Southern stream

Impressive, SE MS rapidly becoming active.

Agree! I would honestly say throwing out predicted numbers and intensities is altogether, irresponsible. Just the fact that alot of this event will occur in the evening/overnight makes it a very dangerous situation.

Although this is no promise of active weather, definitely a step in the right direction.

With all of the historic flooding around here, many of us need a break for the next several days so no complaints here. Height anomalies look encouraging toward mid March. More of a typical trough west/ridge east scenario. Jet pattern really amplifies around that timeframe.

PAH and LMK will more than likely up areas to warning headlines by morning, based on the 0z runs a good (maybe even conservative) 6-10"+ swath looking probable considering the ratios we will be dealing with in an arctic airmass. Hopefully you peeps up to my north/northwest can get in on the action too.

Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago.

Slight risk has been added for Wednesday. Looks to me like mainly a Damaging wind threat. Haven't looked in detail at soundings this morning. The NAM last night (at that point the outlier) was showing a decent LL veering, but the rest of the column was pretty well unidirectional. Hence I think even with that solution, the main tor threat would be brief spinups along a line. Atleast in my immediate area, models are generally in good agreement, bringing a complex through mid/late evening.

Biggest question for central OK was if we could get CI and could it be maintained. That appears to be the case as of this moment with every shower going up already trying to take on the kidney bean shape.

Showers S of OKC. appear to be persisting and slightly growing. Cant believe we are seeing initiation happening so far south.

Cell NW of Wichita Falls appears to be holding it's own, seeing increase in lightning. Edit: Now SVR warned

You can only hope people will take today seriously. Having an event like Monday happening not even 2 days ago really worries me that some are going to play this off like it's nothing still being complacent from Mon underperforming.

Possible but Ive seen days like this not have a PDS. Even if there isn't, still potential for significant tornadoes today.

Exactly! I've been pretty cautious of the HRRR since, but as Quincy just stated flooding is gonna be a major problem again with training Sups. I cant remember seeing such a water logged pattern in the Plains. SE ridge is keeping us out of the main storm threat in KY though, a little bummed.

Upgrade at next update wouldn't be a huge surprise based on the environment and notion that there is agreement on convection developing in the region, next outlook will be interesting.

Not to the level of Monday. But you dont have to have a historically high end environment to do big things. It only takes a very small subtle change to affect things on the large scale when it comes to an outbreak, and Monday was a very good example.