayed the first day above 90 at Newark by at least a few weeks. Average first day for the 2010’s has been May 20th. This will be the first time later than June 1st since 2014.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69
Mean 05-20 09-06 108
Maximum 06-17 (2014) 09-24 (2017) 153
2019 - - - - -
2018 05-03 (2018) 94 09-06 (2018) 98 125
2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-24 (2017) 92 129
2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-14 (2016) 94 111
2015 05-26 (2015) 91 09-09 (2015) 91 105
2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80
2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103
2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-01 (2012) 92 95
2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-08 (2010) 93 153
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