Whineminster Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Hopefully this is like 1998 but down in my area. Hopefully a tree falls on my house so i can collect insurance and put it towards a kitchen or something. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Insidious nature to this because it may yet only be 40 or so with the dp of say 31 ... but the sounding at 925 telling more the story? I'm not seeing an actual "surface" push but it just sort of flop defaults the BL into dicey cold scenario in the mean of the various guidance' - 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 925 yoo any way you could hook it up with 950 temps and wind vectors plotted? not sure if ya get that view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Too bad we don't have 950mb on the Euro...that's def been the coldest layer on the soundings. But seeing -2s there in MA shows that we're prob at least -3C and maybe -4C a bit below that layer before it warms a little bit near the surface back to 30-31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Too bad we don't have 950mb on the Euro...that's def been the coldest layer on the soundings. But seeing -2s there in MA shows that we're prob at least -3C and maybe -4C a bit below that layer before it warms a little bit near the surface back to 30-31F. Looks close to now cast east of elevated interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Qpf thru 48 is frozen as see n below. NE CT is again frozen longer than NWCT. I hate to disagree with Ryan but a drain from maine falls mainly on your pain I think it makes Ryan’s point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 925 That's a pretty classic look right there with that well of tap-able cold to feed in... right down the geographical viaduct from Maine. If the concomitant wake/meso low scooting pass Cape Cod ... tell you what, it's a higher sensitivity to so much as a 2 mb of depth could almost be in lock step with whether places like BED stay all ice or 32.3 -it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I think if I stay mostly sleet you guys will do really well down there. If my 950 cold can't overcome the layer of +4C aloft and I remain mostly ZR, it may become more of an elevated issue down there...especially once the low level cold advection wanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think if I stay mostly sleet you guys will do really well down there. If my 950 cold can't overcome the layer of +4C aloft and I remain mostly ZR, it may become more of an elevated issue down there...especially once the low level cold advection wanes. Yeah the sleet will keep the latent heat aloft and not near the surface....so the dewpoint drain will remain relatively fresh,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 When doing well is not really doing well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I guess the question is do all of us in the all /mainly ice areas do we pound down .75-1.0” qpf in 32 or below.. or does it take hours to get down under 32. That could make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: When doing well is not really doing well... Hubbjack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think if I stay mostly sleet you guys will do really well down there. If my 950 cold can't overcome the layer of +4C aloft and I remain mostly ZR, it may become more of an elevated issue down there...especially once the low level cold advection wanes. Looks like you may stay sleet, It looks like mainly snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I guess the question is do all of us in the all /mainly ice areas do we pound down .75-1.0” qpf in 32 or below.. or does it take hours to get down under 32. That could make a difference Watch temps tomorrow afternoon...how much do we warm. While wetbulbing will be fairly quick, any lag could make a difference. If the high is like 35-36F and we're already back to 32F by 00z before the precip arrives, then it's gonna be pretty icy very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like you may stay sleet, It looks like mainly snow here. NAM warm layer is pretty thick and toasty. It’s close. The GFS is mostly snow here, but I’m tossing that. I’d probably lean mostly sleet too, but we’ll see how it trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: NAM warm layer is pretty thick and toasty. It’s close. The GFS is mostly snow here, but I’m tossing that. I’d probably lean mostly sleet too, but we’ll see how it trends tonight. I was just basing that on the Euro, That was a sleet look on there for you, Meso's seem to be ticking cooler so we will see if that hols, For here, Were not working with a lot of qpf unless we get a few tics northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: I was just basing that on the Euro, That was a sleet look on there for you, Meso's seem to be ticking cooler so we will see if that hols, For here, Were not working with a lot of qpf unless we get a few tics northward. Can you see 800mb on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: NAM warm layer is pretty thick and toasty. It’s close. The GFS is mostly snow here, but I’m tossing that. I’d probably lean mostly sleet too, but we’ll see