mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 GYX zones for this part of NH have gotten suddenly snowier with 2-4 overnight Wednesday. I am thinking that is just one of those blips that show up in zones from time to time. Or maybe there is a cold trend that can give us a snow sleet mix enough to get some real accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It seems like QPF will be the limiting factor here. Decent differences between the GFS and EURO but even if you take the high-end EURO, it'll still spare many the true damaging ice. Definitely the risk for isolated areas though of some damage if QPF can get greater than 0.75". Widespread advisory ice though looks like a good bet. Lots of quarter inch type stuff seems like the way to go... glistening trees. Yeah we will need qpf in that 0.80-1.00 range prior to 12z Thursday. We have had a few runs show it today but you typically want even the drier models in board with at last 0.70-0.75. You figure we can approach half an inch of accretion if we get those higher totals. Otherwise, this will probably be in the quarter inch accretion range. Temps are still not certain either. It could end up latently warming to 33 before 12z Thursday. That would also limit the impact. Still, there's def like a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 shot that it could be pretty bad. The correct way to lean right now though is lower impact in terms of power grid but still potentially dangerous driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 0Z NAM is warmer... I dont think this is a big deal at all here Quick glaze then cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 00z NAM looks colder than 18z but still warmer than the 12z run. I'm just quickly glancing at the sfc though...18z got ORH above freezing by 09z Thursday and the 00z run is still below freezing at 12z Thursday 3 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 NAM QPF is meh also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Quick glaze then cold rain. Would be fitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Weird seeing the NAM advect in colder air from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Weird seeing the NAM advect in colder air from the east. Doesn't seem to have the typical sfc AGS northerly drain... I don't know I just don't trust the models with the boundary layers east of the Berkshires/White Mountains particularly when you have higher pressure north - that never ends warm or well for warm thinking and failing that fairly obvious input I wonder if this one of those deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Cold air starting to move into NNE... we are back down into the mid-30s. Tomorrow morning's observations should help out a lot for you guys in the icing zone. Forget the mid 30s ... what's the DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 40/34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 29/15 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Forget the mid 30s ... what's the DP We'll prob want to see those dewpoints in the teens filtering into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 NAM lost 2/3rds of its QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM lost 2/3rds of its QPF shredderola ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM lost 2/3rds of its QPF Didn’t you foresee a significant drop in its qpf earlier today? Maybe not that much but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Weather prediction center isn’t impressed with regard to accretion forecasts they have a tiny box in Berkshires with a 50% shot of .25 accretion. Most everyone else .1 to .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: shredderola ? Not sure but it looks substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 RGEM is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 The QPF is def a limiting factor...the idea that this would be marginally disruptive to the powergrid (say, more than a quarter inch of accretion) is dependent on getting a nice swath of 0.5-0.75 QPF from the first wave....if it's something like 0.30-0.40 then it's not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The QPF is def a limiting factor...the idea that this would be marginally disruptive to the powergrid (say, more than a quarter inch of accretion) is dependent on getting a nice swath of 0.5-0.75 QPF from the first wave....if it's something like 0.30-0.40 then it's not gonna happen. I’m thinking more of an icy roads event than a big power loss one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking more of an icy roads event than a big power loss one Agreed...and it's always been that way. The 12z runs did raise an eyebrow though at really ramping up the QPF for the first wave...we had to see if it was a trend or a burp. Right now, based on the 18z runs and the early returns on the 00z runs, it looks like a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 36/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Figures, HREF not running yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Didn’t you foresee a significant drop in its qpf earlier today? Maybe not that much but... Oh well. Didn't put an exact number no but because mesos tend to goose QPF when they come inside to 60 hours… I think that's what it was. Euro had biggish numbers though and that threw this for a loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 39/30 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 0Z NAM is warmer... I dont think this is a big deal at all here Nope!! This is weak sauce..Next!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 It's kind of weird how cold some of the guidance is for eastern MA and RI. Like the 3km NAM is literally ZR right into Boston for several hours and it has pretty decent ZR accretion in SE MA. I'm kind of skeptical of this, but it's been showing up on various runs across more than one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's kind of weird how cold some of the guidance is for eastern MA and RI. Like the 3km NAM is literally ZR right into Boston for several hours and it has pretty decent ZR accretion in SE MA. I'm kind of skeptical of this, but it's been showing up on various runs across more than one model. I commented on that earlier. We're advecting cold into NE CT from like TAN and OWD. Very odd but it has shown up for a bit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's kind of weird how cold some of the guidance is for eastern MA and RI. Like the 3km NAM is literally ZR right into Boston for several hours and it has pretty decent ZR accretion in SE MA. I'm kind of skeptical of this, but it's been showing up on various runs across more than one model. 950-925 is coldest in ern areas for a time and it's almost like an evaporational cooling thing from the ocean. I know, it's puzzling...but they all show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's kind of weird how cold some of the guidance is for eastern MA and RI. Like the 3km NAM is literally ZR right into Boston for several hours and it has pretty decent ZR accretion in SE MA. I'm kind of skeptical of this, but it's been showing up on various runs across more than one model. Yea, I think I took the sig ice potential line down to like Attleboro to Hingham.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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