Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,390
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    scourt
    Newest Member
    scourt
    Joined
stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Patiently awaiting the ICON map to come out on TT, clearly going to be impressive based on the sim maps. 

It and the FV3 have been VERY consistent for CMD.

It’s out. 8” Baltimore

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs targeting NOVA/DC with the heavy stuff by 15z Wednesday.  Haven’t looked at soundings yet but it looks good.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a tough forecast.  Good stuff moves west to east with not very much getting up into PA before the column goes to hell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Maryland won't like this run.  ~5-7" from D.C. west (more west) and a couple inches less up towards the Mason Dixon.

We all know it won't play out that way.  Especially with a camp of models showing them getting the good stuff.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, North Balti Zen said:

It played out that way just last month.

It did, but I’m not sure there was as much in terms of modeling bullseyeing the M/D folk. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We all know it won't play out that way.  Especially with a camp of models showing them getting the good stuff.  

DC has been the sweet spot the past couple storms, so...atmospheric memory? :P (of course this Baltimorian hopes not, but if I had to bet...)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fv3 is the best solution for the most people in here.  It’s a beat down for the whole area northern VA to northern MD.  Best surge of precip early in the day.  

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This event reminds me of December 2013.  Have a warmfront shooting out bands of precip like they're photon torpedoes.  If you get under a band, it's 6-10 easily, if not then you end up with very little, so it's going to be the luck of the draw here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 is the best solution for the most people in here.  It’s a beat down for the whole area northern VA to northern MD.  Best surge of precip early in the day.  

 

So that’s RGEM, GFS and FV3 showing beat downs for DC metro?   NAM showing a nice 2-4” thump followed by heavy sleet.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Amped said:

This event reminds me of December 2013.  Have a warmfront shooting out bands of precip like they're photon torpedoes.  If you get under a band, it's 6-10 easily, if not then you end up with very little, so it's going to be the luck of the draw here.

It’s pretty similar in that the best dynamics are down by you guys at the base of the high but we are also seeing similarities up here now too in that models generated squat up here with that event beyond 72 hours and slowly produced more and more QPF as they resolved the overrunning.  I ended up with over 5 inches and according to most models 3 days out would have had nothing 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Didn’t really see it mentioned but the Canadian is quite a bit better for DC-North. Especially northern MD

Canadians (CMC, RGEM, HDRPS) seem to be the most aggressive with a widespread swath of snow and ice. I mean look at this FRZA output for Central VA. Crazy.

zr_acc.us_ma.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I over reacted to the NAM earlier. Euro came back south at 18z. Euro/Gfs/fv3/rgem/ggem/icon all target somewhere between northern VA and the PA line.  NAM is still north but often when it’s by itself is when it’s off on a tangent. 

Goalposts keep narrowing and we are still between them!  Fv3 is my favorite so far. It seems to have the most liberal thump coverage and best target trajectory to get the most in here happy.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m getting concerned about a legit ice/sleet storm down here in Central VA. Lots of guidance hitting us with hours of sleet/FRZA.

CMC has me below freezing until 06z Thursday. Good news is it’s 63 by 18z haha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×