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WxUSAF

PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats

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Just now, Ji said:

i only have 23 in a winter i was suppose to get 45. I am 22 inches below normal

You average 45"? I dont think so. 'Suppose to get' does not mean "normal".

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i wish that it was the OP model this winter. It would be alot more fun...untill it came down to the actual storm...but the fantasies would have been fun!

FV3 looks pretty close to the Nam.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

You average 45"? I dont think so. 'Suppose to get' does not mean "normal".

this was a normal that i placed in my head for a Moki Nino lol...my average is about 23 in the real world

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Just now, tplbge said:

FV3 looks pretty close to the Nam.

Nowcast for those in the edge like myself unless we get a north trend.  Coastal would be bad, I think, because the precip would colllapse toward the coastal. 

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nowcast for those in the edge like myself unless we get a north trend.  Coastal would be bad, I think, because the precip would colllapse toward the coastal. 

Yeah the fv3 looks similar to the rgem. Kind of has a northeast trajectory on the precip as it gets to the coast and precip collapses to the coast...

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Not only that, but I remember it getting all the praise then as a good model.

It did well for the 12/9 storm, too

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So the NAM, RGEM, and HRDPS all are very close to a decent event for the corridor. Getting close to being in their wheelhouse. A 50 mike shift north in the next 36hrs will make many happy. 

 

rgem_asnow_neus_54.png

namconus_asnow_neus_21.png

hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift.  We shall see.

Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time.  Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC. 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still think it comes north as we close. Not like December either when we needed a 200 mile shift.  We shall see.

I dont think it will shift north so much as the precip field will just be larger. That is what usually happens. The expanse of the precip field is under modeled.

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time.  Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC. 

It doesn't happen every time.  Bumps north are common, but not inevitable.  Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north.  It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled.  Otherwise, I would never get snow imby!

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Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event.  But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD.   Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow.  Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation.  Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow.   Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation.  Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question.  As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. 

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15 minutes ago, Danajames said:

Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event.  But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD.   Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow.  Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation.  Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow.   Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation.  Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question.  As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. 

Let me know when your posts will be changing to less awful. 

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26 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

It doesn't happen every time.  Bumps north are common, but not inevitable.  Sometimes, it is just a southern slider and the bump north from a DC stripe from 2 days ago doesn't bump north.  It gets modeled further and further south and just stays as modeled.  Otherwise, I would never get snow imby!

True, not every time but more often than not.  And as clskinsfan points out, many times its that the northern edge of precip is underdone which improves 24H out.  

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends.

Dunno if your kidding but that’s kind of what the guidance is trending towards imo. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Dunno if your kidding but that’s kind of what the guidance is trending towards imo. 

Nope not kidding. Been seeing hints of it and can clearly see how it could go that way on the latest EPS run.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see it too

So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days?  All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year.  I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby.   I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.

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1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days?  All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year.  I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby.   I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.

So we’re supposed to discuss the LR in this thread? 

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