how it trends tonight. It would be nice if we had ECMWF soundings....RGEM is cold too and keeps you mostly sleet. RPM actually has you snow for a while and then sleet. I'm guessing the Euro is closer to the RGEM/RPM combo because it has the 546 thickness over Ray's fanny around 06z....while the NAM has it north of you near MWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Can you see 800mb on there? No, I cant, Only 850 and 925 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be nice if we had ECMWF soundings....RGEM is cold too and keeps you mostly sleet. RPM actually has you snow for a while and then sleet. I'm guessing the Euro is closer to the RGEM/RPM combo because it has the 546 thickness over Ray's fanny around 06z....while the NAM has it north of you near MWN. I just tend to give the NAM a little more credence with its mid-level warmth. I’m curious to see which side, if any, caves a little at 00z. Knock that warm layer to +2C to +3C and I’ll have my helmet ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 We side w Nammy If not maybe we need to be pelted upside the head with more nam ML temp victories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I just tend to give the NAM a little more credence with its mid-level warmth. I’m curious to see which side, if any, caves a little at 00z. Knock that warm layer to +2C to +3C and I’ll have my helmet ready. The warm layer could be accurate and cold layer underdone too...that is what happened in 1/20....they were getting scalped down in BDL and into N RI despite warm layers of like +6to +7. Granted, I don't think the cold layer will be that prolific this time, but you're also not going to be getting +6 or +7 warm layer either. Even the NAM sounding has well over 1000m cold layer that maxes out around -5C. That's prob sleet and that's the warmest model. I think we will need a warmer trend for mostly ZR up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The warm layer could be accurate and cold layer underdone too...that is what happened in 1/20....they were getting scalped down in BDL and into N RI despite warm layers of like +6to +7. Granted, I don't think the cold layer will be that prolific this time, but you're also not going to be getting +6 or +7 warm layer either. Even the NAM sounding has well over 1000m cold layer that maxes out around -5C. That's prob sleet and that's the warmest model. I think we will need a warmer trend for mostly ZR up there. Usually I'm one phase change colder than you guys down there. So if you're seeing good ZR chances are I'm pinging. If I'm getting good ZR it's probably 34F -RA or the icing is relegated mostly to ORH and 1kft. I had quite a bit of sleet in 08 before flipping to some solid ZR, but that system was obviously an extreme example. But yeah, it'll probably verify as mostly PL here and ZR down there. I'm just really cheering against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I think it makes Ryan’s point. ? Did you look at the Euros qpf timing and surface temps, its colder for Kev at max precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Did you look at the Euros qpf timing and surface temps, its colder for Kev at max precip It was 31-32 there. The problem is the antecedent airmass is so so. Reminds me of 08 (not saying magnitude will be that). But being further and further remove from the source region could hurt. This is nothing like 2.5 weeks ago. Sure he could get Siggy ice if we really get the dew drain, but ageo flow to me doesn’t look as impressive as past events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'm curious whether or not BOX ups their ice maps much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 18z NAM is weird...lower thicknesses than 12z run but significantly less CAD near the surface...warms ORH above freezing by 09z Thursday morning. Not sure why it does that...I notice on the isobars when toggling the two runs, the CAD looks better on 12z despite higher thicknesses. That solution verbatim wouldn't be that bad for icing...prob nasty for a few hours and then warms above freezing. But the QPF increase is notable. We'll have to keep watching that...models will tend to erode the sfc cold too fast, but if the QPF bump we're seeing is real, then this could be become a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'd rather not lose power myself... but - anyway, not that we're exactly "riding the NAM" or anything but since we've discussed it .. this 18z run is actually even more QPF loaded with central and E/Ma now approaching 1.25" suggested by the FRH data... The BL looks a tick warmer ... but it's still +1 or + 2 at Logan at the end of 48 hours with moderate fall rates ... The thermal strata is definitely water and not pellets falling ... suspect that's accreting inland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 NAM also moves this in faster.. this run just looks odd to me.. seems the surface should have been colder.. Not expecting much here but some areas north of here could get it pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Could all still go down as a 32.1er ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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