June 2019 Discussion

[dendrite]

Euro with -2C 850s here Tue morning. I hope we don't decouple.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting choice of words for your context here...

There cultural vernacular I've ever been exposed to ... "ole fashioned summer" always meant more in the way of torridity.  That's the typical trope in literature and lore ... and nostalgic memory.  

interesting...  

 

 

Growing up, summers were a mixed bucket of sort. You had hot and dry stretches turning the grass brown by July 4th and others were a bit more stormy with hot and cooler stretches....but rarely do I recall so much persistent humidity and rain like last year. To me, it was anomalous and not a typical summer. I don’t see that happening again this season or for many to come. 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Growing up, summers were a mixed bucket of sort. You had hot and dry stretches turning the grass brown by July 4th and others were a bit more stormy with hot and cooler stretches....but rarely do I recall so much persistent humidity and rain like last year. To me, it was anomalous and not a typical summer. I don’t see that happening again this season or for many to come. 

Exactly last summer  was horrible...high dews and heat.. I think we'll  have a few warm days.. but also think this summer that will stay west of us..

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like no real heat in sight.

Yup, just as was mentioned yesterday after the Euro run.  

Sustained heat looks a ways off.  

Late next week though could pop a couple real nice days on the 12z GFS with 70s/80s.   

[moneypitmike]

22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm.. not really the right read but okay -

well correction: you mean "sustained" heat, but what does that mean?  Ha, for me it means NOT 55 with drizzle... 

But, it's still a significantly warmer run over all and indicative of a pattern trying to change - which I believe should the more important take away.  Therein, ...we don't fairly know how warm or what emerges as it's uncharted water so to speak. 

The EPS is 12z mean continues to amplify the ridge longitude and latitude as was suspected it would yesterday.  So much so that it's stranded this Euro run on a complete island in that time range, ... making its uber deep Maritime trough that extend almost to Bermuda island's latitude very suspect - there's that too..  I don't see how the GEFs 00z mean and the EPS 12z mean can co-exist...  Quite probably all just typical noise in pattern change -

Pretty sizeable miss on the progged 79* high.  Managed 73.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pretty sizeable miss on the progged 79* high.  Managed 73.

actually busted too cold here... 

It's been an iffy weekend with the smoke contamination ... we've had some insolation stolen -

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

A warm June is toast for most, awt

Second half could be toasty

[Dr. Dews]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Second half could be toasty

Yeah, I think it'll be a seasonable month, but not a well above scorcher. Probably -.5 to .5

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Growing up, summers were a mixed bucket of sort. You had hot and dry stretches turning the grass brown by July 4th and others were a bit more stormy with hot and cooler stretches....but rarely do I recall so much persistent humidity and rain like last year. To me, it was anomalous and not a typical summer. I don’t see that happening again this season or for many to come. 

Global warming predictions ... from refereed/peer reviewal sources and machines based- environmental problem solving/modeling would not agree with that assessment ...at all. 

One could certainly flip a coin any given season at hand, as there are less than perennial, intra-seasonal factors ... that can/will at times offset, but scaling the equations, the longer termed solution thermodynamically instructs higher theta-e content will take place in any gaseous medium *aka* the atmosphere, that is thermaldynamically preconditioned to store heat.  

These are basic thermal dynamics concepts/laws in play. 

Thus, observing increasing ambient atmosphere water vapor follows logically.  however,... before even relying upon those research sources - might wanna rethink that line of sight   

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Pretty sizeable miss on the progged 79* high.  Managed 73.

Looks like it was a chilly morning back home too.  

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Yeah, I think it'll be a seasonable month, but not a well above scorcher. Probably -.5 to .5

This may not be a bad assessment based upon the trend since the year 2000 ...

Of that ~ 239 months... > 50 % have registered cooler mean temperatures all over southeast Canada and adjust NE U.S., compared to the rest of the globe's on-going back ground warming curve. 

Therefore, if trend/persistence can be used as any proxy ( which does of course carry some risk ...) odds would seem to favor we'll find a way to do the same this particular June.  If one is trying/bucking for a cooler result, it's not a bad place to start having most of your months seemingly pre-ordained to be less than whatever it is going on all around you

[Dr. Dews]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This may not be a bad assessment based upon the trend since the year 2000 ...

