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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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Nice to see the NAM/RGEM tick slightly colder for tomorrow. Maybe we can at least see an inch or 2 before the sleet and then the wash out

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Watch, for my area, they'll cancel schools tomorrow, they did that multiple times with the four'easters we had last much, even though three of them for me were a washout.

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38 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Nittany this I understand but right now many people are saying / posting that the mid levels are going to torch so my question is how does anyone know that right now as ( and Im sure others don't understand it either )  some of us / me still don't understand what causes that ?

Oh well this is my weenie answer in a way but I just look at the precip type maps on the models, you can see the sleet depiction

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And here's my new favorite, free graphic.  Look at the major differences in the NAM frozen/liquid ratios for EWR vs. 6Z.  12Z has 0.85" as snow/sleet, 0.14" as ZR and only 0.19" as plain rain, whereas 6Z NAM had 0.67" snow/sleet, 0.04" ZR and 0.5" plain rain.  Huge.  Interestingly, though, the 3 km NAM looks about the same at 12Z and 6Z with about half sleet/half rain for the ~1" LE.  Wish we had graphics like this for the other models...

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=nam&time=2019021112&field=pcompare.zoom

pcompare.zoom.png

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HRRR showing classic cold air damming for the region. Surface may be in the 20s with snow/sleet falling for several hours. 

Could be a nightmare of a morning commute.

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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And here's my new favorite, free graphic.  Look at the major differences in the NAM frozen/liquid ratios for EWR vs. 6Z.  12Z has 0.85" as snow/sleet, 0.14" as ZR and only 0.19" as plain rain, whereas 6Z NAM had 0.67" snow/sleet, 0.04" ZR and 0.5" plain rain.  Huge.  Interestingly, though, the 3 km NAM looks about the same at 12Z and 6Z with about half sleet/half rain for the ~1" LE.  Wish we had graphics like this for the other models...

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=nam&time=2019021112&field=pcompare.zoom

pcompare.zoom.png

Go NAM. I know some people don't want a sleetstorm but I am so sick and tired of rain all winter, want something interesting and it's least it's not much ZR 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Go NAM. I know some people don't want a sleetstorm but I am so sick and tired of rain all winter, want something interesting and it's least it's not much ZR 

I don't approve of disliking sleet.  It's just high density snow, lol.  If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me.  

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7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I don't approve of disliking sleet.  It's just high density snow, lol.  If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me.  

I’ll take it too

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8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I don't approve of disliking sleet.  It's just high density snow, lol.  If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me.  

Thoroughly agree -- especially when building a snowpack, which unfortunately isnt the case here.   

 

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Sleet normally is a 5/10 but this year’s dry spell is like adding alcohol to the judgment- gets a 4 point boost lol

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

I don't approve of disliking sleet.  It's just high density snow, lol.  If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me.  

I couldn't agree more. Give me 4-5 inches of snow and 2-3 inches of sleet on top and that's a recipe for a snow pack into March. Provided of course it's not followed by a GLC with mid 50's and two inches of rain which of course in this winter of my discontent happened  five days after the January 19 snow and ice event.

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7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I couldn't agree more. Give me 4-5 inches of snow and 2-3 inches of sleet on top and that's a recipe for a snow pack into March. Provided of course it's not followed by a GLC with mid 50's and two inches of rain which of course in this winter of my discontent happened  five days after the January 19 snow and ice event.

Come on, man. Anything less than a foot after settling isn't a "pack", it's just coverage. Don't compromise!

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17 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

He's getting closer lol

Closer to what?

Everyone is going to start as snow as the dew points are going to be low.

The question will be  when the changeover will be.

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21 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

He's getting closer lol

 

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Closer to what?

Everyone is going to start as snow as the dew points are going to be low.

The question will be  when the changeover will be.

I can only speak of my location--out on LI I expect maybe 3/4 inch of snow before the inevitable changeover occurs.  I expect tmw night to be quite rainy

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23 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps.  Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain.  It's a nothing burger

 

23 hours ago, Snowshack said:

You should let upton know, they are forecasting numbers similar to what’s being discussed here.    A couple of inches in the metro actually would be notable given what’s transpired this year.  

 

30BB0DDE-54FA-4021-AF9C-96C6C253EC25.png

 

23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This should be 3-4 inches easily.  It’s possible if models are too slow advancing the precipitation in which they very well might be given they stall it for ages across EPA and NJ that this could be similar to the November storm in amounts 

 

23 hours ago, qg_omega said:

They are wrong, look at their snow map for the MLK January storm two days before, 4 to 6 inches for a large portion of the area.  How much did we pick up?

 

23 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I'll bet under on that for NYC all day.  3 to 4 easy.... Not in this setup.  I'll bump this on Wednesday.

 

23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The setup was nowhere near as good.  High wasn’t a one piece anchored high.  It was a sprawled our high with the neck positioned too far west across Quebec so you just didn’t get the proper CAD signature.  Also the air mass wasn’t as good in place ahead of the storm

 

23 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I don't dismiss posters like SnowGoose. And in fact the major forecasters on 1010 and WNYC are talking similar numbers, either 1-3 or 2-4 coastal and 3-6 inland plus possible ZR there. May not be the world's biggest event, but likely to be more significant than a nothingburger, and will probably be a shock to the system for folks who have gotten complacent.

 

23 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This ain't the MLK storm. The high is much stronger and better placed. 

We shall see then. Also don't dismiss those just inland and away from the city.

 

23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The MLK event high position only works when a system tracks from a low latitude. That system originated too far north in the Plains and Midwest for the CAD to properly work 

 

22 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

I've never agreed more with an Upton product before, especially 2 days out. Excellent.

No changes to my forecast, Upton still going with 3 inches for NYC (this is down from yesterday but not nearly enough) and 5 inches for White Plains.  I am in White Plains and I am expecting 1-2 inches of snow then sleet/rain. 

StormTotalSnow.png

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NAM would be best case scenario. I guess a sleety solution could make sense, that high is no joke so CAD should be significant coupled with the low dewpoints. Obviously mid levels torch with a low in the lakes...  NAM is pretty much all frozen before dryslot. You get a decent amount of rain with the weak secondary passing overhead after but still it falls in the 30s into a glacier.

I don't see how NYC records less than 3"(even if it's mostly sleet) if the NAM is anywhere near correct. GFS ticked colder as well and positive depth change map is 3" as well.

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19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Closer to what?

Everyone is going to start as snow as the dew points are going to be low.

The question will be  when the changeover will be.

Probably within 2 hours of start time

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17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

with the way this winter has been 1-3”, 2-4” will feel like feet no matter if its snow or pure sleet at this point

If you remove Nov, I've had 4 dustings to date which wouldn't even equal an inch when combined. 

2" would feel like 2' this winter.

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23 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Could someone say how the Euro is looking, and/or post some graphics? 

Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then. 

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you remove Nov, I've had 4 dustings to date which wouldn't even equal an inch when combined. 

2" would feel like 2' this winter.

If you remove November, and the storms in December and January, plus anything that falls during the rest of the winter, I'll have had no snow at all. :(

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16 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then. 

Without seeing any maps that sounds like an improvement.

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