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40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice storm about to go boom at the end of the euro. 00z suite so far was a little weenieish.

You keep beating me to the punch....knowing this season it will all fail, but there is about as exotic a potential as it gets next week.

If this were any other season, I'd be pimping that already.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You keep beating me to the punch....knowing this season it will all fail, but there is about as exotic potential as it gets nest week.

If this were any other season, I'd be pimping that already.

I'm on shift tonight...lol. This is what I meant about the looks. I know we are all snake bitten...but it really is a decent look. Best thing to do is wait and see...but the solutions shown are a result of the H5 pattern we are entering for 10-14 days or so.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm on shift tonight...lol. This is what I meant about the looks. I know we are all snake bitten...but it really is a decent look. Best thing to do is wait and see...but the solutions shown are a result of the H5 pattern we are entering for 10-14 days or so.

I didn't see that on the EPS last night...when did the ridge roll over start showing?. Will mentioned the EPO blocking rolling over today, which is why I was looking. That is about the only way we can get a PNA this season. I would have held off on that post canceling big dog potential had I seen that.....so it will probably turn into a 1978 knowing how I've done this year.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see that on the EPS last night...when did the ridge roll over start showing?. Will mentioned the EPO blocking rolling over today, which is why I was looking. That is about the only way we can get a PNA this season. I would have held off on that post canceling big dog potential had I seen that.....so it will probably turn into a 1978 knowing how I've done this year.

I think fairly recently. I noticed that too last night...but that was more for the later 6-10 day stuff. I think for this weekend, we have that weenie ridging extending WSW from Greenland and then the EPO ridge breaks or folds over. That tries to keep any phasing aspects limited, but the EPS did try to go more miller B. It sort of reignites the baroclinic zone off the SE and develops another low that scoots SE of us. 

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49 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Man the GFS is starting to agree with the 228+ hour storm the 00z EURO showed.  If only we could get a cold phasing storm track.

Wake me when things are looking good at 28 hours.  :)

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The weekend deal on Mar 1-2 is pretty complex. I still think we may need to watch the front running energy. 

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Mar 6-7 one of the best H5 setups we’ve had this season, and now 2 EC op runs in a row...
IMG_1487.PNG

EPS with a signal for both Mar1-2 and Mar6-7

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Yeah I’ve been tongue-in-cheek honking this since 12z yesterday... I’m a suite or 2 away from honking to coworkers.

For the first time in a while (ever this season?), we’re not relying on fleeting H5 acrobatics to squeeze something out of a suboptimal setup... this is big dog of yore signal. PNA finally pops and flow buckles for real as soon as the EPO fades.

You can never go all in so far out and even with a certain big dog the details will fluctuate significantly, but if this is another 10 day Lucy act this season, it’s the grandest one yet.

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Funny ... like letting the February thread scroll ... days prior to the end of the month, when there is still a system IN February to monitor... will bring on something faster...  

Anyway, I'm impressed at these huge continuity changes spanning the last three consecutive Euro operational runs re the March 1-3rd period of time. 

Three runs ago, it carried a deep Lakes cyclone spinning up seiche waves ... with but a paltry commitment to a warm frontal wave ... circa PA to the Del Marva ..

Two runs ago, it had a less cohesive low with a more obvious attempt at said secondary, but the whole circumvallate was relocated to the middel/lower Ohio Valley ... as well, the mid level mechanics spread out and a little E. 

So we get to last night's 00z rendition, and we have almost no inclusion/phasing of the N/stream, and a more southern stream low now scooting ENE of the Mid Atlantic almost too far S to really pose much impact N of PHL at all. 

This saga reminds me of that system I laughed about 10 days ago... Not sure if anyone recalls... but collectively we were busy divvying up who gets what while the system was in the process of vanishing altogether.  I mean it's not 'vanished' per se with this, but those kind of total synoptic morphology(ies) ... really should not lend well at all to any kind of determinism from that particular source.  The EPS mean may actually be better in this case, not sure... 

 

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Also, what's interesting about the Mar 1-3rd ... regardless of any one particular model... the blend of all available guidance that I've seen really hones in on the pallid western ridge at mid latitudes.  As that has collapsed back into the longer seasonal trend of being weak, the coherence for a Lakes cyclone has diminished.  

If there could be just a little more ridging below the -EPO height island ...that might induce more a subsume of the N/stream again. 

Anyway, for those looking to hold on to winter appeals at any turn, beginning with lessen the unmitigated injustice to the soul of a west turning low and liquid mist at 40 F ... it's probably a good thing that the PNA part of that may go on to be flat like presently modeled.  Crucially, the N/stream stretches as a result ... and lays out along southern Canada, ... Otherwise, Mar 1-3 probably does curled W. early.  The reason is because L/W /R layout is wrong with the trough too far west in those previous blends.  

I'm almost wondering if the whole thing is in the process of a whole scale change ... like, what if the western ridge re-materializes more over the Rockies this week, and suddenly, we're getting a different deal out of it back east.  In either case, these Euro run to run changes are hugely demonstrative and yeah...it's not < 5 day wheel-house stuff ...still, those changes spanning those three runs are impressive.  

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58 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah I’ve been tongue-in-cheek honking this since 12z yesterday... I’m a suite or 2 away from honking to coworkers.

For the first time in a while (ever this season?), we’re not relying on fleeting H5 acrobatics to squeeze something out of a suboptimal setup... this is big dog of yore signal. PNA finally pops and flow buckles for real as soon as the EPO fades.

You can never go all in so far out and even with a certain big dog the details will fluctuate significantly, but if this is another 10 day Lucy act this season, it’s the grandest one yet.

Yea, this has a legit shot...we get that ridge roll over inside of 5 days, then its time to really honk.

Of course, this showed up the day after I posted that no blockbusters are likely this year. :axe:

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this has a legit shot...we get that ridge roll over inside of 5 days, then its time to really honk.

Of course, this showed up the day after I posted that no blockbusters are likely this year. :axe:

Your Safe Ray, that H5 look I give 10-15% 

this will turn into something more zonal 

 

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47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Your Safe Ray, that H5 look I give 10-15% 

this will turn into something more zonal 

 

Probably, but this is the time of year where these stable regimes tend to break down as the wavelengths shorten and mass shifts take place. Like I said, if we get that ridge roll over inside of day 5, then it maybe time to take it seriously. 

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The difference here is/was as hinted before and this run really shows it ...  The SPV/fragmentation and N/Stream is backing down on the amount of phasing... 

I'm glad this run came out this way to help in elucidating that significance; no sooner, and we have a less capture and foisting/wild deepening of a Great Lakes cyclone.  

That said, it's far from a stable outlook ... particularly at this range duh.  But that's a very sensitive flow structure with that much awesome gyre situated precariously by over southern Canada, with it's circumvallate of very high velocity mid level flow.  if that feature stays situated there and waits to come through more vestigially like these recent trends... yeah, there could certainly be a quick mover system - talking about the Mar 1-3rd event.  

The latter one has the benefit ( perhaps ...) of the flow relaxing some. 

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