Of that ~ 239 months... > 50 % have registered cooler mean temperatures all over southeast Canada and adjust NE U.S., compared to the rest of the globe's on-going back ground warming curve. 

Therefore, if trend/persistence can be used as any proxy ( which does of course carry some risk ...) odds would seem to favor we'll find a way to do the same this particular June.  If one is trying/bucking for a cooler result, it's not a bad place to start having most of your months seemingly pre-ordained to be less than whatever it is going on all around you

Good point

[dendrite]

We’ve really upped the dews/moisture here since 2000. Lots of extremely wet years and warm temps biased on the warm min side. It’s been tough to get cool, dry airmasses in the heart of summer here since 2007...mostly just the occasional u40 min here and there for CNE. If we go cold it’s due to a shitty wedge with drizzle and 60-65° garbage and not a cP airmass with 68/40 type air with NW winds like we used to be able to pull off. Maybe it’s just a random freak streak of excessive annual moisture, but I do feel like this is the new norm barring some kind of Pinatubo or Tambora eruption. The more we melt the ice caps and permafrost in the arctic the more those polar airmasses will be modified before reaching us. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Pretty sizeable miss on the progged 79* high.  Managed 73.

The smoke killed the high temps though pike south was better 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Day trip to Enfield today for a birthday party.  Was close to 90 out there.  Beautiful mid 70s here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Day trip to Enfield today for a birthday party.  Was close to 90 out there.  Beautiful mid 70s here.

90?? Lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

90?? Lol

Yep, was like 87-88 on my car thermo.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yep, was like 87-88 on my car thermo.

I’m not sure BDL got above 81 lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not sure BDL got above 81 lol

 Could have been UHI, as I was driving thru Springfield at the time

[CTValleySnowMan]

It was about 80-82 on Most PWS around Enfield but downtown Springfield was possibly a bit warmer. Definitely a nice warm day.  

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Global warming predictions ... from refereed/peer reviewal sources and machines based- environmental problem solving/modeling would not agree with that assessment ...at all. 

One could certainly flip a coin any given season at hand, as there are less than perennial, intra-seasonal factors ... that can/will at times offset, but scaling the equations, the longer termed solution thermodynamically instructs higher theta-e content will take place in any gaseous medium *aka* the atmosphere, that is thermaldynamically preconditioned to store heat.  

These are basic thermal dynamics concepts/laws in play. 

Thus, observing increasing ambient atmosphere water vapor follows logically.  however,... before even relying upon those research sources - might wanna rethink that line of sight   

Meh.

[Lava Rock]

Still snow in frenchville

.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

We’ve really upped the dews/moisture here since 2000. Lots of extremely wet years and warm temps biased on the warm min side. It’s been tough to get cool, dry airmasses in the heart of summer here since 2007...mostly just the occasional u40 min here and there for CNE. If we go cold it’s due to a shitty wedge with drizzle and 60-65° garbage and not a cP airmass with 68/40 type air with NW winds like we used to be able to pull off. Maybe it’s just a random freak streak of excessive annual moisture, but I do feel like this is the new norm barring some kind of Pinatubo or Tambora eruption. The more we melt the ice caps and permafrost in the arctic the more those polar airmasses will be modified before reaching us. 

August 2013

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

It was about 80-82 on Most PWS around Enfield but downtown Springfield was possibly a bit warmer. Definitely a nice warm day.  

81.7 here  warm day for once 

[NorEastermass128]

I think we got to 57 today. Pea soup fog most of the day too. We summer on the coast. 

[Dr. Dews]

The hyperfocus on cold and snow (even if man-made) is dedication. Lol

[Dr. Dews]

Accatt hanging in. ;(

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

August 2013

A couple of decent shots, but it wasn’t a very cold month. Generally about -1F across CNE/SNE.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

A couple of decent shots, but it wasn’t a very cold month. Generally about -1F across CNE/SNE.

July 2016 was decently low dews I think.  

We had 12 days of mins at or below 50F.

2013 was nice but yeah your overall point is right, it wants to be humid more often than not.  I don't have the historical perspective on summer weather though to really know what happened besides past ten years.

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

July 2016 was decently low dews I think.  

We had 12 days of mins at or below 50F.

2013 was nice but yeah your overall point is right, it wants to be humid more often than not.  I don't have the historical perspective on summer weather though to really know what happened besides past ten years.

August 13 was COC city