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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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4 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

people didn’t think a hurricane was coming in 1938 either......

as I said eerily similar 

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. 

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes of a bush rabble .  

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

Come on John, we can be more sincere than that.  We know what he means.  This is after all a tropical weather subtopic.

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53 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

98L looking eerie to 1938 LI Express 

I didn't realize we had a cat 5 Cape Verde storm sitting off the Bahamas. Tell me more.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. 

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

If you want to be complacent and not see the warning signs that’s on you.  I’m getting my family prepared.

Sandy was really rough on us and just after the storm we had 6-8 inches of snow.  It was like Armageddon 

 

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14 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

If you want to be complacent and not see the warning signs that’s on you.  I’m getting my family prepared.

Sandy was really rough on us and just after the storm we had 6-8 inches of snow.  It was like Armageddon 

 

It’s not similar. I shouldn’t have to go into details why. 

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33 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Remember nobody does tropical like the SNE.

jma_mslpaNorm_us_9.png

i was sniffing this one out before the models were.

i live on the coast and I’m getting supplies.  if it takes the least likely path and missed us I at least have rations for 99l after this 

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28 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

i was sniffing this one out before the models were.

i live on the coast and I’m getting supplies.  if it takes the least likely path and missed us I at least have rations for 99l after this 

:lol: 

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1 hour ago, SandySurvivor said:

i was sniffing this one out before the models were.

i live on the coast and I’m getting supplies.  if it takes the least likely path and missed us I at least have rations for 99l after this 

If you live on the coast then you should ALREADY have supplies because there is always a chance!....But,  yes it is always good to have an emergency kit ready.

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SandySurvivor -

If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period....

That said, at this time this is no threat to you.  NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous.  Nothing.  

This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency.  Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint:  THERE ARE NONE. 

It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included...  that tells us there are no signs.  Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise...  by all means, enlighten us.  Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. 

That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME.

Am I gettin' thru.  Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. 

 

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Hubris can lead you into dire situations including not being prepared and driving a 8 billion population into a hothouse extinction. Nothing is set in stone in regards to this storm. People thought we would be flying around in cars at this point back in the 60s and 70s.

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16 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Hubris can lead you into dire situations including not being prepared and driving a 8 billion population into a hothouse extinction. Nothing is set in stone in regards to this storm. People thought we would be flying around in cars at this point back in the 60s and 70s.

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about?

The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938.   There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm...  Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics -

Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway...

The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck"  ...  and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay...  I can dig it :)  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about?

The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938.   There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm...  Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics -

Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway...

The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck"  ...  and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay...  I can dig it :)  

 

 

18z GFS is more less what he's looking for synoptically but there's simply nothing there. I don't believe it. This needs to establish a core soon or it's going to become a significant concern for many.

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3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Come on John, we can be more sincere than that.  We know what he means.  This is after all a tropical weather subtopic.

NO... I don't think we do haha

But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season...  When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NO... I don't think we do haha

But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season...  When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season.  Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing.  I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world.  Not again.

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You should always have a plan living on the EC. That’s a given. But as john said, even if the gfs is right...:I don’t see something where a significant tropical system will cause widespread issues that some here are worried about. 

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season.  Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing.  I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world.  Not again.

Seriously?  Not having power for a day was the worst feeling in the world?

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SandySurvivor -

If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period....

That said, at this time this is no threat to you.  NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous.  Nothing.  

This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency.  Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint:  THERE ARE NONE. 

It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included...  that tells us there are no signs.  Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise...  by all means, enlighten us.  Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. 

That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME.

Am I gettin' thru.  Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. 

 

JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area

 

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Maybe, I personally hope not, I want to watch my Patriots play their games this season.  Anyways, power being out is not a good or fun thing.  I just lost power on July 23rd from the EF-1 tornado, and we didn't have it for a day, just a day, and it was the worst feeling in the world.  Not again.

Wait until we get a mega CME. Goodbye grid for a long long time.

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16 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

JMA is a significant hit for parts of the area

 

Ok, but we wait for the CRAS for confirmation before we really freak out.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Ok, but we wait for the CRAS for confirmation before we really freak out.

Yeah. What’s the Australian have?

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