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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

it's a suspect setup for this area, but what's most impressive is how we can go from california weather to relatively standard mid-atlantic in less than 24 hours.

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Blue Box until 02:00 UTC for parts of the area.

EDIT:  Calvert, Charles, St. Mary's, MD & City of Fredericksburg, King George, Spotsylvania, Stafford, VA.

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8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

it's a suspect setup for this area, but what's most impressive is how we can go from california weather to relatively standard mid-atlantic in less than 24 hours.

I was going to mention California weather in my previous post but thought I might offend someone. lol  But, I think we all would rather have mid-Atlantic weather as fickle as it may be. 

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1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

I was going to mention California weather in my previous post but thought I might offend someone. lol  But, I think we all would rather have mid-Atlantic weather as fickle as it may be. 

i love summer here (minus the real brutal days), so i cosign.  that said, if i found a job in cali that paid the bills, i would not complain lol.

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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I just want rain for my garden.

radar looks pretty decent for that...actually a little better than i expected, though west to east precip is sketchy here, so we'll see how much of it survives downsloping.

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18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

radar looks pretty decent for that...actually a little better than i expected, though west to east precip is sketchy here, so we'll see how much of it survives downsloping.

It’s been pretty much dying off approaching the I-81 corridor all day. 

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New Windsor FD in Carroll County has their carnival and fireman's parade tonight at 7pm so I hope this falls apart.

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Looks like we went from possible strong storms to cloudy and boring. Looks like I've got a lot of watering to do in my garden over the next week and probably well beyond. Ugh.. my least favorite season is in full force. 

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9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like we went from possible strong storms to cloudy and boring. Looks like I've got a lot of watering to do in my garden over the next week and probably well beyond. Ugh.. my least favorite season is in full force. 

Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sundaybinto next week 

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Storms have missed me to the south but I got some nice views of cumulonimbus. Tonight seems like one of those nights where a surprise flare up of storms could happen

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sundaybinto next week 

I was just venting my frustration about not getting any rain. I did end up getting a nice little pop up heavy shower right over my garden. I hope some more stuff pops up this evening. I'd love some thunder and lightning.

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15 hours ago, yoda said:

Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sunday into next week 

Not a real flood unless we're talking 4"+

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My back yard is just now getting back to "normal" (meaning it no longer floods with a mere 1/4" rain).

 

I'd rather not go back needing a snorkel to mow.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Time period around June 11th might be our next severe threat. CIPS guidance is printing out some threat around that time based on analogs. 

                SPC is discussing a possible threat here around that time too in the Day 4-8 outlook.

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

                SPC is discussing a possible threat here around that time too in the Day 4-8 outlook.

It's not a minor signal either - for long leads the percentages on CIPS are actually halfway decent. Now we'll see if it holds. If we can avoid having SPC outlook us in a 15% on day 3 or beyond we'll be golden ;)

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Relevant text from the D4-8 outlook for those interested...

 

Quote
However, the northward return of a seasonably moist boundary layer,
   coupled with strengthening of southwesterly deep-layer wind fields
   ahead of the cold front, still may pose as least some severe
   thunderstorm potential.  This seems most probable across the lower
   Great Lakes region and upper Ohio Valley on Monday, into the
   Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast region by late Tuesday.  While
   severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent at this
   point, due to lingering uncertainties concerning synoptic, and
   especially sub-synoptic, developments, this could still change in
   outlooks closer to the "Day 1" time frame.

 

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Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

LWX from this morning 

Although more precise timing and finer scale details remain
uncertain, there is increasing confidence in a heavy rain and flood
threat early next week, and possibly again later next week.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Deb

Unless something changes we're going to be on the outside looking in on a good flood setup.  Hope I'm wrong and we get slammed.  Really miss the big floods of the early 2000s.

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Next week could be one of those setups where north of I-66 floods and south of there gets into sunshine and severe.  

I'm ready for HUrricane tracking now. I'm done staring at radar hoping for drops of rain to feed my baby grass. I'll just replant in the fall. Bring on the big storms!  

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