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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

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TOR warning for Madison Co., IL, near Edwardsville and moving NE away from the city and the SIUE campus. 

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5 minutes ago, Calderon said:

TOR warning for Madison Co., IL, near Edwardsville and moving NE away from the city and the SIUE campus. 

It had quite the reflectivity presentation on a previous scan:

Screenshot_20190430-160548_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.52000407f9dc717f1e3453a2d2f62895.jpg

Despite that look it didn't have any significant CC drop to my untrained eye and the velocities weren't too impressive. The warning isn't radar confirmed

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The circulation is strong but pretty broad, looks more like the RFD undercut it and there is some interference with cells merging in from the south. 

Thankfully that area is pretty rural and mostly open farmland with only widely scattered homes. 

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Sheltered in hotel stairwell around 8pm here in Springfield, Mo - wasn’t paying attention as I was busy with a work dinner and heard the outside sirens. heard eas activation on hotel lobby tv, used pds wording. Not sure if that’s used on all warnings these days, or if it was a rare pds warning. Quite a few confirmed tog’s with confirmed damage according to local media - Rogersville, Mo, Willard, Mo, Republic, Mo. I’m not up to speed on the dynamics of this system, but looks to present a continued night time threat moving toward St. Louis and into southern Illinois.

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Large part of the subforum under a marginal risk today. 

 

 ...Ohio Valley/central Appalachians...
   Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, offering
   sporadic wind damage, with isolated severe (50+ kt) gusts and
   marginally severe hail possible.  A narrow corridor of favorable
   return-flow moisture should advect northeastward through the warm
   sector just ahead of the front, with surface dew points in the mid
   50s to low 60s F.  This will offset modest midlevel lapse rates to
   yield a field of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE for a few hours this
   afternoon, with surface-based effective-inflow parcels at least
   briefly possible as far northeast as western NY.  Low-level and
   deep-tropospheric speed shear should be favorable, though the
   prefrontal flow will be nearly unidirectional in vertical profile.

 

 

day1otlk_1300.gif

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Talking about rain, flooding, and below avg temps is getting a bit exhausting. Here's some severe bits to nibble on...

Day 4 (Wednesday): Main show appears to be out in "classic" tornado alley but a good chunk of MO is included. Wouldn't be surprised to see some action spill into southern IL as well late in the day. 

Day 5 (Thursday): Long area from Cleveland, OH all the way down to Waco, TX. Really not sure about how the subforum fairs for this one. I'm not TOO impressed but its something. Plenty of shear, but moisture and heating potentially lacking due to questionable warm sector advancement amongst other things. Same old story. Could see southern parts of the region (ie: central/southern IN, southern OH, northern KY, etc) having some fun as those areas always seem to do really well on the 50/50 days like this. 

G

Screen Shot 2019-05-05 at 5.18.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-05-05 at 5.18.48 PM.png

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CIPS analogs are showing some decent events.  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F084&rundt=2019050512&map=thbPPF

This is the near perfect forecast graphic set.

Wednesday and Thursday have some potential but, as always, is highly dependent on what happens with the dying MCS's.  

So far this year, our region has had numerous conditional events.  Meaning, the forecast has been low confidence because of ongoing rain and clouds.

The two tornado events were poorly forecast.  One tornado event did not have a watch and was in the general thunderstorm forecast zone.

Our last tornado event was on May 2nd.  That was under-forecast, as well.

It will be interesting to see if we can pull off a region-wide event this week.  Most of the events have been localized, thus far.

 

 

2019-05-05_17-38-02.png

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On 5/5/2019 at 5:26 PM, geddyweather said:

Talking about rain, flooding, and below avg temps is getting a bit exhausting. Here's some severe bits to nibble on...

Day 4 (Wednesday): Main show appears to be out in "classic" tornado alley but a good chunk of MO is included. Wouldn't be surprised to see some action spill into southern IL as well late in the day. 

Day 5 (Thursday): Long area from Cleveland, OH all the way down to Waco, TX. Really not sure about how the subforum fairs for this one. I'm not TOO impressed but its something. Plenty of shear, but moisture and heating potentially lacking due to questionable warm sector advancement amongst other things. Same old story. Could see southern parts of the region (ie: central/southern IN, southern OH, northern KY, etc) having some fun as those areas always seem to do really well on the 50/50 days like this. 

G

Screen Shot 2019-05-05 at 5.18.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-05-05 at 5.18.48 PM.png

lol looks like we’ll have to continue talking about it because this threat went poof.  Maybe by the end of the season with this crap pattern we’ll get to page three in this thread.:axe:

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3 hours ago, NTXYankee said:

lol looks like we’ll have to continue talking about it because this threat went poof.  Maybe by the end of the season with this crap pattern we’ll get to page three in this thread.:axe:

I personally don't understand the point of putting out a risk map more than three days out. This is, what, the third or fourth time something like this has happened? 

In any event, with a somewhat cool and dry pattern shaping up for much of the subforum, it may be a while before a more substantial threat emerges! 

