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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Shocked that meso covers so far into Maryland. Includes Howard County entirely. 

SLGT risk includes all of C and N MD on the 1630 OTLK... so that is probably why

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$20 says they red box to the Potomac River.  We are PRIMED if something can fire on its own down here.

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

$20 says they red box to the Potomac River.  We are PRIMED if something can fire on its own down here.

Oh snap. 

 

ETA: I'd feel pretty good about my storm odds today if I was in Lancaster/Millersville this PM. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Upstream sounding from PIT...BOOM!

 

Do you know if LWX is doing one?  Or since they are barely out of SLGT they will not do one? 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Do you know if LWX is doing one?  Or since they are barely out of SLGT they will not do one? 

Doubt it.  They usually tweet about it, haven't seen anything on their social media.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

So what happens when EJ is in and Kmlwx is out? The @WxWatcher007 is broken now. 

I'm in for a big cell or two and that's it, but if you get under one good luck.  Going to be a few happy campers and many people left out.

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

So what happens when EJ is out and Kmlwx is in? The @WxWatcher007 is broken now. 

Appears you have made a good call about tomorrow... entire LWX CWA included in SLGT risk in 1730 SPC OTLK... ENH risk for all of S PA and all of MD and N VA and DC

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Just now, yoda said:

Appears you have made a good call about tomorrow... entire LWX CWA included in SLGT risk in 1730 SPC OTLK... ENH risk for all of S PA and all of MD and N VA and DC

I'm in for now.  Going to wait until late tomorrow morning before going all in or not.

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Just now, yoda said:

Appears you have made a good call about tomorrow... entire LWX CWA included in SLGT risk in 1730 SPC OTLK... ENH risk for all of S PA and all of MD and N VA and DC

Even Thursday is looking decent on recent sim reflectivity. But I think tomorrow might be the main show. Lots of ENH this year so far. This year has been fun so far...loved the Saturday storms in Columbia. 

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Woah... 1730 SPC discussion is :o

...Ohio Valley through the Middle Atlantic region...

   South of the stationary front, the atmosphere across much of the OH
   Valley into the Middle Atlantic will once again become moderately
   unstable with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Some storms may be
   ongoing over portions of the warm sector, posing at least a marginal
   threat for damaging wind and hail. As the boundary layer
   destabilizes, storms will increase in intensity during the day. Much
   of this region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies with
   40-50 kt unidirectional bulk shear supportive or organized storm
   structures including supercells and bowing segments. Damaging wind
   and large hail will be the main threats as storms spread east
   through the warm sector during the day. While a few tornadoes will
   be possible, especially with discrete supercell structures, the
   unidirectional nature of the low-level wind profiles will limit size
   of 0-1 km hodographs and a more widespread tornado threat.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm in for now.  Going to wait until late tomorrow morning before going all in or not.

I think at the very least storms should be more widespread than today. Intensity TBD...but it still looks like enough fuel and shear will be around. Nice stretch we've had for parts of the area. Wish I had been at my apartment for the Columbia TOR. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Woah... 1730 SPC discussion is :o

 

Seems fairly standard - I guess the comment at the end is unusual - but they are saying they don't think we will achieve that given the unidirectional wind. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Woah... 1730 SPC discussion is :o

 

Yea it's nice.  We'll have a kicked plus the airmass.

Quote
 ...Ohio Valley through the Middle Atlantic region...

   South of the stationary front, the atmosphere across much of the OH
   Valley into the Middle Atlantic will once again become moderately
   unstable with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Some storms may be
   ongoing over portions of the warm sector, posing at least a marginal
   threat for damaging wind and hail. As the boundary layer
   destabilizes, storms will increase in intensity during the day. Much
   of this region will reside within belt of moderate westerlies with
   40-50 kt unidirectional bulk shear supportive or organized storm
   structures including supercells and bowing segments. Damaging wind
   and large hail will be the main threats as storms spread east
   through the warm sector during the day. While a few tornadoes will
   be possible, especially with discrete supercell structures, the
   unidirectional nature of the low-level wind profiles will limit size
   of 0-1 km hodographs and a more widespread tornado threat.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     30% SIG - Enhanced
   Hail:     30%     - Enhanced

   ..Dial.. 05/28/2019

 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I am squarely between those 2 locations and don't feel good about it at all, lol

You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it's nice.  We'll have a kicked plus the airmass.

 

Wonder if the usual spots (around Potomac etc) where winds sometimes get a little more backed due to local factors could enhance a tor threat. 

Either that or perhaps some factor that could back the winds a bit more isn't being seen yet. Nonetheless, I like the sounds of a day 2 ENH with decent discussion wording. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

You accept paypal?  :lol:

IF (a big IF) something gets toward the M/D line, I could see LWX adding a few counties to the watch later this evening... or is it SPC that does that?

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a 50/20 watch to our north

lol doubt we see much today

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y'all need to adopt the "don't expect sh*t, be happy when it surprises" mentality.

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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm in for a big cell or two and that's it, but if you get under one good luck.  Going to be a few happy campers and many people left out.

that's almost always the case with thunderstorms here, unless we're dealing with a ramped up cold front or derecho.

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