MountainGeek Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z hrrr FWIW. Apply 20:1 ratios and BOOM! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: We should. Just go out and drop anchor with a bunch of beer. Over the course of a winter look how much snow falls offshore. Happens every time we get cold and dry. Boat deck would make the perfect snow board...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 0.25 to 0.5 would be really bad because it gets compacted, water squeezed out, instant ice slick 1” is a lot less hazardous because there is some granular material remaining when run over by a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, MountainGeek said: Apply 20:1 ratios and BOOM! Yeah, you can see that when you apply the positive snow depth change on the 12k nam. Ratio's give a solid chance at an inch region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 CTP has issued advisories for counties bordering Mason-Dixon line... looks like 2-4" depending on county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Yeah, you can see that when you apply the positive snow depth change on the 12k nam. Ratio's give a solid chance at an inch region wide. 1" would be a nice win IMO -- several days of deep winter topped off by arctic powder, snow on snow for a good chunk of the forum..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12k get's snow into the corridor by 7-8am. A really tough call for schools imo...this has mini disaster written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 0.25 to 0.5 would be really bad because it gets compacted, water squeezed out, instant ice slick 1” is a lot less hazardous because there is some granular material remaining when run over by a car. Actually a dusting can be a disaster on very cold roads. That happened a few years ago during rush hour and caused a lot of accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 CTP has issued advisories for counties bordering Mason-Dixon line... looks like 2-4" depending on countyMust be out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: Must be out west. Looks like it stops at Fulton/Franklin/Adams for right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I hate to be picky about NWS products but the expected snowfall amount and the high end amount for Westminster are both 2". How can the expected and max potential be the same? I guess they are REALLY confident in their forecast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Apply 20:1 ratios and BOOM! This should be more than 10:1 ratios, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, lpaschall said: This should be more than 10:1 ratios, right? Yeah this is probably a better representation than a regular 10:1 map. 18z 12k just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate to be picky about NWS products but the expected snowfall amount and the high end amount for Westminster are both 2". How can the expected and max potential be the same? I guess they are REALLY confident in their forecast! It appears that both their expected and high amount snowfall amounts are pretty much the same. It’s not usually like that so idk if it’s an error or they haven’t updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, lpaschall said: This should be more than 10:1 ratios, right? Yup -- cold/temps are not a problem for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate to be picky about NWS products but the expected snowfall amount and the high end amount for Westminster are both 2". How can the expected and max potential be the same? I guess they are REALLY confident in their forecast! Yeah I've noticed that several times. Sometimes the expected snowfall is MORE than the top 10% high end......guessing that it's just in between update cycles when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 If I'm reading the AFD correctly, LWX is going to issue a winter weather advisory for DC/Baltimore metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Here come LWX advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 327 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 MDZ004>006-011-503-505>508-VAZ505-010430- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.190201T1100Z-190201T2000Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Western Loudoun- 327 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations around one inch, with locally higher amounts of 2 inches near the Mason-Dixon Line. The steadiest snow is expected between 7 AM and noon Friday. * WHERE...Portions of northern and central Maryland and northern Virginia, including the Baltimore metropolitan area. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute with snow covered and slippery roads, making travel difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate to be picky about NWS products but the expected snowfall amount and the high end amount for Westminster are both 2". How can the expected and max potential be the same? I guess they are REALLY confident in their forecast! They did a similar thing for a time with the storm a couple days ago. Idk, they don’t seem to be as accurate of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 just feel asleep looking at the nam3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 19 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Yup -- cold/temps are not a problem for this event. Determining ratios is more than just the temperature though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Determining ratios is more than just the temperature though. Agree -- 20:1 was intentionally weenieish.....but given the setup it it's likely a lot of us do better than 10:1 for whatever we can eke out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Looks good for an inch, or give or take a little. It will all be gone Saturday, so biggest story is timing and cold temp. Potential for a big mess for the AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Agree -- 20:1 was intentionally weenieish.....but given the setup it it's likely a lot of us do better than 10:1 for whatever we can eke out, right? Ctp mentioned 20 to 1 ratios in there afd this morning for their counties in south central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Better than nothing I suppose for DC metro and surrounding counties lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 327 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-VAZ053-054-506-010430- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.190201T1100Z-190201T2000Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 327 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow is likely. Snow accumulation less than one inch. The best chance for snow will be between 7 AM and noon Friday. * WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...With surface temperatures well below freezing Friday morning, even minor accumulations of snow could cause untreated roads to become icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Agree -- 20:1 was intentionally weenieish.....but given the setup it it's likely a lot of us do better than 10:1 for whatever we can eke out, right? I suppose but if it’s just pixie dust falling and there’s no real dendrites then we’ll get what QPF falls. Either way I don’t think anyone can really expect more than 1” from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 My favorite thing about this model's panels is how the color scale makes things look way more potent. That's 3-4mm for the district. Unfortunately, the snow ratio is very low on this model - like less than 1 to 1", due to the metric system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 18z gfs is the best yet fwiw...which still isn’t that great lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, paulythegun said: My favorite thing about this model's panels is how the color scale makes things look way more potent. That's 3-4mm for the district. Unfortunately, the snow ratio is very low on this model - like less than 1 to 1", due to the metric system Yeah that looks like a mini blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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