bluewave Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 4degs. AN. 8 straight daily negative SOI contributions not helping yet. The big -SOI drop is associated with the current fire hose STJ into SOCAL. So while the jet configuration is more El Niño, We are still contenting with the Niña-like -PNA. A very confused and chaotic looking Pacific. https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1095809943226191872 Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The big -SOI drop is associated with the current fire hose STJ into SOCAL. So while the jet configuration is more El Niño, We are still contenting with the Niña-like -PNA. A very confused and chaotic looking Pacific. https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1095809943226191872 Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there. Does this mean less wintry weather for us? Maybe even an early spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 It’s amazing how a body of water over 3,000 miles away can have such an affect on our weather here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Does this mean less wintry weather for us? Maybe even an early spring? Very good question about March. We often see cooler influences here for March when El Niño’s intensify from February into March. Since there are so many competing influences this year, that relationship may not hold. This is looking like the strongest WWB and possibly SOI drop of this whole event. Very rare to happen so late in the game. Be interesting to see if the El Niño tries to continue beyond this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Regarding these next 3 upcoming waves / events does anybody care to wager that the models could look night and day different today compared to yesterday never mind tomorrows runs ? Heck the model outcomes could change at noon and then back the other way at midnight--> Yes this winter has been tough but how about a lil consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12z NAM has the low trending northward the past 24 hours, and a bit stronger as well. Let's hope the northward trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 49 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Regarding these next 3 upcoming waves / events does anybody care to wager that the models could look night and day different today compared to yesterday never mind tomorrows runs ? Heck the model outcomes could change at noon and then back the other way at midnight--> Yes this winter has been tough but how about a lil consistency. So far there is no indication that any of these waves will be mostly frozen in the immediate NYC metro - the first one probably misses completely south of us and the next 2 still have a chance of cutting west of us - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, snowheavyattimes said: It’s amazing how a body of water over 3,000 miles away can have such an affect on our weather here. Pacifics bigger than all land masses on earth combined....makes sense how much it can drive the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12z ICON at F96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Amount of vertically integrated water vapor transport (a measure of #AtmosphericRiver strength) will potentially exceed all-time February records across far southern CA (mainly south of LA) Thursday morning. This is an impressive signal, and portends major flood risk there. Separate but related is the record cold season PWAT at San Diego this morning: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 The ol' southeast ridge hanging tough threatening to ruin our chances for a snowstorm here next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The ol' southeast ridge hanging tough threatening to ruin our chances for a snowstorm here next week..... It sure would be nice to see that bowling ball roll across and only gain ~250-300 miles in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Separate but related is the record cold season PWAT at San Diego this morning: That is an amazing record. CLIMATE... THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.68 INCHES FOR THE NKX SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS NOT ONLY THE THE HIGHEST EVER FOR SAN DIEGO IN FEBRUARY, BUT THE HIGHEST EVER FOR THE NOVEMBER THROUGH MAY PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR FEBRUARY WAS 1.34 INCHES ON THE 28TH IN 2006. SOUNDINGS FOR NZY/SAN/NKX GO BACK TO 1948. THE 1.68 INCHES FOR THIS MORNING IS 379 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE DATE. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 My PWS is reporting a UV Index of 6 for the first time this year. I can feel it. Today’s sun angle is equivalent to Oct 27. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, Cfa said: My PWS is reporting a UV Index of 6 for the first time this year. I can feel it. Today’s sun angle is equivalent to Oct 27. inside of cars warm too when out in the sun.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The ol' southeast ridge hanging tough threatening to ruin our chances for a snowstorm here next week..... The PNA is relentless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The PNA is relentless One would think that there would at least be a short "re-load" period where the PNA is positive for a week or so. However, latest GFS on March 2nd looks exactly the same. On well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 z top then 6 z. I really thought March would deliver 80s style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 At least CFS is losing cold March look and is warmer as of 6z. Early spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 12 z top then 6 z. I really thought March would deliver 80s style. Yep, the models continue the strong -PNA right into the first few days of March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep, the