WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Not going to have to worry about temps! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Most of the model snow maps are 10-1 ratio so double up buttercups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 GFS maybe very slightly better? Mostly looks like noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I object to the title....it needs to have somewhere in there the fact that we snow despite the crappy pattern and it also needs to say something about over performer AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 GGEM looks crappy but RGEM pretty bullish actually. DC/MoCo bullseye of 0.1” liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM looks crappy but RGEM pretty bullish actually. DC/MoCo bullseye of 0.1” liquid. Hrdps looks pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 What is the timing for this?? And I’d it only north of DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: What is the timing for this?? And I’d it only north of DC? Roughly 9am-3pm. Trend with the meso’s has been to bring the accumulating snow (however small) further south into central md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 this is going to make for another super challenging decision for schools, as if it does snow, it will fall during the morning rush. We're obviously talking about small amounts, but even a dusting would cause road issues with these temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, high risk said: this is going to make for another super challenging decision for schools, as if it does snow, it will fall during the morning rush. We're obviously talking about small amounts, but even a dusting would cause road issues with these temps. I remember back maybe 15 years ago we had a very similar setup. We squeezed out maybe an inch but it was 19 degrees and the snow fell between 5 and 7 am. The roads were sheets of ice and none of the schools closed because the forecast was cloudy with flurries possible. Doesn’t take much qpf if u have temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Hrdps looks pretty good as well. Best yet. Huggin’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 If it’s right in the middle of the day, it shouldn’t affect schools unless it will be more than an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: If it’s right in the middle of the day, it shouldn’t affect schools unless it will be more than an inch or so. Even a quarter inch could be a disaster for the morning commute with everything sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM looks crappy but RGEM pretty bullish actually. DC/MoCo bullseye of 0.1” liquid. why are you using low resolution globals now lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'd take the 12z RGEM and HRDPS down here... nice to see another half inch to an inch depending on ratios if it can reach down here before the warm-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: If it’s right in the middle of the day, it shouldn’t affect schools unless it will be more than an inch or so. yes, but of the models that generate snow, most have it starting during the morning commute. That's the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Fv3 trended South with the stripe of snow as well. Maybe we'll get an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 All those 1032 Hs on the HoDoRPS are surrounding us and not letting the precip leave for like 8 hours. Dare I say that they "Hold the door" on the precip? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12z UKIE is decent around DCA... looks like 0.1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE is decent around DCA... looks like 0.1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Any idea on start time for this? I am hearing and seeing conflicting reports on whether it begins after midnight or around the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Hmm... that even almost puts me in the game. One more south shift would be great, although a last minute south shift is definitely not the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Any idea on start time for this? I am hearing and seeing conflicting reports on whether it begins after midnight or around the morning commute. HRRR shows 6-7AM up our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hmm... that even almost puts me in the game. One more south shift would be great, although a last minute south shift is definitely not the seasonal trend. However, we’re inside 24 hrs and it’s currently trending further and further south...instead of the seasonal trend of trending further north the final 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16z HRRR at at the end of its run has a band of light snow in N VA just south of DC... updated zone forecasts now have snow accumulations up to 1 inch for Fairfax and DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1224 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-018-503>508-VAZ052>055-501-502- 505-506-010130- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 1224 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON METRO AREAS FRIDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Friday morning commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance south of Washington D.C. up to a 70 percent chance in and north of Baltimore) Friday morning across the Baltimore / Washington metro areas. Snow may accumulate up to an inch for metro Washington D.C.. Snow may accumulate around an inch for Baltimore with 1 to 2 inches possible north of Baltimore. If this threat does materialize during the Friday morning rush- hour, many untreated roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Friday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, high risk said: yes, but of the models that generate snow, most have it starting during the morning commute. That's the point. I see. Earlier this week it was looking like it would be much later in the day. Thanks for the update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hmm... that even almost puts me in the game. One more south shift would be great, although a last minute south shift is definitely not the seasonal trend. Also hints at a little coastal redevelopment. This one has some promise. Someone could sneak out 2-3 inches with high ratios in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I really want this one even if it's just 0.1" - get me and everyone else on the board for February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Loving the south trends today. We’re a snow town.....I mean dusting town again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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