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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

y'all need to adopt the "don't expect sh*t, be happy when it surprises" mentality.

That's not fun though. I want to expect nothing and still be disappointed.

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I feel bad for those 3 counties in PA not included in the TW.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

I feel bad for those 3 counties in PA not included in the TW.

why? being under a watch doesn't dictate that you will, or will not see, some type of weather. 

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Just now, mappy said:

why? being under a watch doesn't dictate that you will, or will not see, some type of weather. 

I was kidding

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I'm late to the party, but kmlwx and I are back in synch.     I'm out for today but very much in for tomorrow.     I agree with SPC that the low-level winds are progged to be a bit too crappy (and the boundary will be a bit too hot) for tornadoes, but supercells and line segments are a good bet.

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Just now, high risk said:

I'm late to the party, but kmlwx and I are back in synch.     I'm out for today but very much in for tomorrow.     I agree with SPC that the low-level winds are progged to be a bit too crappy (and the boundary will be a bit too hot) for tornadoes, but supercells and line segments are a good bet.

If tomorrow is a big show, will that lessen the chances of another big show on Thursday? (worried about an outdoor event Thursday evening) Never a good sign when one day's forecasted high is 93 and the next day is 82. :)

 

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

I'm late to the party, but kmlwx and I are back in synch.     I'm out for today but very much in for tomorrow.     I agree with SPC that the low-level winds are progged to be a bit too crappy (and the boundary will be a bit too hot) for tornadoes, but supercells and line segments are a good bet.

GFS might be running too humid at spots. I saw a small blob up near FDK for tomorrow where the GFS was progging like 6K SBCAPE. I looked at the sounding and it has a 76 dewpoint in the area. Doubt it would be that high. 

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In regards to what you were saying @mappy about watches ....

I had several Bradford pear trees I had went down a couple years ago, in a storm that did not have even have a warning, quick moving discrete cell, estimated winds of over 70 mph.   

In 30 years only a few watches for my area yielded a severe event. But, I understand and appreciate the reasoning with watches, and it is always best to be prepared. We are talking life,  loved ones and property here.

Kudos the the NWS and the SPC for what they do. 

 

 

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One thing is for sure, this area isn't like the midwest.  They can recharge and have day after day of sups and TORS.  We blow it today and get too much then tomorrow is boned.  lol

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7 minutes ago, jacindc said:

If tomorrow is a big show, will that lessen the chances of another big show on Thursday? (worried about an outdoor event Thursday evening) Never a good sign when one day's forecasted high is 93 and the next day is 82. :)

 

  FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday.    The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).

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Just now, high risk said:

  FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday.    The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).

Yea tomorrow is probably our best shot for anything organized this week.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

  FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday.    The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).

Yes, sorry, I had meant that the big change in temps I was seeing is Thursday to Friday. I'll go back into my corner and cross my fingers until then. Thanks.

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

In regards to what you were saying @mappy about watches ....

I had several Bradford pear trees I had went down a couple years ago, in a storm that did not have even have a warning, quick moving discrete cell, estimated winds of over 70 mph.   

In 30 years only a few watches for my area yielded a severe event. But, I understand and appreciate the reasoning with watches, and it is always best to be prepared. We are talking life,  loved ones and property here.

Kudos the the NWS and the SPC for what they do. 

a small gust of wind will break a bradford pear branch lol they break so easily

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Also worth nothing the HRRR continues to have essentially NOTHING south of the M/D line for today. (17z run). I'm completely out for today unless you're in mappyville - and even then probably out. 

we ain't seeing anything today man. put your eggs into tomorrows basket

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16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The cells north of PIT are going to town already. Quick hail markers on them. Should be a fun day in most of PA

Yea that thing went bonkers.  It's a sick looking hail signature.  

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Tornado Watch..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Extreme east central Ohio Pennsylvania The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey as the low levels destabilize. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

So what happens when EJ is in and Kmlwx is out? The @WxWatcher007 scale is broken now. 

 

57 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

IIRC it defaults down to the lowest person who is out. So we are currently under a code Yoda.

Winner winner. The system still works, though I may need an update if Ian/Ellinwood never come back lol.

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Winner winner. The system still works, though I may need an update if Ian/Ellinwood never come back lol.

I think you move High Risk into a box of his own into the Ian/Ellinwood slot. He would be the most like them that consistently post.

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you don't often see potential for baseball size hail in this part of the country... this warning's got TOR potential included in it as well.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC005-019-031-121-281945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0071.190528T1854Z-190528T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
254 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Venango County in northwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Clarion County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 253 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest
  of Sugarcreek, or 9 miles southwest of Franklin, moving southeast
  at 35 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...Destructive, baseball-size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Knox...                           Parker...
  Sligo...                          Emlenton...
  Clintonville...                   St. Petersburg...
  Eau Claire...                     Kennerdell...
  Callensburg...                    Foxburg...
  Cherry Valley...                  Cranberry Township...

This includes  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 34
and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Tornadoes can develop unexpectedly from severe thunderstorms. If a
tornado is reported, move to a basement or small, central room in a
sturdy structure.

Large hail has been reported! Seek shelter indoors immediately and
stay away from windows!

This storm has a history of producing damaging wind gusts. Move
indoors immediately and stay away from windows!

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for northwestern
and west central Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4130 7948 4111 7947 4103 7957 4124 7997
      4129 8000 4133 8000 4135 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 301DEG 31KT 4130 7996

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$
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10 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

I think you move High Risk into a box of his own into the Ian/Ellinwood slot. He would be the most like them that consistently post.

           Thanks, but I'm more easily impressed than they are.    B)

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59 minutes ago, SENC said:

Tornado Watch..

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Extreme east central Ohio Pennsylvania The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread generally eastward through this evening. The storm environment will be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A more favorable environment for tornadoes is expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey as the low levels destabilize. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Welcome to the forum. You're a legend for riding out Florence when it was progged to be a Cat 5 and you live on the beach.

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North of Baltimore, and northeastward through Philadelphia to central NJ could have quite a rough evening. Storm mode looks to stay discrete as storms continue to move east southeast towards the areas of best parameters as the day/evening progresses. Tomorrow could be quite a rough day in our area. 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

You're closer to the forcing and multiple models carry some sort of cells or complex through your area. SEPA has a little mini tornado allery IIRC. 

I seem to remember seeing one tornado-incidence recurrence map that had a lollipop of enhanced frequency to the north of the Bay, taking in places like York and Lancaster, maybe extending south of the M/D line, but not as far as the DC metro (may have glanced the Baltimore metro to the north and east). But that map didn't have any similar lollipop over, say, La Plata, so take it for what it's worth. Maybe the map predated 2002. 

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