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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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Time to fire up a thread banger

Sunday into Sunday night ...

Low pres tracking SE of the 40N/70W benchmark early Sun may bring a
few showers to the outer Cape and Nantucket Sun morning, otherwise
skies should become partly sunny. Mid level trough approaches from
the Great Lakes with attending cold front moving across New York
state in the afternoon. 500 mb temps -14 to -15C combined with
surface heating will allow modest instability to develop in the
afternoon with SBCAPEs 1000-1500 J/kg, focused in the interior. Best
deep layer shear is lagging instability but there is a window during
the mid/late afternoon where 1000+ J/kg CAPE coincides with 0-6km
shear around 30 kt. Expect scattered showers and t-storms to develop
and a few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly interior.
Steep low level lapse rates support strong winds with any t-storms
but hail also a threat given cold 500 mb temps. Highs should reach
well into 70s, except upper 60s east coastal MA and Cape/Islands
where sea breezes will keep it cooler.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Sub 0C 850s up here on Tuesday and then again the following weekend in Day 8-10 range.  

The 850 anomalies are pretty nuts.  No way that verified as we've seen the Euro too deep with those troughs many times...but that model argues that any sustained heat is a while off.

Just keep the fukin frost away

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Sub 0C 850s up here on Tuesday and then again the following weekend in Day 8-10 range.  

The 850 anomalies are pretty nuts.  No way that verified as we've seen the Euro too deep with those troughs many times...but that model argues that any sustained heat is a while off.

mmm.. not really the right read but okay -

well correction: you mean "sustained" heat, but what does that mean?  Ha, for me it means NOT 55 with drizzle... 

But, it's still a significantly warmer run over all and indicative of a pattern trying to change - which I believe should the more important take away.  Therein, ...we don't fairly know how warm or what emerges as it's uncharted water so to speak. 

The EPS is 12z mean continues to amplify the ridge longitude and latitude as was suspected it would yesterday.  So much so that it's stranded this Euro run on a complete island in that time range, ... making its uber deep Maritime trough that extend almost to Bermuda island's latitude very suspect - there's that too..  I don't see how the GEFs 00z mean and the EPS 12z mean can co-exist...  Quite probably all just typical noise in pattern change -

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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Trying to enjoy my IpA on Deck with deep purple playing, but it's a bit chilly and mosquitoes suck

 

#pretendingtobesummer

 

 

 

 

gotta sans the elevation bro'

It's 75 down here in the Merrimack Valley so decks are dandy.  

Can't help ya with 'Squitoes though... We got helicopters down here this year - jesus in fact worse than recent years too. Not sure what's up but merely keying the front door to the house at dusk and they're brazen enough to go for knuckle juice...  And they really are huge too -

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Gorgeous final day of May, cooling through the 60's with a light breeze and no bugs. Perfection.

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34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezuz, Mammoth

mjpeg.jpeg

Ginx,  so amazing.  I think you said that totem pole is over 17 feet high.  Lots of snow in the Cascades for runoff all summer.  Will be fun to watch how much of this snow melts.  Does the summit usually become bare later in the season?  

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15 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ginx,  so amazing.  I think you said that totem pole is over 17 feet high.  Lots of snow in the Cascades for runoff all summer.  Will be fun to watch how much of this snow melts.  Does the summit usually become bare later in the season?  

The summit is usually bare by late July. I skied there June 6-9, 2006.

Me on 6/9/06

Meatthesummit.jpg

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Not sure how it is in Stowe, But looks rather bare still here in the lakes region above 2500 to near 3k. At 2k, the oaks on Red Hill have that very immature look to leaf out.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure how it is in Stowe, But looks rather bare still here in the lakes region above 2500 to near 3k. At 2k, the oaks on Red Hill have that very immature look to leaf out.

Per webcams it's bare obove 3'500 at Killington, similar situation at Sugarloaf.

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Our pool is friggin freezing. I have not put in the thermometer but figure upper 50s

 

I had mine open during the warm sunny days. 70 when I went in last week. Couple of wet cloudy days down to 68. 

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2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The summit is usually bare by late July. I skied there June 6-9, 2007.

Me on 6/9/07

Meatthesummit.jpg

Awesome pic and great comparison to my pic. They have had 718 inches at the summit, 07 they had 222

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11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm.. not really the right read but okay -

well correction: you mean "sustained" heat, but what does that mean?  Ha, for me it means NOT 55 with drizzle... 

For me sustained heat means like week long run of 80s or higher now that we are in June.  You didn't want people to make sarcastic comments about June being warmer than May right?

It wont be 55F and drizzle forever, so we assume it will get warmer heading to June...heat relative to climate norms.  "Hot" or "heat" would be indicative of a sustained above normal climo pattern, which that particular Euro run did not show.  

It will likely change but that run was what was commented on. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

For me sustained heat means like week long run of 80s or higher now that we are in June.  You didn't want people to make sarcastic comments about June being warmer than May right?

It wont be 55F and drizzle forever, so we assume it will get warmer heading to June...heat relative to climate norms.  "Hot" or "heat" would be indicative of a sustained above normal climo pattern, which that particular Euro run did not show.  

It will likely change but that run was what was commented on. 

Install on July 4th, Uninstall on August 15th?

For me this cooler weather is beneficial because of my work. Would love to use the pool, etc. but from now until the middle of the month, I will gladly take 73/49.

that smoke is really noticeable this morning to my north 

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure how it is in Stowe, But looks rather bare still here in the lakes region above 2500 to near 3k. At 2k, the oaks on Red Hill have that very immature look to leaf out.

Out of town but web cam looks like what you see.  

The black line is roughly 2,200ft as I know the elevation of those trail intersections.  Looks still pretty bare above 2,500ft.  The Spruce forest starts around 3,500ft.

The building lower left is 1,550ft Mtn Operations Center.  

IMG_3393.PNG.1d88beeb7d3aa6d08114c6d21f92943d.PNG

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Never expect storms to last to the coastline, the water is too cold still, in the mid-50s and with southwest winds or south winds, the ocean is still not ideal.  We have to wait until mid June at the earliest, but our severe season is after Independence Day, through Labor Day.  Can't wait for the Bruins game three tonight.

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TD2 forming, severe threats, temps soaring through the 70s to low 80s...victory

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Slight risk for western areas now..

Yeah, looks decent out your way.

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Warming signals continue on modeling mid- longer term . The wet cool siege is ending 

Bro. It’s june frickin 1st.

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23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Didn't we just post all that information   :) 

In any case, ...I wonder if NWS MOS' machinery takes into consideration the albedo of smoke in the atmosphere.  There's probably some threshold where absorption vs reflection ...where it's ability to impeded solar insolation effects day-time heating, one would think -

John, I was thinking the same thing yesterday.  Smoke at mid levels was so dense mid day that it looked like the sky was obscured by fairly thick cirrus.  No bright sun.  Right now the sky is overcast with clouds but looking at Sattelite there is a lot of smoke west and north of us.  Perhaps this will temper high temperatures and even convective changes in the near term.  Seems early for big wildfire season.  US west got lots of rain and I would have thought the ground would have still been moist in Alberta to supress wildfires but what do I know?

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