models continue the strong -PNA right into the first few days of March I can't complain as this will only be my 5th below average snowfall winter this century! Was bound to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Very good question about March. We often see cooler influences here for March when El Niño’s intensify from February into March. Since there are so many competing influences this year, that relationship may not hold. This is looking like the strongest WWB and possibly SOI drop of this whole event. Very rare to happen so late in the game. Be interesting to see if the El Niño tries to continue beyond this winter. The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 It is not the winter that is going down the drain, it is the models and the entire meteorological science taking the hit. Somehow it must be explained why the analogs did not work out, and seemed to be running independent of the OPs, or the other way around if you like. I think we are now prone, and vulnerable to a major non-predicted weather phenomenon---that goes beyond this winter. Just look at the GEFS 16-day Snow Accumulation. Never showed even a low probability of the average 3"-4.5" typical 16-day total ever happening Everyone of 75 different daily runs should have shown this. It ran up as high as 17" with a 60% chance on a few occasions, and still nothing happened or even threaten to happen. The last run I recorded, indicated a 50/50 chance of 6" for the first 16 days of Feb. What did it for me, was the fact that the models could not even muster up a fantasy snowstorm, which told me we were never close to the real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, CIK62 said: It is not the winter that is going down the drain, it is the models and the entire meteorological science taking the hit. Somehow it must be explained why the analogs did not work out, and seemed to be running independent of the OPs, or the other way around if you like. I think we are now prone, and vulnerable to a major non-predicted weather phenomenon---that goes beyond this winter. Just look at the GEFS 16-day Snow Accumulation. Never showed even a low probability of the average 3"-4.5" typical 16-day total ever happening Everyone of 75 different daily runs should of shown this. It ran up as high as 17" with a 60% chance on a few occasions, and still nothing happened or even threaten to happen. What did it for me, was the fact that the models could not even muster up a fantasy snowstorm, which told me we were never close to the real thing. I suspect part of the reason the extended range guidance e.g., EPS weeklies, has fared poorly is that there remains significant room for improving the modeling of ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Having said that, I do believe that the NYC-Philadelphia-Washington corridor will wind up seeing 15"-25" snowfall for the winter as a whole once the season concludes under the assumption that a degree of Atlantic blocking (AO region) redevelops. Nevertheless, expectations should be tempered. Any guidance suggesting huge snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism until the scenario is in the near-term (under 120 hours out). The reality is that basinwide neutral-warm, not El Niño conditions have prevailed for five weeks now (ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly: +0.73°C and ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly: +0.40°C). The models assumed a stronger ENSO event, thus an atmospheric response was anticipated. That response did not take place, as warm but neutral conditions prevailed through much of January into February. Unfortunately, neutral-warm ENSO conditions are not conducive to big snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic region, especially in February. They can occur, but the frequency of such events is well below climatology. I suspect there could be one or two snowfall opportunities in the region before the month concludes, but believe the odds lean against a significant event (6" or more) in the New York City or Philadelphia areas. Upstate New York and central/northern New England have a better chance at seeing such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Once again, the GEFS shows the pattern changing on March 1st. The EPS and GEPS show it, but delay it until further into the 1st week of March. Does anyone believe it this time? I sure don’t. There have been head fakes from the models in the long term showing a cold and snow pattern here that has never materialized since mid November. Mirages for months now. Same song and dance over and over The only reason I would believe them is patterns usually have a reload, so I could see a few days of a positive PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The only reason I would believe them is patterns usually have a reload, so I could see a few days of a positive PNA. Besides the models sucking horribly in the long range this entire winter, I have reasons for believing that March is not going to be cold or snowy, wrote my reasons a couple of posts above this, just before. Until something proves to me otherwise, I’m going with below normal snowfall and above normal temps for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The things that separate this March from the past few, the +QBO has now descended into the bottom of the stratosphere and is gaining strength, and the stratospheric polar vortex is projected to get very strong, very cold and stratospheric winds are also forecasted to get very strong come March 1st. IMO this all supports a +NAM (+AO/+NAO) March The only hope for a more -NAO near the beginning of March would be a successful NATL wave breaking event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Eps doesn't look bad for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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