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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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We really are looking pretty good down to I-66(ish).  Good sunshine, decent dews, decent shear, good mid and low level lapse rates. 

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28 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like it will be a red box too

they have it purple because they aren't sure yet as of the MD whether it will be red/blue. Even the text just says "watch likely" with 95% chance. yesterday they clearly said tornado watch likely. 

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Blue box for West Virginia until 7:00 pm.  I'd imagine we can't be far behind.

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1630 SPC probs and risk areas pretty much remained same... 30 wind and 30 hail for N VA into PA including DC/BALT metro areas... only real change was the 5% TOR was moved north slightly from N VA into N MD

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

they have it purple because they aren't sure yet as of the MD whether it will be red/blue. Even the text just says "watch likely" with 95% chance. yesterday they clearly said tornado watch likely. 

Thank you for the clarification regarding the color :)

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Just now, yoda said:

Thank you for the clarification regarding the color :)

you're welcome! 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Multiple stations now showing 90 degrees. 

DCA and BWI...just need IAD for the trifecta.  Looks like some CU popping so the cap must be breaking.  Hope it holds until the storm get closer from the west.

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91 at KWWD ... T-Storm probabilities upped to 70%. I am pumped. It's very rare to get back to back severe wx days locally. 3 days if you count yesterday.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

DCA and BWI...just need IAD for the trifecta.  Looks like some CU popping so the cap must be breaking.  Hope it holds until the storm get closer from the west.

Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally. 

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new thunderstorm watch out for the Pitt area -- any watches issued for us, or PA, will be blue. That's my call. 

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Blue box went up for Ohio into W PA and stopped there... maybe a red box for central and eastern PA in a lil bit?  Just guessing as only PBZ counties are in the watch... no CTP counties

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally. 

I believe Eskimo Joe posted earlier that 12z IAD RAOB had convT of 89 degrees... so that's probably why the cap is breaking 

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you can see how the blue box later will fit in nicely across eastern WV,  northern VA, and MD         SPC forecasters refer to this process as "boxology"  

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

So much CAPE available for that one - temps were triple digits ahead of that. Tons and tons of fuel for it. Didn't that have an EML as well? 

Correct on all accounts.  The 00z IAD sounding prior to the 2012 derecho had an 850 temp of +24.  the science officer at LWX did a quick analysis and found that 850 temps only occurred 6 times beforehand.  

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12 minutes ago, mappy said:

new thunderstorm watch out for the Pitt area -- any watches issued for us, or PA, will be blue. That's my call. 

well shit. blue box for us at least... maybe. ill shut up now

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Just now, mappy said:

well shit. blue box for us at least... maybe. ill shut up now

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

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Just now, high risk said:

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

well maybe in that maybe we will see one? who knows -- i didn't think conditions were that great for tornadoes in PA, but alas, here we are. I could drive to a tornado watch lol

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Just now, high risk said:

       hahaha.     There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.

Would tend to agree with you.  The SFC - 3km heliticty values are far more impressive north of Mason-Dixon down into the upper Delaware Bay region.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR absolutely sucks for us :lol:

Looks like we play dodge the storms on that run. 

It would be peak DC to be in an ENH and miss everything.

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