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June 2019 Discussion

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Well hell... complete reversal in the NAO domain handling via the GFS' operational/ overnight.

Not sure I buy it, though. For one, it's ensemble mean went the other direction - both the CDC and CPC have the NAO even more positive day's four through twelve-ish.  Operational must be a complete outlier if those agency numbers are correct.

Over decades in this business, pattern changes can do this at times in individual ensemble members - in this case ... the operational version.  Suddenly, regression stonewalls the change like an obdurate Trump supporter.  

The Euro operational actually broke a bit toward what I was mentioning yesterday ... a bit less troughing intrusion backing/carving S/SW out of the D7/8 Maritime gyre, as well... somewhat less ridging over the Lakes while doing so...  Basically, just a less amped variation in both features.  No wonder really ... replacing an extended range illustration with something closer to climate isn't a bad recourse, no.  The EPS mean has meanwhile morphed into a more progressive period of time overall from D6-10 so...

Either way... the pattern is still slated to change, despite the GFS. Who knows exactly what that will be, but it should be warmer in general.  Maybe it'll be a temperate form, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cfropas...  Gotta say, personal druthers?  That's an outstanding improvement.  Anything is better than ruining outdoor time with 25 out of 37 days of clouds and measurable.  Again, a misery that's sort of underscored in how the actual 'in bucket' amounts are not even that anomalous.  We're like regionally less than 2" above normal since January... No, this has been a target face smack spring. 

 

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So hard to decide what the snow depth is at this point of the season, but NWS went with 9" for the Mt Mansfield COOP, which seems about right.  From over 10 feet to this in June...

Heres the photo from this morning a coworker sent me.  9" seems fair.  

June 13, 1965 was latest 1" reading.  Mean last 1" depth is May 24th.  Record for June 2nd is an astonishing 46" in 1997.

IMG_3416.PNG.2b3aee2eb545c97f4fbf3f6a92be5d2c.PNG

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I thought the GFS and EC met somewhere in the middle in the next 6-10 days. That would put us right on the line of serenity vs shit. I don't like to see that H85 thermal gradient cutting/backing in right over us because usually the surface gradient is south of that. I'm still on the ups and downs train through mid month, but warmer than we have been...not necessarily due to just climo either. I think it's a warmer version of what we've been in.

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yeah... despite the GFS, I suspect the same.  warmer in general.  I like the EPS for now, oscillatory between seasonal warmth/thunder truncated by seasonal cool fronts. 

 

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dreadful day so far. 58.7F OVC

Wow, that sucks.   We have been partly cloudy and 72F

Got 3/4 of the vegetable garden planted and now taking a liquid lunch break with a Troegs "Field Study"  IPA. 

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19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, that sucks.   We have been partly cloudy and 72F

Got 3/4 of the vegetable garden planted and now taking a liquid lunch break with a Troegs "Field Study"  IPA. 

59/54

Should get some late clearing, but it feels like fall with the breeze. 

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Beautiful day here.  Low to mid 70s around Boston and metro west.   Logan rotting in the low 60s...ugh.  Thankfully I’m at 73.

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46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice summery , muggy day today with sun and dew now up to  63. Very sweaty out here on soccer fields . No coc k around today 

If you lifted weights to gain muscle you wouldn’t sweat during a coc 75/63 day. 

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20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Beautiful day here.  Low to mid 70s around Boston and metro west.   Logan rotting in the low 60s...ugh.  Thankfully I’m at 73.

Just a solid spring day to either get some yardwork done or spend time with the fam on the deck grilling food watching the kids and dogs play on a nice freshly cut lush lawn.

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If you're on the N-E side of this diffused warm front... you're miserable.   If you're on the S-W side, you're in early summer conditions.

Those are your two "support group" discussion perspectives...

I'm at 79/64 here with coherently different 'smell' to the air, indicative of having succeeded said boundary. 

image.png.0fdf989c2f9b6da083471ccc3356d407.pngThis is two hours ago... judging by sat/Davis' obs in the area...it's probably meandered up near MHT or so just guessing...

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26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just a solid spring day to either get some yardwork done or spend time with the fam on the deck grilling food watching the kids and dogs play on a nice freshly cut lush lawn.

The high humidity didn't force you indoors?

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

If you're on the N-E side of this diffused warm front... you're miserable.   If you're on the S-W side, you're in early summer conditions.

Those are your two "support group" discussion perspectives...

I'm at 79/64 here with coherently different 'smell' to the air, indicative of having succeeded said boundary. 

image.png.0fdf989c2f9b6da083471ccc3356d407.pngThis is two hours ago... judging by sat/Davis' obs in the area...it's probably meandered up near MHT or so just guessing...

That gif pretty much sums it up.

A8EB2F66-0A09-438B-9E2B-CBA6228813A6.jpeg

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Storms are here...a few rumbles, but we never warm sectored. CON 70F and MHT 74F.

59.1° and +TSRA

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8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Down to 55F off a torchy 59F. Fog rolling back in. 

Rain when everyone is snowing.  Dank when everyone is basking.  Glad we don’t live there....

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Rain when everyone is snowing.  Dank when everyone is basking.  Glad we don’t live there....

Pellet stove going. And it’s near 80 and summer in Tippy land. 

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16 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Pellet stove going. And it’s near 80 and summer in Tippy land. 

Pretty nice everywhere more than 2-3 miles inland.

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