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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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1 minute ago, T. August said:

Maybe I’m missing something but the nam looks about the same? It jumped like 10 miles north I guess, but that’s all I see.

A lot of us live in those 10-15 miles.

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Woah gets the rain/snow line all the way to my door for a time. Yikes. I wanted more amped. Not that much more lol. 
Nam always Amps to get us excited only to go back to reality the next run

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I’ve seen overamped NAM runs bring rain the day before a very good snowstorm (Feb 2015 comes to mind). The 12z WRF NMM run shows a very similar look, with rain all the way to mappy, but I didn’t think it was worth mentioning since it was alone at the time and is effectively only one ensemble member.

If other guidance follows suit, then many of us are in trouble.

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2 minutes ago, digital snow said:

It is warm outside right now. White rain in Fairfax county tomorrow at 34

Better than black rain.  That means a volcano erupted or a tar plant exploded.  Neither are optimal.  

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ask me in 24 hours lol

Biggest March disaster since 2001. (since I didn't see Ji post it yet)  Ok, we new of last minute north trends.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:
25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
You ok?

I'm driving to tavistock farms for this event

If you dont get hit you can literally drive 8 miles west and be on top of the Blue Ridge where they will be getting hit hard.

I am 41 degrees right now with a 32 Dew. Where is the cold air?

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you dont get hit you can literally drive 8 miles west and be on top of the Blue Ridge where they will be getting hit hard.

I am 41 degrees right now with a 32 Dew. Where is the cold air?

44/35 here.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you dont get hit you can literally drive 8 miles west and be on top of the Blue Ridge where they will be getting hit hard.

I am 41 degrees right now with a 32 Dew. Where is the cold air?

Don't worry... It'll get here...... On Wednesday

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31 minutes ago, Fozz said:

A lot of us live in those 10-15 miles.

Lol man like myself. But the nam still puts down 3-4” before it inches up towards the M/D. I guess my point is, if that’s a “bad” run, we’re sitting pretty good.

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you dont get hit you can literally drive 8 miles west and be on top of the Blue Ridge where they will be getting hit hard.

I am 41 degrees right now with a 32 Dew. Where is the cold air?

Yeah thats why CWG went 3-6"  everywhere it's all snow except but the MD line.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Rain snow line on rgem sets up along a IAD to Baltimore city then northeast along 95 line. NW of there looks like a beat down on the precip type plots 

That’s good news.  The 3k would have been painful for you.  Let’s hope it’s a blip. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

That’s good news.  The 3k would have been painful for you.  Let’s hope it’s a blip. 

I was holding out hope until tomorrow, maybe a last minute south trend. 00z might be the nail in the coffin

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1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I was holding out hope until tomorrow, maybe a last minute south trend. 00z might be the nail in the coffin

Not our event my friend.  Our best winters are a bad January in New England.  I always try to remember that.  Just hoping for some snow tv tomorrow.  

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