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2 hours ago, WxMatt21 said:

I personally don't understand the point of putting out a risk map more than three days out. This is, what, the third or fourth time something like this has happened? 

In any event, with a somewhat cool and dry pattern shaping up for much of the subforum, it may be a while before a more substantial threat emerges! 

Yeahhhhh, I knew this was gonna happen too. I just needed something else to talk about honestly. I get putting out Day 4-8 maps as kind of a zonal “heads-up” about an upcoming pattern favorable for severe but I definitely do not think they should be heralded as gospel. If I had a dollar for every D4-8 that got subdued on D3, I could be out chasing in West Texas today. :lol:

I am surprised, however, there’s isnt more talk about potential on the warm front in Illinois tomorrow. Granted it’s very conditional still, but there could be some decent action out there if things line up right. 

G

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56 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Could be multiple chances for severe weather later this week

That could happen, and  the ERTAF crew thinks that May 19 to 25 will be prime from the Plains eastward to IL/IN/ western Ohio.  "The synoptic scale will be supportive of a regime analogous to historical significant tornadoes in May."

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Climatology leans toward late May as getting toward our last chances to get a significant event in the Lower OH valley (South IN/South IL/West KY) tornado wise, minus maybe the early June of '90 outbreak. May 30, 2004 and May 25, 2011 are the last major late May events I can remember but correct me if wrong please, and both coincidentally were High risks. Still plenty of wind events through June and July on average but with the main jet energy shifting north toward the northern plains and upper midwest, thats usually about all we tend to get in those months. We have had setup after setup this season that was very favorable on a large scale for some big things, but instability and mesoscale issues have constantly dampened them to a conditional threat that never materializes. This upcoming pattern looks like our best shot so far this spring at something big, and IMO climatologically late May is getting toward our last bit of tornado season down this way. 

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00z GFS looking very volatile looks like a decent shot for some severe in this subforum especially beginning and middle of next week. Very much looking forward to some good storms and warmth in the future!

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Starting to grab Reed Timmers attention as well. He tweeted about this setup last night. Multiple days for severe possible.

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12z Euro appears to show an MCS develop Thursday evening across N IL/S WI dropping southeast through IN/OH. SPC mentioned in the 4-8 day outlook that a slight risk might be needed for this potential.

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New day 2 is out and the marginal was expanded in both directions from the previous day 3 as seen in Kokomo's post above.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1210 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2019  
 
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z  

 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A NARROW  
CORRIDOR ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN OHIO...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA,  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING WITH HAIL OR WIND ARE MOST LIKELY. ISOLATED STRONG  
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING  
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE  
FOUR CORNERS STATES ON THURSDAY WITH STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND  
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS, ALONG WITH SUBTLE CYCLONIC  
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE OVER THE  
PLAINS TO WEAKEN. AT THE SURFACE, GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST  
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE REMAINDER OF  
THE MIDWEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 60S F  
DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH, WITH THE MOST  
ROBUST MOISTURE ACROSS TX. INCREASING LIFT ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO  
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY, AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND  
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,  
INCLUDING A FEW SEVERE STORMS.  
   
..IA...NORTHERN IL AND IN...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHWEST OH
 
 
MODELS INDICATE EARLY STORMS ACROSS WI AHEAD OF A FRONT, AND ON THE  
NOSE OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION WITH A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL  
JET. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL OR WIND AS THEY CONTINUE  
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE OH RIVER  
BEFORE DISSIPATING. LATER IN THE DAY AND AROUND 00Z, NEW STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS IA, NORTHERN IL/IN AND WESTERN OH, WHERE A WESTERLY  
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN WARM ADVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG  
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IA/IL/IN, SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF  
STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  
   

   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 2% - MARGINAL  
WIND: 5% - MARGINAL  
HAIL: 5% - MARGINAL  
 
..JEWELL.. 05/15/2019  

 

swody2_categorical.png

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New day 2 introduces a large but narrow slight risk area.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2019  
 
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OHIO  
VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA THROUGH NORTHERN  
IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S., A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES, AND A  
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CONTINUE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE  
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NE BY 12Z THURSDAY. NORTHERN PORTION  
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING  
THE DAY, WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION MAY MOVE MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH NE. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
 
 
MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WI AND  
COULD POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND AND HAIL. THIS  
COMPLICATES FORECAST TO SOME DEGREE SINCE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN  
WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OR DISSIPATE. IN  
EITHER CASE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS  
THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD EXPANDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THESE  
PROCESSES AND DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF  
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE) DEVELOPING  
EASTWARD WITH TIME.ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY REMNANT  
MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS OR POSSIBLY  
FARTHER UPSTREAM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM  
SOUTHERN WI INTO EASTERN IA AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST.  
SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT  
WILL RESULT IN 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME  
SUPERCELLS, BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LINES AND  
CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DAMAGING  
WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT A COUPLE OF  
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
 
 
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY INTO CENTRAL  
NE, WHILE A DRYLINE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST NE  
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW  
60S WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-3000 J/KG  
MLCAPE. FORCING ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE,  
AND THE ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,  
STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING ALONG THE  
DRYLINE AND NEAR THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. OTHER STORMS  
MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIME FROM NORTHWEST NE INTO EASTERN WY.  
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES  
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS, BUT ISOLATED  
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS ARE BACKED  
IN FRONTAL ZONE. OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF  
THE FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 5% - SLIGHT  
WIND: 15% - SLIGHT  
HAIL: 15% - SLIGHT  
 
..DIAL.. 05/15/2019  

 

swody2_categorical.png

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If we can get some storms going a little earlier in the day around late afternoon a decent threat could set up in parts of IL, S Wisconsin and NW Indiana. 18z Nam showing modest convection but nothing major yet.

