Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,449
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    wagsphoto
    Newest Member
    wagsphoto
    Joined
snowlover2

2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

Recommended Posts

This thread is for discussion of weaker non thread worthy severe threat and medium range potential events. Speaking of which. SPC just recently added an enhanced area for large hail for SE MO and SW IL. Slight risk area surrounds that up to S IL.

day1otlk_1630.gif

day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
528 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
  NORTHWESTERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  NORTHWESTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 527 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CADET, MOVING   
  EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...WASHINGTON COUNTY 911 RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A   
           CONFIRMED TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  BONNE TERRE AROUND 545 PM CDT.  
  BLOOMSDALE AND ROCKY RIDGE AROUND 615 PM CDT.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MOC186-187-242315-  
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190324T2315Z/  
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-  
559 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN STE. GENEVIEVE AND NORTH CENTRAL ST. FRANCOIS  
COUNTIES...  
          
AT 556 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONNE TERRE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...LOCAL MEDIA AND COUNTY FIRE PERSONNEL CONTINUE TO REPORT A   
         FUNNEL CLOUD SOUTHWEST OF FESTUS. TRAINED SPOTTERS ALSO   
         REPORT GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM.   
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  BLOOMSDALE AND ROCKY RIDGE AROUND 615 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FRENCH  
VILLAGE.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if this cell about to cross the MS river into IL south of St. Louis is following some sort of quasi warm front where winds are somewhat backed.  Helicity is rather low but shear is good.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
610 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 609 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER BLOOMSDALE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND MEDIA REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH   
           THIS STORM. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORT NEAR   
           FRENCH VILLAGE.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  STE. GENEVIEVE AROUND 630 PM CDT.  
  ST. MARY AROUND 640 PM CDT.  
  CHESTER AROUND 645 PM CDT.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still quite far out, but the ensemble guidance is honing in on a the potential for a large longwave trough moving into the Central US in the middle of next week and it would certainly have severe potential, possibly into the reaches of this sub-forum. There have been some pretty nutty operational runs the last couple of days for that timeframe, and the CFS chiclets also have had a signal for the 4/16-4/19 period for awhile now. Fits with a -AAM tendency over the next week and a ridge amplification N of Hawaii.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/9/2019 at 9:39 PM, andyhb said:

Still quite far out, but the ensemble guidance is honing in on a the potential for a large longwave trough moving into the Central US in the middle of next week and it would certainly have severe potential, possibly into the reaches of this sub-forum. There have been some pretty nutty operational runs the last couple of days for that timeframe, and the CFS chiclets also have had a signal for the 4/16-4/19 period for awhile now. Fits with a -AAM tendency over the next week and a ridge amplification N of Hawaii.

ILN keeps talking about the system this Sunday too as potentially watching the track given the further north and west track on Euro and other models latching on to this solution as well.  Haven’t paid much attention to it since SPC doesn’t have anything this far north but possibly something to watch as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's 0z NAM and ECMWF are trying to bring mid-60s dewpoints into Ohio for Sunday, though the NAM shows some VBV issues (I don't have access to ECMWF upper-level winds).  SPC has a broad ENH risk from GA/AL all the way up to southern Ohio (just south of KCMH).  The NAM and ECMWF bring this warm sector further north than the ENH risk, up to at least Mansfield or so (around the north end of the Slight risk or so), and ECMWF gets 60-degree dewpoints as far north as Cleveland.  Would expect to see the ENH moved north (to include Dayton and especially Columbus) if NAM and/or ECMWF verify.

SPC says damaging winds are the primary threat, though they predict tornadoes will be possible near and west of the Appalachians.  I'm slightly skeptical with the VBV issues (and with the GFS being less aggressive into the OH/KY/WV area), but we'll see what happens.  This would be with the same system responsible for tomorrow's severe in east Texas and LA/AR (and that is where the bulk of the tornado threat with this system will likely be).

The 6z NAM run is a little less aggressive in the Ohio area I would say, with slightly lower dewpoints and lower temperatures, and less EHI present.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Need to start paying attention to Sunday in the Upper Ohio Valley. Incredible soundings for the region coming off the 00z NAM/NAM 3 km and both of them have a string of supercells/bow echoes in the area.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Columbus, OH now included in the Enhanced region for the latest Day 2 outlook.

Will be interesting to see if the initial convention will clear away fast ff9f4d7b9e548ce2bb5fbd52ac5636fa.gifenough for substantial destabilization in the afternoon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Appears to be a severe threat middle of next week for most along and south of I-80.  SPC has a day 5 and 6 slight risk outlined for those areas.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Already took Wednesday off to facilitate chase possibilities that afternoon due to potential being shown into parts of the upper Midwest (unfortunately my range will still be limited since I couldn't also get Thursday off and work starts at 3AM). Still, if the setup tanks you can blame me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, juliacarolecat said:

Columbus, OH now included in the Enhanced region for the latest Day 2 outlook.

Will be interesting to see if the initial convention will clear away fast ff9f4d7b9e548ce2bb5fbd52ac5636fa.gifenough for substantial destabilization in the afternoon.

Definitely noticed a few models potentially showing a tornado threat for southeastern Ohio (today's 09z RAP, the last few NAM3K runs), and perhaps into central Ohio (especially in the last few NAM runs) as well, that is if some isolated storms can get going.  These models show some high EHI values in these areas (and the 12z NAM3K extends high EHI into western PA as well).  GFS is much more bearish though.

Would like to see some more model consistency, but over the last day or so the models suggesting a potential tornado threat do seem to have reduced the amount of forecasted VBV in the Upper Ohio Valley region.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting enough that the HRRR has shifted the low track further west in Indiana now, is a bit more intense, and shows a line of supercells forming in Indiana and moving into a more unstable Ohio during peak heating.  Will be interested to see if this is a trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting enough that the HRRR has shifted the low track further west in Indiana now, is a bit more intense, and shows a line of supercells forming in Indiana and moving into a more unstable Ohio during peak heating.  Will be interested to see if this is a trend.


I’ve thought about chasing but SE Ohio has to easily be the worst terrain in the state for it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 


I’ve thought about chasing but SE Ohio has to easily be the worst terrain in the state for it

 

Well if the low is further west then, western and central Ohio should be in play.  But yes too hilly out that way

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day.  Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake.  In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster.  It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe.  Question is just how much of it.  Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity.  Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift.  Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day.  Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake.  In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster.  It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe.  Question is just how much of it.  Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity.  Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift.  Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.  

You were right

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/21/2019 at 9:46 AM, cyclone77 said:

Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day.  Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake.  In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster.  It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe.  Question is just how much of it.  Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity.  Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift.  Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.  

Yea, they were behind the ball on that one.

Actually looks standard slight risk worthy as of now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd add a 15% hail risk and probably drop the 2% tor. Low-mid 50s dews are the best that can be found today, coupled with mid-upper 70s? That just ain't gon' work. Steep mid level lapse rates between 7.0-7.5 would suggest potential for marginally severe hail with stronger storms though.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DVN had a nice low level meso spin up along the QLCS just west of the office. Looks like it gusted out and probably gave the office a nice peak wind.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two EF-1 tornadoes confirmed in Jennings County IN by the NWS on April 25 despite no prior thoughts of svr wx impacting the area.  Goes to show how quickly things can change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×