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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

 

we ain't seeing anything today man. put your eggs into tomorrows basket

I think there's a thunder shower over your yard now :) 

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You rarely see this many discrete cells anywhere in the Northeast or mid Atlantic.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

How long until Yoda asks if a moderate is possible tomorrow ;) (or me)

Refreshing the 18z NAM soundings ;)

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

How long until Yoda asks if a moderate is possible tomorrow ;) (or me)

          I don't see tomorrow as a MDT risk day here.    Comparing the supercell parade in PA today, 

                     1)  The overall strength of the wind field in the column will be weaker here tomorrow

                     2)   The low-level shear won't be nearly as strong

                     3)   We are going to be much hotter tomorrow than in PA today, meaning that any supercells will gust out and lead to upscale growth.   I just don't think we'll have a fully discrete mode.

                 There will be SVR around, but the ENH covers the threat pretty well.

     

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z NAM NEST looks interesting... sups at 20z?

         perhaps some modest supercell structure, but the low level wind profile is meh, and the 88/70 environment would cause it to quickly gust out.

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22 minutes ago, high risk said:

         perhaps some modest supercell structure, but the low level wind profile is meh, and the 88/70 environment would cause it to quickly gust out.

Dare we start saying the D word?

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Nice line  depicted on the latest 3k for this evening dropping south out of Pa .  Much improved from 12z . It weakens as it enters Md but I'm betting it's too quick and with such a soupy airmass 

Screenshot_20190528-164848_Chrome_crop_432x586.jpg

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89/78 here in the rotisserie zone. Supercell composite values are pretty decent down here, wouldn't be surprised if a nighttime/evening storm comes around

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

89/78 here in the rotisserie zone. Supercell composite values are pretty decent down here, wouldn't be surprised if a nighttime/evening storm comes around

78 dew ...dam*  that's real soupy

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

78 dew ...dam*  that's real soupy

Primed for a late evening storm. MLCAPE values are up to 2500 J/kg and the lifted indices are up to -7.. but I'm curious to see what parameters show if there's lifting, or are we just wasting the juiced atmosphere away

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice line  depicted on the latest 3k for this evening dropping south out of Pa .  Much improved from 12z . It weakens as it enters Md but I'm betting it's too quick and with such a soupy airmass 

Screenshot_20190528-164848_Chrome_crop_432x586.jpg

 

       yeah, huge discrepancy between 18z NAM3 and recent HRRR runs.

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Primed for a late evening storm. MLCAPE values are up to 2500 J/kg and the lifted indices are up to -7.. but I'm curious to see what parameters show if there's lifting, or are we just wasting the juiced atmosphere away

Pa is lit up like a Christmas tree and I for one like the radar trends for near the m/d line for later especially northern balt, Harford,Cecil

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I like the cell popping up in NE MD. Already have -60C cloud tops over a small area. NE MD PUMMELED

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Hmmm

mcd0861.gif.f1720bb9b3bb98bcd7bd661be73514b0.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0861
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Virginia into Maryland and
   Delaware

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 274...

   Valid 282134Z - 282300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe potential increasing across portions of eastern
   Maryland into Delaware and southern New Jersey, both with supercells
   approaching from the northwest in Pennsylvania, and with the
   initiation of discrete convection along the Maryland border. Large
   hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, but an
   isolated tornado is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures are in progress across
   central Pennsylvania, several with a history of severe hail and
   damaging wind gusts. These storms will continue to propagate
   southeastward into an environment characterized by moderate
   instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and adequate deep-layer shear
   (bulk effective shear values of 40-50 knots). Low-level speed and
   directional shear are adequate for supporting a continuance of
   supercell structures given the moderate buoyancy present, though the
   overall magnitudes of low-level shear suggests that large hail will
   be the main threats. A few stones may exceed 2.0 inches in diameter
   as well. Rain/hail loaded downdrafts may also induced damaging wind
   gusts. One of the stronger, more sustained supercell structures may
   also spawn a tornado or two, especially with storms farther to the
   northeast, where low-level directional shear is slightly more
   favorable for supporting sustained, low-level rotation.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

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For our DE and MD peeps who are in PHL CWA but post here

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 274
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
533 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-009-011-033-290200-
/O.EXA.KPHI.TO.A.0274.000000T0000Z-190529T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 274 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING

IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL DELAWARE

KENT

IN NORTHERN DELAWARE

NEW CASTLE

IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE

SUSSEX

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND

CAROLINE              CECIL                 KENT
QUEEN ANNE`S          TALBOT

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC              CAPE MAY              CUMBERLAND
SALEM

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ATLANTIC CITY, CENTREVILLE,
CHESTERTOWN, DENTON, DOVER, EASTON, ELKTON, GEORGETOWN,
HAMMONTON, MILLVILLE, OCEAN CITY, PENNSVILLE, AND WILMINGTON.
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Scary situation just to the north side of Scranton.  Lots of my wife’s family is there and a couplet moved just north of them.  Whew.

F7E5556C-8F2A-467E-99AB-FB7968E64B8E.png

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3 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Welcome to the forum. You're a legend for riding out Florence when it was progged to be a Cat 5 and you live on the beach.

Thank You! for  the warm Welcome!  Next 'Cat5" I'll still be "living on the Beach" to greet the next one! 

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I'm sure this has been discussed in this thread already... but this is super awesome 

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So this is cool.  You can plot the SPC outlooks over a period of time by WFO/State/County.  It gives the highest risk level for each day.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=201

A lot of neat features besides the outlooks to play with in the dropdown box, too.

 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like Hrrr finally seeing the possible remnant storms reaching northern Md in the next 1 ro 2 hours its last couple runs

Still some impressive dynamics around the Chesapeake and Delmarva area. There's still a lot of untapped energy in the areas where D.C and Balt have largely missed the action to the north. Wouldn't be surprised if we get woken up over the next few hours

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6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Still some impressive dynamics around the Chesapeake and Delmarva area. There's still a lot of untapped energy in the areas where D.C and Balt have largely missed the action to the north. Wouldn't be surprised if we get woken up over the next few hours

Neither would I.  There's another cluster of storms in western Pa sliding east southeast 

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