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Kinda shocked no one is talking about this.  While the most likely scenario is nothing popping until after dark near the WI/IL border, and probably second most likely is an MCS just chugging through the target area ruining everything, there could very well be a few storms popping in/near the prime warm sector in NC/NE IL, possibly due to a leftover boundary from overnight.  I'll probably head out to chase this one given the juicy hodographs and CAPE I'm seeing on every model 

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Expecting the storms to get into #NWOhioWx late tomorrow night, and into the overnight.

18z 3km Simulated Radar Valid 06z Friday.JPG

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HRRR looking rather volatile across northern/northeastern IL late tomorrow afternoon and evening with even the possibility of a tornado.  Will have to see what SPC thinks for the day one update and watch how things progress on Thursday.  This of course is dependent upon no MCS crashing the environment earlier in the day.  This evening's NAM is also rather interesting for the same time period.

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19 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

HRRR looking rather volatile across northern/northeastern IL late tomorrow afternoon and evening with even the possibility of a tornado.  Will have to see what SPC thinks for the day one update and watch how things progress on Thursday.  This of course is dependent upon no MCS crashing the environment earlier in the day.  This evening's NAM is also rather interesting for the same time period.

Definitely some potential but will have a better sense of it in the morning.

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13 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

HRRR looking rather volatile across northern/northeastern IL late tomorrow afternoon and evening with even the possibility of a tornado.  Will have to see what SPC thinks for the day one update and watch how things progress on Thursday.  This of course is dependent upon no MCS crashing the environment earlier in the day.

00Z HRRR took a rather ominous turn continuing the threat into central IN.  Has some support from the 00Z HRW circus as well as the RAP.  This pattern over the next 48 hours seems a little strange to me for May.  Almost a quasi August ridge riding pattern with a cold front kicking in behind.  Lucy and Charlie? lol

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Will have to watch the behavior of the late morning MCS tomorrow. Truly has the potential to make/break the setup. On one hand, an OFB given off by MCS could serve as a focus for initiation tomorrow afternoon. On another, it could just plow through and overturn the entire warm sector. Honestly, I'm thinking the latter is the more likely of the two. Primarily because of how late the MCS is progged to come through the target area(~17-19z). This inherently brings a whole host of problems and concerns typically associated with the passage of an MCS. If this thing doesn't weaken like it's expected to, cloud debris and an overturned warm sector are serious issues. Heck, even if this thing *does* weaken as forecasted, could still have remnant cloud cover and subsequent hinderance of destabilization. If you can't tell, I'm highly skeptical of the potential here. If the MCS passes favorably(like they always do, right??), maybe we have an event, but prior experience with these sorts of setups is screaming to me that this MCS won't weaken as quickly as expected and that it persists into NW IN before it becomes detached from MUCAPE gradient and weakens. Even if MCS fails to weaken, south and west portions of the warm sector should be alright, but initiation is super questionable over there.

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New day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0105 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2019  
 
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS REGION EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST REGION. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA THROUGH NORTHERN  
IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON, ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH AND VICINITY,  
AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER CYCLONES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA  
WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST, A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW  
FIELD IS PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL  
MANIFEST AS A RESULT OF A TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD, IMPINGING UPON STOUT UPPER RIDGING  
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND  
ACQUIRES NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- PEAKING  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- IS PROGGED.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT TO BECOME  
ORIENTED IN AN INCREASINGLY WEST-TO-EAST MANNER ACROSS THE MID  
MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI  
VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...  
SEVERAL EPISODES OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE WEST-TO-EAST  
SLIGHT RISK AREA -- BEGINNING WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION  
WHICH SHOULD BE CROSSING THE WISCONSIN/IOWA AREA EARLY IN THE  
PERIOD. AS THE REMNANT CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT --  
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
STORMS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP, AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH A BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA, STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD  
-- ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH  
LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING,  
POSSIBLY REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE.  
 
MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST, ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE  
WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN WYOMING VICINITY, IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME JUST  
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW -- WITHIN THE AXIS  
OF THE RIDGE -- SHOULD PROVE TO BE A BIT WEAK, VEERING FLOW WITH  
HEIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY  
SEVERE STORMS, AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING  
THE EVENING, WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH  
OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS  
OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL, GIVEN  
THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE OVERNIGHT STORMS.  
   

   
 
   
 
 
..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 05/16/2019

 

swody1_categorical.png

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