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George BM

May Discobs 2019

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23 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here comes another miss- I can already see the central Calvert split on radar. Another day of running the sprinkler.

It’s certainly looked healthy at about 5:30 this morning. Quickly fell apart shortly after. 

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.43 inches here. 

 

Looks like Cape May and the Mouth of the Delaware Bay being blasted yet again.  

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Does it get better than this? Absolutely love this weather. Only thing would be if dews were close to that 75 degree mark but we are on our way!!

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5 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

It is gross out! 

 

5 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Does it get better than this? Absolutely love this weather. Only thing would be if dews were close to that 75 degree mark but we are on our way!!

I'll 2nd Mrs J on this

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Appears that June starts cooler with continued oppurtunities for rainfall. 

Also of note, this is somewhat a repeating pattern the last few years, with early June having cooler periods, after very warm Mays.

Also of note the recent long duration -SOI

SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 29 May, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days -6.77
Average SOI for last 90 days -5.28
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.34

 

From Mount Holly focus the weekend and beyond: 

In addition, we will need to keep an eye on southern stream energy over
the weekend, with some potential for cyclogenesis near the
Carolinas. Should that occur, it is possible moisture from that
system could become involved in our weather. Finally, we will also
have to watch the position of the upper low itself. Should it wobble
far enough south, the cool air aloft would favor additional
instability showers early next week, though the overall trend should
be drier with time. So all in all, while it is difficult to time out
individual features, the trends should be cooler weather than we`ve
seen, and continued opportunities for occasional showers and storms,
though perhaps more in the way of dry weather by early next week.

Also notice huge jump in QFP

 

p168i.gif?1559129804

 

 

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Well it's gonna be a hot one for me.  HVAC shut down at work yesterday so they sent us off at 3 PM and we are closed today.  Then my house AC went out and they're coming tomorrow evening.  I'd LOVE to get a thunderstorm this afternoon to cool the roof off, but ol' Germantown is starting to get back to form missing all recent storms; only 0.5 since May 13.  

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2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Well it's gonna be a hot one for me.  HVAC shut down at work yesterday so they sent us off at 3 PM and we are closed today.  Then my house AC went out and they're coming tomorrow evening.  I'd LOVE to get a thunderstorm this afternoon to cool the roof off, but ol' Germantown is starting to get back to form missing all recent storms; only 0.5 since May 13.  

Bummer. I think you'll get something today.

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Surprising to see the 30 day and the 90 day SOI values going back down, today the SOI was negative again. 

This part of a post I brought over from the NYC forum, from @donsutherland1  - always a good read from him, but here I focus on the ENSO and the SOI part of his update......  I agree that early to mid June holds promise for more normal temps. 

Certainly early next week looks much cooler at this time.  

From Don :

<<<<

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

>>>

I checked out https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/  this morning  

daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.79

 

 

 image.png.09c1794cfb5fb3da44b6515eaa4e24ee.png

 

 

 

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Guidance showing highs 65 - 70 Monday with possible  lows  in the 40s in  spots . I'll take a couple days like that for sure . Plenty of heat and humidity to go around . 

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Guidance showing highs 65 - 70 Monday with possible  lows  in the 40s in  spots . I'll take a couple days like that for sure . Plenty of heat and humidity to go around . 

Yep. Looks awesome for early June.  Great hiking weather and anything outdoors. 

Meanwhile the SOI is really tanking.  

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -18.37

image.png.43ebc08d53800ec28b9d82726eef7094.png

 

 

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8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Man it feels a lot warmer than 82/59.  Maybe I'm just getting old

Lowww dews lol. Not bad in my book . Latest 3k has northern areas dipping into the 60s by 9 or 10 pm... that will be perfect for car cruising tonight.  East coast street rod nationals are this weekend in York,Pa. Always a fun time 

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